Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aster-dm-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23662:1" rel="noopener">Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)</a> shares took a beating as Olympus Capital offloaded ~49M shares at a price range of INR405.00–406.72 (~7% discount to the last close price).</li>
<li>GCC business separation is expected to complete in Q4FY24. Aster DM plans to consider distributing 70–80% of the upfront consideration of $903M as dividend to its shareholders.</li>
<li>Stake sale by Olympus Capital is not a warning sign for the company. Despite CGHS rate overhang, we think recent pullback in Aster DM share provides an attractive entry point.</li>
</ul>



Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) shares took a beating as Olympus Capital offloaded ~49M shares at a price range of INR405.00–406.72 (~7% discount to the last close price).
GCC business separation is expected to complete in Q4FY24. Aster DM plans to consider distributing 70–80% of the upfront consideration of $903M as dividend to its shareholders.
Stake sale by Olympus Capital is not a warning sign for the company. Despite CGHS rate overhang, we think recent pullback in Aster DM share provides an attractive entry point.


Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN): Recent Correction Can Be a Good Entry Point

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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HealthCare Global Enterprises / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HCG's cancer segment reported decent revenue growth of 14% YoY in Q1FY24. EBITDA margin came in weaker than expected due to a few transient adverse factors.</li>
<li>HCG is hitting all the right notes to drive growth. It is beefing up clinical talent to attract patients. It is also making strategic tuck-in acquisitions to expand its presence.  </li>
<li>As cancer treatment is becoming more advanced, the mix of immunotherapy and hi-tech treatment is growing, helping the realization and the profitability to improve.</li>
</ul>


HCG's cancer segment reported decent revenue growth of 14% YoY in Q1FY24. EBITDA margin came in weaker than expected due to a few transient adverse factors.
HCG is hitting all the right notes to drive growth. It is beefing up clinical talent to attract patients. It is also making strategic tuck-in acquisitions to expand its presence.  
As cancer treatment is becoming more advanced, the mix of immunotherapy and hi-tech treatment is growing, helping the realization and the profitability to improve.


HCG: Hitting All The Right Notes To Scale Up

Rainbow Children's Medicare / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rainbow-children-s-medicare-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35874:1" rel="noopener">Rainbow Children's Hospital (RAINBOW IN)</a> recorded 21% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY24 to INR2.9B, driven by increase in pediatric surgical cases and deliveries, and addition of new bed capacities.</li>
<li>Lower occupancies in new hospitals and higher expenses impacted profitability. In Q1FY24, EBITDA margin declined 407 bps YoY to 30.5%, while net profit margin contracted 190 bps YoY to 14.4%.</li>
<li>The company will add 270 beds in the current financial year. By FY27, RCML aims to increase its bed capacity by 56% to 2,585 from current bed capacity of 1,655.  </li>
</ul>



Rainbow Children's Hospital (RAINBOW IN) recorded 21% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY24 to INR2.9B, driven by increase in pediatric surgical cases and deliveries, and addition of new bed capacities.
Lower occupancies in new hospitals and higher expenses impacted profitability. In Q1FY24, EBITDA margin declined 407 bps YoY to 30.5%, while net profit margin contracted 190 bps YoY to 14.4%.
The company will add 270 beds in the current financial year. By FY27, RCML aims to increase its bed capacity by 56% to 2,585 from current bed capacity of 1,655.  


Rainbow Children's Hospital (RAINBOW IN): Started FY24 On Strong Note; Capacity Expansions Underway

<ul>
<li>HCG ended FY23 with decent profitability and is on track to see significant scale up over the next 12-18 months as its emerging centers become mature.</li>
<li>During the course of the next couple of years, HCG is also looking to enhance its presence through the inorganic route.</li>
<li>We project that HCG may do a PAT of INR 200cr by FY25. At the current market cap of INR 4450cr, HCG is attractively valued at 22x per FY25E PAT. </li>
</ul>


HCG ended FY23 with decent profitability and is on track to see significant scale up over the next 12-18 months as its emerging centers become mature.
During the course of the next couple of years, HCG is also looking to enhance its presence through the inorganic route.
We project that HCG may do a PAT of INR 200cr by FY25. At the current market cap of INR 4450cr, HCG is attractively valued at 22x per FY25E PAT. 


