Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As outlined in an overview on Japanese drugstores, the sector has outperformed all retail formats and grown 30% since 2015.</li>
<li>The sector continues to consolidate too, with greater share for a smaller number of leading firms.</li>
<li>This is being driven by organic expansion in and outside drugstores as well as M&amp;A, with a lot more of both to come.</li>
</ul>


As outlined in an overview on Japanese drugstores, the sector has outperformed all retail formats and grown 30% since 2015.
The sector continues to consolidate too, with greater share for a smaller number of leading firms.
This is being driven by organic expansion in and outside drugstores as well as M&amp;A, with a lot more of both to come.


Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Nitori+ isn’t on the radar of most apparel retail competitors because they think a furniture retailer can’t sell apparel. But, as Nitori’s 18th N+ store attests, the home furnishings retailer may have struck gold with its chain for women over 40 thanks to a mix of disciplined supply chains, simple designs and low prices – and the fact that this age group is one of the few to grow in the next decade. We expect to see around 150 stores open within the next two years.</p>

Nitori+ isn’t on the radar of most apparel retail competitors because they think a furniture retailer can’t sell apparel. But, as Nitori’s 18th N+ store attests, the home furnishings retailer may have struck gold with its chain for women over 40 thanks to a mix of disciplined supply chains, simple designs and low prices – and the fact that this age group is one of the few to grow in the next decade. We expect to see around 150 stores open within the next two years.

N+ Nitori: Fashion the New Frontier for the Japanese Giant

<p>Monthly sales data for GMS chains and department store branches was withheld last year as companies were reluctant to reveal just how bad things were. For most GMS chains, however, it turns out CY2020 was a great year and for food supermarkets, the shift to buying more fresh food could endure beyond the pandemic. Department stores did poorly but there were some striking differences in performance between stores. </p>

Monthly sales data for GMS chains and department store branches was withheld last year as companies were reluctant to reveal just how bad things were. For most GMS chains, however, it turns out CY2020 was a great year and for food supermarkets, the shift to buying more fresh food could endure beyond the pandemic. Department stores did poorly but there were some striking differences in performance between stores. 

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS - 2nd APRIL •</strong></p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/828/original/2021-04-03_06-36-35.png?1617567965" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198828"></figure></section><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heiwado-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11411:1" rel="noopener">Heiwado (8276 JP)</a> continues to see a recovery in margins, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nachi-fujikoshi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9817:1" rel="noopener">Nachi Fujikoshi (6474 JP)</a> struggles. Earnings momentum is now slowing at the overvalued and Overbought staffing agency <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-pool-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7878:1" rel="noopener">S Pool (2471 JP)</a>.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/830/original/image_44290506921617568328843.png?1617568330" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198830"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/831/original/image_57651559131617568365442.png?1617568366" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198831"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/832/original/image_4237424241617568389958.png?1617568391" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198832"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 2nd APRIL •</strong> </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/833/original/2021-04-03_06-37-00.png?1617568432" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198833"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Heiwado also announced positive interim and annual forecasts for the current fiscal year - for more, see the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below.</p>
</div>


• RESULTS - 2nd APRIL •
RESULTS - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, Heiwado (8276 JP) continues to see a recovery in margins, while Nachi Fujikoshi (6474 JP) struggles. Earnings momentum is now slowing at the overvalued and Overbought staffing agency S Pool (2471 JP).
• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 2nd APRIL • 
FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Heiwado also announced positive interim and annual forecasts for the current fiscal year - for more, see the DETAIL section below.


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - ​​​​​​​​Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> and Toyota parts supplier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisan-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16945:1" rel="noopener">Aisan Industry (7283 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/343/original/2020-09-29_05-51-10.png?1601326304" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162343"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/344/original/2020-09-29_05-52-10.png?1601326345" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162344"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>9 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +3.4 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.4% Quarter YoY / -10.2% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.8ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>11 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 36% Positive / 0% Neutral / 64% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 44% Positive / 0% Neutral / 56% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -2.7 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is retailer Shimamura (8227 JP) and Toyota parts supplier Aisan Industry (7283 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
9 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +3.4 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -10.4% Quarter YoY / -10.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.8ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
11 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 36% Positive / 0% Neutral / 64% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 44% Positive / 0% Neutral / 56% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan

Japan

VALOR HOLDINGS CO., LTD. is a chain store operator which handles perishables, general foods, and daily-use sundry goods.  The Company is active to diversify into new business including home centers, restaurants, fitness clubs, and pet shops. Valor is based in Gifu area and moving into Aichi, Kanagawa, and Tokyo.

