Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-integrated-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:105" rel="noopener">Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP)</a> 2H21 DPU -8.9% YoY; Office cap rates compressed while retail rental reversions improving   </li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a> 3Q22 Business Updates – High occupancies a priority against falling reversions</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascott-residence-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6560" rel="noopener">Ascott Residence Trust (ART SP)</a> 2H21 DPU +14% YoY; RevPAU rebounded strongly with plenty of growth initiatives in the pipelines</li></ul>

Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP) 2H21 DPU -8.9% YoY; Office cap rates compressed while retail rental reversions improving   Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP) 3Q22 Business Updates – High occupancies a priority against falling reversionsAscott Residence Trust (ART SP) 2H21 DPU +14% YoY; RevPAU rebounded strongly with plenty of growth initiatives in the pipelines

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (28Jan22) - CICT Office Cap Rates Compressed

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Jefferies strategist Chris Wood made an interesting comment in his 4Q21 Asia Maxima report. He expressed a bullish view on Singaporean residential property developers, quoting a 40% discount to book and rapidly improving fundamentals. Here is a short report on the sector to figure out whether his bullishness is warranted or not.
<ul>
<li>
Supply &amp; demand for residential property is not necessarily out of sync. The 2009-2013 period was a bubble and should not be seen as a baseline.
</li>
<li>
The retail, office and hospitality segments have suffered over the past two years due to cross-border travel restrictions, working from home during the pandemic and the threat from e-commerce. But several of these factors are one-off in nature.
</li>
<li>
I see value in City Developments, given high-quality assets, excellent execution and an upside of almost +60% using reasonable assumptions.
</li>
<li>
I’m also bullish on small-cap Bukit Sembawang, which sit on a valuable land bank and has won awards as one of the best property developers in Singapore.
</li>
</ul>

Jefferies strategist Chris Wood made an interesting comment in his 4Q21 Asia Maxima report. He expressed a bullish view on Singaporean residential property developers, quoting a 40% discount to book and rapidly improving fundamentals. Here is a short report on the sector to figure out whether his bullishness is warranted or not.


Supply &amp; demand for residential property is not necessarily out of sync. The 2009-2013 period was a bubble and should not be seen as a baseline.


The retail, office and hospitality segments have suffered over the past two years due to cross-border travel restrictions, working from home during the pandemic and the threat from e-commerce. But several of these factors are one-off in nature.


I see value in City Developments, given high-quality assets, excellent execution and an upside of almost +60% using reasonable assumptions.


I’m also bullish on small-cap Bukit Sembawang, which sit on a valuable land bank and has won awards as one of the best property developers in Singapore.



<h2>Singapore</h2><h3>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)</h3><table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;"> </td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">PRIME</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">KORE</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.85pt;">Period</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.85pt;">1H21</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.85pt;">1H21</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.9pt;">Gross Revenue (S$m)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.9pt;">72.1 (+1.2% YoY)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.9pt;">68.38 (-3% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;">NPI (S$m)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">46.3 (-2.3% YoY)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">40.58 (-3.1% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;">DPU (S$ c)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">3.33 (-5.4% YoY)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">3.16 (+1.9% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;">NAV per Unit (S$)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">0.86</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">0.82</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;">P/B (x)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">0.98</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">0.95</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;">Occupancy (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">91.7</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">90.5</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 7.2pt;">Reversion (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 7.2pt;">10.5</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 7.2pt;">5.4</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;">Gearing (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">34.4</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">37.1</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;">Cost of Debt (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">3.2</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">2.82</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;">1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">8.45</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">7.77</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;">Debt Hedged (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">86%</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">84.7</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.35pt;">Target Price</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">N/A</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.35pt;">N/A</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt; height: 14.85pt;">Rating</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.85pt;">N/A</td><td style="width: 141.2pt; height: 14.85pt;">N/A</td></tr></tbody></table>

SingaporeSREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached) PRIMEKOREPeriod1H211H21Gross Revenue (S$m)72.1 (+1.2% YoY)68.38 (-3% YoY)NPI (S$m)46.3 (-2.3% YoY)40.58 (-3.1% YoY)DPU (S$ c)3.33 (-5.4% YoY)3.16 (+1.9% YoY)NAV per Unit (S$)0.860.82P/B (x)0.980.95Occupancy (%)91.790.5Reversion (%)10.55.4Gearing (%)34.437.1Cost of Debt (%)3.22.821 Yr Fwd Yield (%)8.457.77Debt Hedged (%)86%84.7Target PriceN/AN/ARatingN/AN/A