HCG: Emerging Centers Are Inching Closer to Maturity

<ul>
<li>HCG continues to scale up well as its new centers are maturing. Its mature centers are also growing at a healthy pace.</li>
<li>Margins are improving across the board led by 1) Realization Improvement 2) Operational Efficiencies 3) Operating Leverage and 4) Improving Mix of Cases.</li>
<li>FY24 is all set to be a defining year in terms of HCG's financial performance across growth and profitability.</li>
</ul>


HCG continues to scale up well as its new centers are maturing. Its mature centers are also growing at a healthy pace.
Margins are improving across the board led by 1) Realization Improvement 2) Operational Efficiencies 3) Operating Leverage and 4) Improving Mix of Cases.
FY24 is all set to be a defining year in terms of HCG's financial performance across growth and profitability.


HCG: Firing On All Cylinders - All Set For FY24 To Be A Defining Year

India

HealthCare Global Enterprises Limited provides medical and surgical hospital services. The Hospital offers cancer care, chemotherapy, cyberknife surgery, surgical, radiation, and medical oncology services. HealthCare Global Enterprises operates worldwide.

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HealthCare Global Enterprises (HCG IN)

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN): Recent Correction Can Be a Good Entry Point

Aster DM shares drop after Olympus Capital sells 49M shares at a block deal. Stake sale is not a concern. The company is separating its GCC...

Tina Banerjee

HCG: Hitting All The Right Notes To Scale Up

HCG offers an upside potential of 60%+ over the next couple of years, as the business scales up. With cancer treatment becoming more complex, HCG's...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Rainbow Children's Hospital (RAINBOW IN): Started FY24 On Strong Note; Capacity Expansions Underway

Rainbow recorded an impressive 21% YoY revenue growth to INR2.9B in Q1FY24, driven by increase in pediatric surgical cases and deliveries. The...

Tina Banerjee

HCG: Emerging Centers Are Inching Closer to Maturity

An investment in HCG offers an upside potential of 70%+ over the next couple of years, as its emerging centers mature. We estimate HCG to do a PAT...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HCG: Firing On All Cylinders - All Set For FY24 To Be A Defining Year

HCG is set up well to deliver a strong performance in FY24. At current valuation, it offers an upside potential of 90%+ over the next couple of years.

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN): Recent Correction Can Be a Good Entry Point

​Aster DM shares drop after Olympus Capital sells 49M shares at a block deal. Stake sale is not a concern. The company is separating its GCC...

Tina Banerjee

HCG: Hitting All The Right Notes To Scale Up

HCG offers an upside potential of 60%+ over the next couple of years, as the business scales up. With cancer treatment becoming more complex, HCG's...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Rainbow Children's Hospital (RAINBOW IN): Started FY24 On Strong Note; Capacity Expansions Underway

Rainbow recorded an impressive 21% YoY revenue growth to INR2.9B in Q1FY24, driven by increase in pediatric surgical cases and deliveries. The...

Tina Banerjee

HCG: Emerging Centers Are Inching Closer to Maturity

An investment in HCG offers an upside potential of 70%+ over the next couple of years, as its emerging centers mature. We estimate HCG to do a PAT...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HCG: Firing On All Cylinders - All Set For FY24 To Be A Defining Year

HCG is set up well to deliver a strong performance in FY24. At current valuation, it offers an upside potential of 90%+ over the next couple of years.

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Aster DM shares drop after Olympus Capital sells 49M shares at a block deal. Stake sale is not a concern. The company is separating its GCC...