Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX liquidity factor removal names (upweights) for April 2023 were announced after the close on Friday 7th April 2023 as expected.</li>
<li>According to the announcement, 22 names will see their Liquidity Factors removed and experience index inflows later this month. </li>
<li>Today was the first day of trading post-announcement and the 22 names gained +1.1% (+0.47% vs the TOPIX Index). I feel there could be more upside for some names.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX liquidity factor removal names (upweights) for April 2023 were announced after the close on Friday 7th April 2023 as expected.
According to the announcement, 22 names will see their Liquidity Factors removed and experience index inflows later this month. 
Today was the first day of trading post-announcement and the 22 names gained +1.1% (+0.47% vs the TOPIX Index). I feel there could be more upside for some names.


TOPIX Big April Basket 23: 100% Hit Rate for High Conviction Basket; Focus on Surprises Next

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/213/original/File%202020-04-23%205%2019%2052.jpeg?1587587091" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129213"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/215/original/File%202020-04-23%205%2019%2008.jpeg?1587587183" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129215"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Marco Piani</div>TIMELINES - The excellent timelines prepared by @Marco_Piani provide a novel interpretation of Japan's 'rank' in the progression of COVID-19 on terms of both cases and deaths. The data confirms that Japan is 'lagging' the World in both respects. Also of note are the 'second waves' that are appearing in several countries, including South Africa, Argentina, Poland and the Philippines. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/216/original/2020-04-23_05-29-31.png?1587587408" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129216"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Arbor Data Science</div>GOING-OUT RELATED - As the hospital system overflows, the government is becoming more strident in its attempts to have greater compliance with the current 'suggestions' on social distancing and working from home diverting attention from their failure to anticipate the breakdown of the medical system.  PM Abe has resorted to pleading with citizens not to make their traditional home-town visits over Golden Week, while the still-crowded supermarkets may be required to limit the number of shoppers at any one time. As is evident from the Google search data above, Japan (and Singapore and latterly Indonesia) are on diverging 'paths' from most European countries, and it is premature to consider any exit strategies. We conclude that the current states of emergency across all Japanese prefectures will be extended beyond the end of Golden Week on 6th May, probably to the end of next month.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/129/259/original/2020-04-23_07-06-14.png?1587593194" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="129259"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>IMPENDING PEAK - The first of the March year-end company results were announced yesterday and will become a deluge over the eight trading days either side of the Golden Week holidays. As many companies are now avoiding interim and annual forecasts, the absolute number of data points will be reduced. In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the nine results was 5:0:4; and for the 23 revisions/forecasts, the split was 10:1:12. Of the six companies reporting annual results, only one made a forecast for the current year. Dry cleaner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuyosha-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4492:1" rel="noopener">Hakuyosha (9731 JP)</a> withdrew its December year-end forecasts. Three companies cut their dividends; two increased. <blockquote>Everybody talks as if they know what is going to happen - nobody knows what is going to happen - Charlie Munger</blockquote>

Source • Marco PianiTIMELINES - The excellent timelines prepared by @Marco_Piani provide a novel interpretation of Japan's 'rank' in the progression of COVID-19 on terms of both cases and deaths. The data confirms that Japan is 'lagging' the World in both respects. Also of note are the 'second waves' that are appearing in several countries, including South Africa, Argentina, Poland and the Philippines. Source • Arbor Data ScienceGOING-OUT RELATED - As the hospital system overflows, the government is becoming more strident in its attempts to have greater compliance with the current 'suggestions' on social distancing and working from home diverting attention from their failure to anticipate the breakdown of the medical system.  PM Abe has resorted to pleading with citizens not to make their traditional home-town visits over Golden Week, while the still-crowded supermarkets may be required to limit the number of shoppers at any one time. As is evident from the Google search data above, Japan (and Singapore and latterly Indonesia) are on diverging 'paths' from most European countries, and it is premature to consider any exit strategies. We conclude that the current states of emergency across all Japanese prefectures will be extended beyond the end of Golden Week on 6th May, probably to the end of next month.Source • Japan AnalyticsIMPENDING PEAK - The first of the March year-end company results were announced yesterday and will become a deluge over the eight trading days either side of the Golden Week holidays. As many companies are now avoiding interim and annual forecasts, the absolute number of data points will be reduced. In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the nine results was 5:0:4; and for the 23 revisions/forecasts, the split was 10:1:12. Of the six companies reporting annual results, only one made a forecast for the current year. Dry cleaner Hakuyosha (9731 JP) withdrew its December year-end forecasts. Three companies cut their dividends; two increased. Everybody talks as if they know what is going to happen - nobody knows what is going to happen - Charlie Munger

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 22nd April - Timelines + JAL/ZOZO/Mizuno/CyberAgent

Asia Long-Short PM/Analyst

Curtis Lehnert

An old favorite in the Asian arbitrageur's investment universe is the Hang Lung stub. The Hang Lung Group acquired Hang Lung Properties (formerly named Amoy Properties) and designated the subsidiary as its property investment arm.  After both companies were listed in 1992, the same year that the company entered the mainland with its purchase of the Grand Gateway 66 and Plaza 66 in Shanghai, the pair was open to arbs. The Hang Lung Group now controls over RMB 130 (USD 19.4b) billion of property in Hong Kong and China. 
In the wonderful world of Asian holding companies, Hang Lung needs little introduction. However, in this insight I would like to highlight a trade idea. I will detail why I think now is the right time to setup a stub trade and some background information on the company and what assets constitute the stub. 
In this insight I will cover:
I. The Trade
II. The Stub Assets
III. My Track Record with Stub Trades

An old favorite in the Asian arbitrageur's investment universe is the Hang Lung stub. The Hang Lung Group acquired Hang Lung Properties (formerly named Amoy Properties) and designated the subsidiary as its property investment arm.  After both companies were listed in 1992, the same year that the company entered the mainland with its purchase of the Grand Gateway 66 and Plaza 66 in Shanghai, the pair was open to arbs. The Hang Lung Group now controls over RMB 130 (USD 19.4b) billion of property in Hong Kong and China. 
In the wonderful world of Asian holding companies, Hang Lung needs little introduction. However, in this insight I would like to highlight a trade idea. I will detail why I think now is the right time to setup a stub trade and some background information on the company and what assets constitute the stub. 
In this insight I will cover:
I. The Trade
II. The Stub Assets
III. My Track Record with Stub Trades

TRADE IDEA - Hang Lung (10 HK) Stub: A Timeless Arb

Japan

Hakuyosha Company, Ltd. provides overall laundry services.  The Company has outlets throughout Japan, and provides dry cleaning and laundry services. Hakuyosha also supplies linens to hotels.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hakuyosha Company (9731 JP)

TOPIX Big April Basket 23: 100% Hit Rate for High Conviction Basket; Focus on Surprises Next

There could be around US$450mn of flows and an average of 12 days of ADV to buy for the 13 names which I identify as "surprise" names. I expect...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 22nd April - Timelines + JAL/ZOZO/Mizuno/CyberAgent

TIMELINES - The excellent timelines prepared by @Marco_Piani provide a novel interpretation of Japan's 'rank' in the progression of COVID-19 on...

Campbell Gunn

TRADE IDEA - Hang Lung (10 HK) Stub: A Timeless Arb

An old favorite in the Asian arbitrageur's investment universe is the Hang Lung stub. The Hang Lung Group acquired Hang Lung Properties (formerly...

Curtis Lehnert

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)