External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect the thermal coal market to remain in a supply-driven surplus in FY24, and expect the Newcastle coal price to moderate to US$120/t.</li><li>Based on our forecast, we project 13-29% net profit declines in FY24 for the coal miners and expect earnings to bottom out only in FY25.</li><li>We retain our Neutral rating on the sector on undemanding valuations and attractive dividend yields (9.1-28.4%) to cushion declining earnings.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the thermal coal market to remain in a supply-driven surplus in FY24, and expect the Newcastle coal price to moderate to US$120/t.Based on our forecast, we project 13-29% net profit declines in FY24 for the coal miners and expect earnings to bottom out only in FY25.We retain our Neutral rating on the sector on undemanding valuations and attractive dividend yields (9.1-28.4%) to cushion declining earnings.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal Mining - FY24 Outlook: Soft demand and steady supply flow to drive further price normalization

<ul><li>We expect the thermal coal market to remain in a supply-driven surplus in FY24, and expect the Newcastle coal price to moderate to US$120/t. </li><li>Based on our forecast, we project 13-29% net profit declines in FY24 for the coal miners and expect earnings to bottom out only in FY25.</li><li>We retain our Neutral rating on the sector on undemanding valuations and attractive dividend yields (9.1-28.4%) to cushion declining earnings. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the thermal coal market to remain in a supply-driven surplus in FY24, and expect the Newcastle coal price to moderate to US$120/t. Based on our forecast, we project 13-29% net profit declines in FY24 for the coal miners and expect earnings to bottom out only in FY25.We retain our Neutral rating on the sector on undemanding valuations and attractive dividend yields (9.1-28.4%) to cushion declining earnings. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal Mining | FY24 Outlook: Soft Demand and Steady Supply Flow to Drive Further Price Normalization

<ul><li>Coal market’s Aug23 trade and inventory data in China and India indicated possible seasonal demand recovery may be under way.</li><li>Thus, we see a tactical opportunity in 4Q23 with preferred picks on ADRO (Buy, TP Rp4,500) and ITMG (Buy, TP Rp45,000) or HRUM (Buy, TP Rp2,700) for more high-beta plays.</li><li>We also see UNTR (Buy, TP Rp40,000) earnings to potentially outperform in 3Q23.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal market’s Aug23 trade and inventory data in China and India indicated possible seasonal demand recovery may be under way.Thus, we see a tactical opportunity in 4Q23 with preferred picks on ADRO (Buy, TP Rp4,500) and ITMG (Buy, TP Rp45,000) or HRUM (Buy, TP Rp2,700) for more high-beta plays.We also see UNTR (Buy, TP Rp40,000) earnings to potentially outperform in 3Q23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Coal Mining - A Tactical Opportunity in 4Q23 on Possible Seasonal Demand Recovery

<ul><li>Indonesia's GDP in 2Q23 exceeded expectations with strong growth of 5.17% y-y, with Household Consumption ticking strongly upward by 5.23% mainly underpinned by a combination of the festive season, long holidays and the disbursement of religious holiday allowances (THR), which contributed to increased purchasing power.</li><li>We revise up our Q3 &amp; FY GDP growth forecasts.</li><li>The anticipated fiscal expansion and infusion of election funds are poised to bolster consumption within the broader economy.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia's GDP in 2Q23 exceeded expectations with strong growth of 5.17% y-y, with Household Consumption ticking strongly upward by 5.23% mainly underpinned by a combination of the festive season, long holidays and the disbursement of religious holiday allowances (THR), which contributed to increased purchasing power.We revise up our Q3 &amp; FY GDP growth forecasts.The anticipated fiscal expansion and infusion of election funds are poised to bolster consumption within the broader economy.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

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Harum Energy (HRUM IJ)

Coal Mining - FY24 Outlook: Soft demand and steady supply flow to drive further price normalization

We expect the thermal coal market to remain in a supply-driven surplus in FY24, and expect the Newcastle coal price to moderate to US$120/t.

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal Mining | FY24 Outlook: Soft Demand and Steady Supply Flow to Drive Further Price Normalization

We think miners with higher exposure to the low-medium CV products shall fare better given the smaller projected decline in ASP. Our pecking order...

BRI Danareksa Research

Coal Mining - A Tactical Opportunity in 4Q23 on Possible Seasonal Demand Recovery

Coal market’s Aug23 trade and inventory data in China and India indicated possible seasonal demand recovery may be under way.

BRI Danareksa Research

Strategy - Sustaining Growth

The anticipated fiscal expansion and infusion of election funds are poised to bolster consumption within the broader economy.

BRI Danareksa Research

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