Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Out of favor for the past three years, global asset managers are making a comeback, technically speaking, as seen by (1) the industry’s breakout from a multi-year base, and (2) its breakout from a relative strength bottom. Further, the industry is resuming its secular trend of relative leadership within the financial sector.  In today’s report we highlight actionable names, most which are breaking out from either base or bottom patterns.

Out of favor for the past three years, global asset managers are making a comeback, technically speaking, as seen by (1) the industry’s breakout from a multi-year base, and (2) its breakout from a relative strength bottom. Further, the industry is resuming its secular trend of relative leadership within the financial sector.  In today’s report we highlight actionable names, most which are breaking out from either base or bottom patterns.

Global Asset Managers Are Breaking Out -- Add Exposure

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.  

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

There are a handful of listed banks in the UK. But there are nearly 300 UK banks in our SNL database, which include unlisted banks. These are mostly the subsidiaries of banks in other regions, including Asia. The immediate concern is how banks adjust their risk-weightings on their UK assets. S&amp;P and Moody's downgrades, will also affect UK bank counterparty risk. The more distant concern is the outlook for impairments on some of these assets, namely loans and corporate bonds. UK assets to group…

There are a handful of listed banks in the UK. But there are nearly 300 UK banks in our SNL database, which include unlisted banks. These are mostly the subsidiaries of banks in other regions, including Asia. The immediate concern is how banks adjust their risk-weightings on their UK assets. S&amp;P and Moody's downgrades, will also affect UK bank counterparty risk. The more distant concern is the outlook for impairments on some of these assets, namely loans and corporate bonds. UK assets to group…

United Kingdom

Hargreaves Lansdown PLC provides investment management services. The Company offers its services in stock brokerage, pension fund management, financial planning, and asset and wealth management. Hargreaves Lansdown serves investors in the United Kingdom.

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Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/ LN)

Global Asset Managers Are Breaking Out -- Add Exposure

Out of favor for the past three years, global asset managers are making a comeback, technically speaking, as seen by (1) the industry’s breakout...

Vermilion Research

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as...

Vermilion Research

The UK Economy - After Brexit

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Macro Chart Focus: Brexit and the Yen

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF...

Naomi Fink

UK Subsidiaries of Asian Banks

There are a handful of listed banks in the UK. But there are nearly 300 UK banks in our SNL database, which include unlisted banks. These are...

Daniel Tabbush

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