Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* New COO, essentially replaces current CEO - who is under investigation; and * As discussed in our May 9, 2018 note, this bank is an absolute mess which in all likelihood should fail . We wish COO Bakshi all the best. However, this bank would be a challenge to even the best turnaround artists. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>ICICI Bank (ICICI.IN/ICN.US) announced the appointment of Mr. Sandeep Bakhshi – an ICICI veteran – as a full-time director and Chief Operating Officer (COO). subject to regulatory…

* New COO, essentially replaces current CEO - who is under investigation; and * As discussed in our May 9, 2018 note, this bank is an absolute mess which in all likelihood should fail . We wish COO Bakshi all the best. However, this bank would be a challenge to even the best turnaround artists. Investment SummaryICICI Bank (ICICI.IN/ICN.US) announced the appointment of Mr. Sandeep Bakhshi – an ICICI veteran – as a full-time director and Chief Operating Officer (COO). subject to regulatory…

ICICI Bank - New COO Cannot Turn The Titanic Around

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN/HDB.US) continues to post strong net profit growth underpinned by strong lending growth (19% YoY in F18) with market share gains both in retail and wholesale. HDFC Bank, unlike its competitors, also has de miminis balance sheet stress, while its cost of funds is the lowest among all Indian banks. More importantly, HDFC…

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit. Investment SummaryHDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN/HDB.US) continues to post strong net profit growth underpinned by strong lending growth (19% YoY in F18) with market share gains both in retail and wholesale. HDFC Bank, unlike its competitors, also has de miminis balance sheet stress, while its cost of funds is the lowest among all Indian banks. More importantly, HDFC…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised interest rates by 25bps in early June.  While one could argue that the inflationary pressures from oil prices have more to do with supply than demand, this is none the less the driver of the rate rise. If micro data is a better reflection of the true health of corporate India, with poor financial metrics and high, worsening bank non-performing loans (NPLs), then raised interest rates can be a net negative. While not particularly large in absolute terms…

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised interest rates by 25bps in early June.  While one could argue that the inflationary pressures from oil prices have more to do with supply than demand, this is none the less the driver of the rate rise. If micro data is a better reflection of the true health of corporate India, with poor financial metrics and high, worsening bank non-performing loans (NPLs), then raised interest rates can be a net negative. While not particularly large in absolute terms…

India Banks – Rising Rates Can Drive Marginal NPLs

The question is somewhat rhetorical. Perhaps the customer experience will be better at private banks than government banks, in India. The story may be similar for capital levels and non-performing loans (NPLs). But the figures are not completely one-sided. We believe that the long-held view that India’s private banks are so incredibly superior to India’s government banks begins to fall flat when we examine the pace of NPL formation. This applies not only to new NPLs from worsening credit…

The question is somewhat rhetorical. Perhaps the customer experience will be better at private banks than government banks, in India. The story may be similar for capital levels and non-performing loans (NPLs). But the figures are not completely one-sided. We believe that the long-held view that India’s private banks are so incredibly superior to India’s government banks begins to fall flat when we examine the pace of NPL formation. This applies not only to new NPLs from worsening credit…

India Banks – Are Private Banks Really Better than Government Banks?

* Not a Pretty Girl: ICICI Bank's (ICICIBANK.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] stated NPLs amount to 10.6%; reserve cover is too light by INR 325 bn; and complying with regulatory capital standards will be a challenge. NIMs and growth will be a challenge on a go forward basis as well.* Awful FYE 4Q18 Results: Excluding the INR 26.9 bn net gain associated with a stake sale in ICICI Securities (ISEC.IN) and other losses, ICICI’s core operating result would have been staunchly negative at INR 12.7 bn – an…

* Not a Pretty Girl: ICICI Bank's (ICICIBANK.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] stated NPLs amount to 10.6%; reserve cover is too light by INR 325 bn; and complying with regulatory capital standards will be a challenge. NIMs and growth will be a challenge on a go forward basis as well.* Awful FYE 4Q18 Results: Excluding the INR 26.9 bn net gain associated with a stake sale in ICICI Securities (ISEC.IN) and other losses, ICICI’s core operating result would have been staunchly negative at INR 12.7 bn – an…

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

ICICI Bank - New COO Cannot Turn The Titanic Around

* New COO, essentially replaces current CEO - who is under investigation; and * As discussed in our May 9, 2018 note, this bank is an absolute mess...

Thomas J. Monaco

HDFC Bank – Rocking and Rolling

* Solid Franchise Buttressed By Strong Three Year Plan;* NBFC is the Cherry On Top; and * SOE Bank Headaches Suggests Much Low Hanging Fruit....

Thomas J. Monaco

India Banks – Rising Rates Can Drive Marginal NPLs

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised interest rates by 25bps in early June. While one could argue that the inflationary pressures from oil...

Daniel Tabbush

India Banks – Are Private Banks Really Better than Government Banks?

The question is somewhat rhetorical. Perhaps the customer experience will be better at private banks than government banks, in India. The story may...

Daniel Tabbush

ICICI Bank – Taking the Lipstick Off

* Not a Pretty Girl: ICICI Bank's (ICICIBANK.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] stated NPLs amount to 10.6%; reserve cover is too light by INR 325 bn; and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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