KATO SANGYO CO., LTD. is a wholesaler which handles processed foods including seasoning, dried foodstuffs, soft drinks, and frozen and canned foods.  The Company has a distribution network through supermarkets and co-op stores.

DAIKOKUTENBUSSAN CO., LTD. operates discount stores for food products and sundry goods.  The Company also wholesales processed food products. Daikokutenbussan develops and sells private brand merchandises.

Belc CO., LTD. operates food supermarkets in Saitama and Gunma area. The Company also manages restaurant business.

Aeon Hokkaido Corporation operates general merchandise stores called "My Basket"  based in Hokkaido.  The Company is a subsidiary of Aeon Group.

United Super Markets Holdings Inc is a holding company which was established through the integration of Kasumi Co., Maruetsu Inc, and MaxValu Kanto Co. The Company operates supermarkets, a retailing business, and manufactures, processes and imports the products.

Axial Retailing Inc operates food supermarket stores in central Niigata prefecture. The Company also runs food discount stores.

Arcs Co Ltd operates supermarket and discount store chain in the Hokkaido area.  The Company mainly retails foodstuffs, clothing, and sundry goods.

HALOWS CO., LTD. operates food supermarket chain stores in Hiroshima and Okayama Prefectures.  Most of the stores are open 24 hours a day.

KANSAI SUPER MARKET LTD. is a food supermarket chain operator which mainly deals in foodstuffs, daily products, and miscellaneous goods.  The Company has markets in Hyogo and Osaka areas.

PT Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk operates a chain of retail stores.  The Company operates convenience stores in Indonesia.

United Natural Foods, Inc. distributes natural foods and related products.  The Company offers natural products consisting of groceries and general merchandise, nutritional supplements, bulk and foodservice products, personal care items, perishables, and frozen foods.

SpartanNash Company provides food wholesale and retail distribution services to retail customers. The Company also assists in the process of gathering and delivering food to American Military servicemen and women in the United States and abroad.

Marr SpA distributes food.  The Company supplies food and non-food items to hotels, restaurants, and canteens.

Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion SA (DIA) provides the retail sale of food products through owned or franchised self-service stores. The Company offers the deposit and storage of goods and products of all types, both for the company and for other companies. DIA extends its services in both domestic and foreign markets.

Almacenes Exito S.A. operates retail stores in Medellin, Bogota, and Cali, Colombia.  The Company sells groceries, soft line goods, and general merchandise at low prices.

Robinsons Retail Holdings, Inc. operates various retail outlets. The Company owns and operates supermarkets, department, home improvement, convenience, drug, and other specialty stores. Robinsons Retail Holdings serves customers in Philippines.

Cosco Capital, Inc. operates as a retail holding company. The Company owns a diverse portfolio of real estate holdings that includes retail outlets, pharmacy chains, restaurants, wine and liquor distribution businesses, and unibanks. Cosco Capital focuses on the retail, real estate, liquor distribution and oil and mineral exploration industries in the Philippines.

Sanjiang Shopping Club Company Limited operates community budget supermarket franchises. The Company provides customers with retail services.

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc through its subsidiary operates in the food industry. The Company provides healthy foods, vitamins, and supplements including allergy, aloe products, amino acids,  antioxidants, animal products, beverages, medical, cleansing and clearance, weight loss,  electrolytes, energy, cosmetics, natural, minerals, vitamins, pain relief, and supplements.

Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage (NGVC US)

HEIWADO CO., LTD. operates supermarkets mainly in Shiga Prefecture.  The Company also operates restaurants, real estate, bowling alleys, and convenience stores.

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Heiwado Co Ltd (8276 JP)

Drugstores in Japan: Winners and Losers

Japan's drugstore sector continues to grow but only a few retailers will emerge as winners as competitors carve out greater market share.

Michael Causton

N+ Nitori: Fashion the New Frontier for the Japanese Giant

Some worry that Nitori is reaching saturation in the Japanese home market but, as well as more growth in that area including through category...

Michael Causton

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

A review of the 2020 performance of Japanese GMS chains and department stores. There is more growth for food-based GMS retailers but department...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

RESULTS - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, Heiwado (8276 JP) continues to see a recovery in margins,...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Drugstores in Japan: Winners and Losers

Japan's drugstore sector continues to grow but only a few retailers will emerge as winners as competitors carve out greater market share.

Michael Causton

N+ Nitori: Fashion the New Frontier for the Japanese Giant

Some worry that Nitori is reaching saturation in the Japanese home market but, as well as more growth in that area including through category...

Michael Causton

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

A review of the 2020 performance of Japanese GMS chains and department stores. There is more growth for food-based GMS retailers but department...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - ​​​​​​​​Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

RESULTS - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, Heiwado (8276 JP) continues to see a recovery in margins,...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan