Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

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<ul><li>Elections have consequences. The November 2024 elections in the US have ushered in not just a change in political landscape for the country and the makeup of the federal government but are likely to result in material changes to government policies and priorities for 2025 and beyond.</li><li>These include international trade, the federal regulatory environment, and tax policies that can affect consumer sentiment, company strategies when it comes to capital deployment, and end market dynamics.</li><li>While specifics could emerge in the coming months, we expect modest inflationary pressures from expected tariffs on imported goods to be largely offset by more constructive energy policies, tax incentives, and a reduced federal regulatory burden, along with a reduced federal government role in economic decision-making to lead to an improvement in economic growth in 2025.</li></ul>

Elections have consequences. The November 2024 elections in the US have ushered in not just a change in political landscape for the country and the makeup of the federal government but are likely to result in material changes to government policies and priorities for 2025 and beyond.These include international trade, the federal regulatory environment, and tax policies that can affect consumer sentiment, company strategies when it comes to capital deployment, and end market dynamics.While specifics could emerge in the coming months, we expect modest inflationary pressures from expected tariffs on imported goods to be largely offset by more constructive energy policies, tax incentives, and a reduced federal regulatory burden, along with a reduced federal government role in economic decision-making to lead to an improvement in economic growth in 2025.

The US Elections' Impact on 2025 Outlook - November 13, 2024

<ul><li>WTR-CMI this week. In a tough week for the market, the WTR- CMI Index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials technology stocks dipped 0.6%, while the large-cap heavy S&amp;P 500 declined 1.4%, with the Russell 2000 inching up 0.1%.</li><li>Strong rebounds in NGVT, ECVT, LAC, PLL, and AXTA nearly offset sharp declines in EAF, CMP, and HXL. YTD, our index is slightly outperforming the Russell 2000, increasing 10.4% versus the broader index’s 9.0% improvement, although both trail the S&amp;P 500’s 20.1% increase.</li><li>On a Y/Y basis, the WTR-CMI Index has narrowed the performance gap with the S&amp;P 500, improving 32.9% versus the large-cap index’s 35.2% appreciation, with the Russell 2000 bringing up the rear with a 32.4% rebound.</li></ul>

WTR-CMI this week. In a tough week for the market, the WTR- CMI Index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials technology stocks dipped 0.6%, while the large-cap heavy S&amp;P 500 declined 1.4%, with the Russell 2000 inching up 0.1%.Strong rebounds in NGVT, ECVT, LAC, PLL, and AXTA nearly offset sharp declines in EAF, CMP, and HXL. YTD, our index is slightly outperforming the Russell 2000, increasing 10.4% versus the broader index’s 9.0% improvement, although both trail the S&amp;P 500’s 20.1% increase.On a Y/Y basis, the WTR-CMI Index has narrowed the performance gap with the S&amp;P 500, improving 32.9% versus the large-cap index’s 35.2% appreciation, with the Russell 2000 bringing up the rear with a 32.4% rebound.

Mat-Chem Notes - Supply-Demand Balancing Act and Geopolitics of Energy Transition

<ul><li>WTR-CMI last week. In a down week for the market, with both the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 declining 4.2% and 5.7%, respectively, 29 of the 30 stocks in our WTR-CMI Index likewise saw their prices fall 4.0%, with AVD being the only exception, appreciating 9.1% for the week.</li><li>YTD, the S&amp;P 500, heavily weighted toward tech and internet stocks, has increased 13.4%, while our WTR-CMI Index has increased 7.2%, outperforming the broader Russell 2000’s 3.2% rise, despite lithium stocks’ 50%- <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">plus declines.</span></li><li>Recycled plastics market gaining acceptance. LYB announced the acquisition of German APK AG, a mechanical plastics recycler to bolster its circular economy and low-carbon credentials, while AVTN launched a pigment additive for plastics used in automotive plications made from recycled tires, as an alternative to carbon black, again aiming at helping its customers reduce their carbon impact while improving its own circular economy efforts.</li></ul>

WTR-CMI last week. In a down week for the market, with both the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 declining 4.2% and 5.7%, respectively, 29 of the 30 stocks in our WTR-CMI Index likewise saw their prices fall 4.0%, with AVD being the only exception, appreciating 9.1% for the week.YTD, the S&amp;P 500, heavily weighted toward tech and internet stocks, has increased 13.4%, while our WTR-CMI Index has increased 7.2%, outperforming the broader Russell 2000’s 3.2% rise, despite lithium stocks’ 50%- plus declines.Recycled plastics market gaining acceptance. LYB announced the acquisition of German APK AG, a mechanical plastics recycler to bolster its circular economy and low-carbon credentials, while AVTN launched a pigment additive for plastics used in automotive plications made from recycled tires, as an alternative to carbon black, again aiming at helping its customers reduce their carbon impact while improving its own circular economy efforts.

