External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><ul><li>High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.</li><li>Mixed realisation gains QoQ: While energy cost continues to rise QoQ, the industry could not fully pass on the inflation across all regions.</li><li>Cost inflation elevated: We estimate that overall fuel costs would soar 7/42% QoQ/YoY amid rising imported coal and pet coke prices.</li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li> </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p></div></div></div>

High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.Mixed realisation gains QoQ: While energy cost continues to rise QoQ, the industry could not fully pass on the inflation across all regions.Cost inflation elevated: We estimate that overall fuel costs would soar 7/42% QoQ/YoY amid rising imported coal and pet coke prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement - Cost Inflation Continues, Margin Contracts

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

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<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Weak seasonal demand and decline in prices against the backdrop of high input costs would mean muted realizations</li><li>The trend in cement pricing has been discouraging so far.</li><li>The news regarding CCI’s investigation on cement companies might be a factor for subdued pricing.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Weak seasonal demand and decline in prices against the backdrop of high input costs would mean muted realizationsThe trend in cement pricing has been discouraging so far.The news regarding CCI’s investigation on cement companies might be a factor for subdued pricing.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Sector - Elevated Energy Costs to Weigh on Margins

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Summary of change in recommendation of our coverage universe: We have cut targets prices for our covered companies by 10-30% on account of reduced earnings expectations as well as lower target multiples.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Near term earnings outlook weak and positive triggers missing: We expect earnings to remain weak for the cement sector for the next two quarters on account of elevated costs and weak realizations amid a seasonally weak demand period.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Reversal in coal and crude prices can offer some solace: We believe that high competitive intensity will subside once the inflationary pressures recede and hence reversal of higher coal and crude prices is important.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Summary of change in recommendation of our coverage universe: We have cut targets prices for our covered companies by 10-30% on account of reduced earnings expectations as well as lower target multiples.Near term earnings outlook weak and positive triggers missing: We expect earnings to remain weak for the cement sector for the next two quarters on account of elevated costs and weak realizations amid a seasonally weak demand period.Reversal in coal and crude prices can offer some solace: We believe that high competitive intensity will subside once the inflationary pressures recede and hence reversal of higher coal and crude prices is important.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Sector - Headwinds Galore; Turning 'neutral' on the Sector

<div><div><div><ul><li>JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).</li></ul><div><div><ul><li>The Ramco Cements: We maintain ADD on The Ramco Cements (TRCL), with a revised target price of INR 745/share (13x Mar-24E EBITDA).</li><li>Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain BUY on Nuvoco Vistas, with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (11x its consolidated Mar-24E EBITDA).</li></ul><div><div><div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).The Ramco Cements: We maintain ADD on The Ramco Cements (TRCL), with a revised target price of INR 745/share (13x Mar-24E EBITDA).Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain BUY on Nuvoco Vistas, with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (11x its consolidated Mar-24E EBITDA).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, The Ramco Cements, Nuvoco Vistas, Heidelberg Cement, Karur Vysya Bank

Equity Bottom-Up

Heidelberg Cement India / Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 performance: HEIM reported adjusted revenue of Rs5.99bn, flat YoY and 2% ahead of our estimate.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Volume at 1.23mn mt came in 2.7% ahead of our estimate whereas realization was 1% lower than estimate.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Capex plans: As mentioned earlier, significant long-term capex plans are missing, and the company is focusing on increasing capacity marginally through debottlenecking.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

4QFY22 performance: HEIM reported adjusted revenue of Rs5.99bn, flat YoY and 2% ahead of our estimate.Volume at 1.23mn mt came in 2.7% ahead of our estimate whereas realization was 1% lower than estimate.Capex plans: As mentioned earlier, significant long-term capex plans are missing, and the company is focusing on increasing capacity marginally through debottlenecking.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Heidelberg Cement India Ltd - Capex Visibility Still Missing

India

Heidelbergcement India Ltd. manufactures portland slag cement and portland pozzolana cement.

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Heidelberg Cement India (HEIM IN)

Cement - Cost Inflation Continues, Margin Contracts

High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.

HDFC Securities

Cement Sector - Elevated Energy Costs to Weigh on Margins

1QFY23 earnings for the cement sector will be muted as we expect margin pressure to continue in the near term due to higher operating costs,...

Nirmal Bang

Cement Sector - Headwinds Galore; Turning 'neutral' on the Sector

We are turning ‘neutral’ on the cement sector as we believe that there are multiple headwinds, which will inhibit earnings growth and in turn lead...

Nirmal Bang

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, The Ramco Cements, Nuvoco Vistas, Heidelberg Cement, Karur Vysya Bank

JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).

HDFC Securities

Heidelberg Cement India Ltd - Capex Visibility Still Missing

Heidelberg Cement (HEIM) reported marginally better set of numbers for 4QFY22 as adjusted EBITDA at Rs980mn was in line with consensus estimate and...

Nirmal Bang

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