European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Valora has agreed to a CHF 260/share cash offer (52% premium, 7.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 24.7x Fwd P/E) from FEMSA, which intends to use it as a platform for European expansion.</li>
<li>I consider the offer as fair (my DCF valuation of Valora is CHF 252.2/share, WACC 8.5%, 1.7% implied perpetuity growth rate).</li>
<li>Valora should benefit from FEMSA's know-how and added scale. A counterbid could be possible from the likes of Migros and Coop.</li>
</ul>


Valora has agreed to a CHF 260/share cash offer (52% premium, 7.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 24.7x Fwd P/E) from FEMSA, which intends to use it as a platform for European expansion.
I consider the offer as fair (my DCF valuation of Valora is CHF 252.2/share, WACC 8.5%, 1.7% implied perpetuity growth rate).
Valora should benefit from FEMSA's know-how and added scale. A counterbid could be possible from the likes of Migros and Coop.


FEMSA/Valora Holding: Fair Offer and Possible Counterbid

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June: Alba, 40.3%; GBL, 34.7%; Heineken Holdings to 20.9%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 15.6%; </li>
<li>Porsche Automobile Holding to 35.3%. Rio Tinto DLC widened to 23.4%.  Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities to bet on tightening discounts.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June: Alba, 40.3%; GBL, 34.7%; Heineken Holdings to 20.9%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 15.6%; 
Porsche Automobile Holding to 35.3%. Rio Tinto DLC widened to 23.4%.  Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities to bet on tightening discounts.
Recommended trades: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: June ‘22 Report

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Emperador (Emp) is looking to raise up to US$750m via a secondary listing in Singapore.</li>
<li>Emp is the Philippines’ largest liquor company and the world’s largest brandy producer. Its products are sold in over 100 countries.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the company's past performance.</li>
</ul>


Emperador (Emp) is looking to raise up to US$750m via a secondary listing in Singapore.
Emp is the Philippines’ largest liquor company and the world’s largest brandy producer. Its products are sold in over 100 countries.
In this note, we look at the company's past performance.


Emperador Secondary Listing - Driven by Whisky, Supported by Brandy

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion (vs US$2 billion previously), according to press reports. </li>
<li>In 1HFY2022, the group revenue returned to growth due to Vietnam. The easing of restrictions in Thailand should boost volumes in 2HFY2022.  </li>
<li>Creditably despite rising raw material costs, the margins remained steady helped by forward buying contracts. However, the unwinding of the forward contracts will likely lead to margin pressures in FY2023.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion (vs US$2 billion previously), according to press reports. 
In 1HFY2022, the group revenue returned to growth due to Vietnam. The easing of restrictions in Thailand should boost volumes in 2HFY2022.  
Creditably despite rising raw material costs, the margins remained steady helped by forward buying contracts. However, the unwinding of the forward contracts will likely lead to margin pressures in FY2023.


ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have all widened during April: Alba, to 39%; GBL to 34.9%; Heineken Holdings to 21%; Industrivärden C to 15.4%; Investor B to 16%;</li>
<li>Porsche Automobile Holding to 32%. Rio Tinto DLC widened to 13.3%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities to bet on tightening discounts.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Investor B vs. listed assets; Porsche vs. VW (long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR), Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have all widened during April: Alba, to 39%; GBL to 34.9%; Heineken Holdings to 21%; Industrivärden C to 15.4%; Investor B to 16%;
Porsche Automobile Holding to 32%. Rio Tinto DLC widened to 13.3%. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities to bet on tightening discounts.
Recommended trades: GBL vs. listed assets, Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Investor B vs. listed assets; Porsche vs. VW (long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR), Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: May ‘22 Report

Netherlands

Heineken NV produces and distributes beverages internationally. The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names.

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Heineken NV (HEIA NA)

FEMSA/Valora Holding: Fair Offer and Possible Counterbid

FEMSA intends to break into European convenience retail/food with a fair cash offer for Valora. A counterbid is not to be ruled out from the likes...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: June ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets, it pays...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Emperador Secondary Listing - Driven by Whisky, Supported by Brandy

Emperador (Emp) is looking to raise up to US$750m via a secondary listing in Singapore. In this note, we look at the company's past performance.

Sumeet Singh

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?

BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion. In this note, we look at the latest set of results and highlight the key...

Arun George

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: May ‘22 Report

The discounts to NAV of all holdcos covered in this monthly insight have all widened. It seems a good time to bet on tightening discounts on short...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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