Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger could complete earlier than previously expected, triggering <em>intra-review</em> index replacements.</li>
<li>Separately, I have presented some interesting new trading ideas involving some of the index change candidates, and I discuss the status of pre-existing trade ideas.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
The HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) - HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger could complete earlier than previously expected, triggering intra-review index replacements.
Separately, I have presented some interesting new trading ideas involving some of the index change candidates, and I discuss the status of pre-existing trade ideas.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Some Interesting Long-Short Trades

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Five Star Business Finance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/five-star-business-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35238:1" rel="noopener">Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN)</a> raised around US$190m in its India IPO in Nov 2022.</li>
<li>Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN) raised around US$190m in its India IPO in Nov 2022.
Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Five Star IPO Lock-Up - Over US$1.3bn Lockup Release with Less than US$1m ADV

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> merger will result in capping and funding changes on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> constituents.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.</li>
</ul>


The HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) / HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) merger will result in capping and funding changes on the Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) constituents.
We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.
The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bikaji-foods-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36502:1" rel="noopener">Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN)</a>, an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.</li>
<li>Bikaji was the third largest ethnic snacks company in India and the second fastest growing company in the Indian organized snacks market in FY22, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.
Bikaji was the third largest ethnic snacks company in India and the second fastest growing company in the Indian organized snacks market in FY22, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> reported a steady and broadly in-line-with-expected Q4FY23 earnings. In particular, its growth in deposits at 8.7% QoQ was commendable.</li>
<li>Advances also grew at a healthy pace of 6% QoQ. Retail advances grew 5% QoQ, while CRB (Commercial and Rural Banking) grew the most at 9.7% QoQ.</li>
<li>Aided by low credit costs, HDFCB continues to invest in expanding its geographical and digital distribution to deepen its penetration.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) reported a steady and broadly in-line-with-expected Q4FY23 earnings. In particular, its growth in deposits at 8.7% QoQ was commendable.
Advances also grew at a healthy pace of 6% QoQ. Retail advances grew 5% QoQ, while CRB (Commercial and Rural Banking) grew the most at 9.7% QoQ.
Aided by low credit costs, HDFCB continues to invest in expanding its geographical and digital distribution to deepen its penetration.


HDFC Bank: Steady Q4FY23 Results | Merger Update - RBI Concessions

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Some Interesting Long-Short Trades

Apart from the HDFC merger-related intra-review change, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 100 index (and the NIFTY Next 50 index) but I...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Five Star IPO Lock-Up - Over US$1.3bn Lockup Release with Less than US$1m ADV

Five Star Business Finance (FIVESTAR IN) raised around US$190m in its India IPO in Nov 2022. Its US$1.3bn worth IPO lockup expiry is coming up soon.

Sumeet Singh

HDFC/HDFCB Merger: Impact on Bank Nifty

The HDFC/HDFCB merger will result in a one-way turnover of around 8.4% for the Nifty Bank Index resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m...

Brian Freitas

Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang

Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six...

Sumeet Singh

HDFC Bank: Steady Q4FY23 Results | Merger Update - RBI Concessions

HDFCB reported a steady Q4FY23 quarter. In particular, the growth in deposits was attractive at 8.7% QoQ. At current valuation, HDFCB offers an...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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