Mat-Chem Notes - Weakness of Industrial, Ag, and EV Markets Leaves Few Options

<ul><li>WTR-CMI keeping pace with broad markets. YTD, the S&amp;P 500 has appreciated 18%, compared with the 9.5% appreciation for the broader Russell 2000, while our WTR-CMI Index has improved 8.4%, held back primarily by lithium stocks, which are off anywhere from 37% for ALB to 68% for PLL.</li><li>Two companies in our index, RYAM and ECL, have outperformed even the tech-heavy S&amp;P 500, coming off a challenging 2023.</li><li>Unfortunately, with both lithium and ag markets still under pressure, we do not expect companies in our sector to outperform the broader markets in 2H24, although individual stock outperformance may continue.</li></ul>

WTR-CMI keeping pace with broad markets. YTD, the S&amp;P 500 has appreciated 18%, compared with the 9.5% appreciation for the broader Russell 2000, while our WTR-CMI Index has improved 8.4%, held back primarily by lithium stocks, which are off anywhere from 37% for ALB to 68% for PLL.Two companies in our index, RYAM and ECL, have outperformed even the tech-heavy S&amp;P 500, coming off a challenging 2023.Unfortunately, with both lithium and ag markets still under pressure, we do not expect companies in our sector to outperform the broader markets in 2H24, although individual stock outperformance may continue.

Mat-Chem Notes Caution - Canada Rail Strike, Weakening Ag-Chem Market, and Slower EV Adoption

<ul><li>Heavy lithium. Halfway through the year, the S&amp;P 500 has appreciated 15.4% YTD, driven by the strong performance of the Magnificent Seven, even as the remaining 490+ companies saw their stock prices move more in line with the Russell 2000, which itself posted an 7.8% gain YTD.</li><li>Over the same timeframe, the WTR-CMI Index delivered a disappointing 4.4% gain under the weight of lithium and graphite companies losing 36-62% of their value due to collapsing lithium and synthetic graphite prices, driven by slower growth of EVs and steel production and liquidation of excess inventories by customers, built over the course of 2022-23.</li><li><p>Sticky costs remain as pricing power wanes. Over the course of 2022-23, many companies experiencing a rapid rise in raw material costs, driven by higher petrochemical prices and rising costs of transportation and logistics aggressively raised prices in an attempt to preserve profits, if not profit margins. </p></li></ul>

Heavy lithium. Halfway through the year, the S&amp;P 500 has appreciated 15.4% YTD, driven by the strong performance of the Magnificent Seven, even as the remaining 490+ companies saw their stock prices move more in line with the Russell 2000, which itself posted an 7.8% gain YTD.Over the same timeframe, the WTR-CMI Index delivered a disappointing 4.4% gain under the weight of lithium and graphite companies losing 36-62% of their value due to collapsing lithium and synthetic graphite prices, driven by slower growth of EVs and steel production and liquidation of excess inventories by customers, built over the course of 2022-23.Sticky costs remain as pricing power wanes. Over the course of 2022-23, many companies experiencing a rapid rise in raw material costs, driven by higher petrochemical prices and rising costs of transportation and logistics aggressively raised prices in an attempt to preserve profits, if not profit margins. 

Mat-Chem Notes - Between a Rock and a Hard Place - 2H24 Outlook

United States

H.B. Fuller Company manufactures and markets adhesives, sealants, coatings, paints, and other specialty chemical products worldwide.  The Company's products are sold in countries that include North America, Europe, Latin America, the Asia Pacific region, India, the Middle East and Africa.

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H.B. Fuller Co. (FUL US)

The US Elections' Impact on 2025 Outlook - November 13, 2024

While specifics could emerge in the coming months, we expect modest inflationary pressures from expected tariffs on imported goods to be largely...

Water Tower Research

Mat-Chem Notes - Supply-Demand Balancing Act and Geopolitics of Energy Transition

In a tough week for the market, the WTR- CMI Index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials technology stocks dipped 0.6%, while the large-cap heavy...

Water Tower Research

Mat-Chem Notes - Weakness of Industrial, Ag, and EV Markets Leaves Few Options

YTD, the S&P 500, heavily weighted toward tech and internet stocks, has increased 13.4%, while our WTR-CMI Index has increased 7.2%, outperforming...

Water Tower Research

Mat-Chem Notes Caution - Canada Rail Strike, Weakening Ag-Chem Market, and Slower EV Adoption

Unfortunately, with both lithium and ag markets still under pressure, we do not expect companies in our sector to outperform the broader markets in...

Water Tower Research

Mat-Chem Notes - Between a Rock and a Hard Place - 2H24 Outlook

Over the same timeframe, the WTR-CMI Index delivered a disappointing 4.4% gain under the weight of lithium and graphite companies losing 36-62% of...

Water Tower Research

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