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (04Aug21) - PRIME High Opex Offset Robust Reversions

<h2>Singapore</h2>
<h3>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)</h3>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
 
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
SGREIT
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
CDREIT
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
FEHT
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
OUECT
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
FIRT
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
FHT
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Period
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
2H21
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1H21
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1H21
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1H21
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1H21
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
9M21
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Gross Revenue (S$ m)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
92.9 (10.5% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
66.2 (27.2% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
41.6 (-6.1% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
133.5 (-6% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
38.9 (+0.9% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
NA
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
NPI (S$ m)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
69.8 (20.2% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
37.0 (24.4% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
36.2 (-6.2% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
109 (-3.1% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
37.6 (+0.2% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
NA
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
DPU (S$ c)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
2.07 (195.7% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.22 (-19.2% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.1 (+6.8% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.23 (+23% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.3 (-43.5% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
NA
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
NAV per Unit (S$)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.81
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.29
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.7912
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.58
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.3512
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
1H21: 0.66
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
P/B (x)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.75
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.95
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.73
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.34
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.75
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
0.79
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Occupancy (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
96.7
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
5 SG Hotels excl. W Hotel and NCQ: 73.5
6 SG Hotels excl. W Hotel: 70.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Hotels : 77.6
Service Residence : 76.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
91.7 (Commercial)
92.3 (SG Office)
89.6 (Mandarin  Gallery)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Not Disclosed
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
SG: 59.8
AUS: 44.3
UK: 18.8
JP: 31.3
MY: 7.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Reversion (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Not disclosed
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
RevPAR (% YoY):
SG: -19.5 (or -9.5 incl. W Hotel)
Maldives: +139.2
NZ: -31.8
Germany: +61.2
Italy: -84.4
JP: -27.9
UK: -21.8
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
RevPAR (% YoY):
Hotels: -35.4
Service Residence: -16.9 YoY
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
2Q21 Office reversions: -5.7 to +2.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Not Disclosed
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
RevPAR (% YoY):
SG: -31.4
AUS: -52.3
UK: -68.9
JP: -40.8
MY: -87.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Gearing (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
36.1
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
39.1
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
41.3
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
38
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
34.7
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
42.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Cost of Debt (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
3.28
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.9
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
2.1
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
3.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Not Disclosed
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
2.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
6.9
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
4.4
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
4.7
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
7.4
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
9.8 (annualized 1H21)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
3.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Debt Hedged (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
91
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
63.3
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
68.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
82.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Not Disclosed
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
77
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Target Price
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Under Review
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
N/A
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Rating
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Under Review
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
N/A
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Singapore
SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)




 


SGREIT


CDREIT


FEHT


OUECT


FIRT


FHT




Period


2H21


1H21


1H21


1H21


1H21


9M21




Gross Revenue (S$ m)


92.9 (10.5% YoY)


66.2 (27.2% YoY)


41.6 (-6.1% YoY)


133.5 (-6% YoY)


38.9 (+0.9% YoY)


NA




NPI (S$ m)


69.8 (20.2% YoY)


37.0 (24.4% YoY)


36.2 (-6.2% YoY)


109 (-3.1% YoY)


37.6 (+0.2% YoY)


NA




DPU (S$ c)


2.07 (195.7% YoY)


1.22 (-19.2% YoY)


1.1 (+6.8% YoY)


1.23 (+23% YoY)


1.3 (-43.5% YoY)


NA




NAV per Unit (S$)


0.81


1.29


0.7912


0.58


0.3512


1H21: 0.66




P/B (x)


0.75


0.95


0.73


1.34


0.75


0.79




Occupancy (%)


96.7


5 SG Hotels excl. W Hotel and NCQ: 73.5
6 SG Hotels excl. W Hotel: 70.2


Hotels : 77.6
Service Residence : 76.2


91.7 (Commercial)
92.3 (SG Office)
89.6 (Mandarin  Gallery)


Not Disclosed


SG: 59.8
AUS: 44.3
UK: 18.8
JP: 31.3
MY: 7.7




Reversion (%)


Not disclosed


RevPAR (% YoY):
SG: -19.5 (or -9.5 incl. W Hotel)
Maldives: +139.2
NZ: -31.8
Germany: +61.2
Italy: -84.4
JP: -27.9
UK: -21.8


RevPAR (% YoY):
Hotels: -35.4
Service Residence: -16.9 YoY


2Q21 Office reversions: -5.7 to +2.2


Not Disclosed


RevPAR (% YoY):
SG: -31.4
AUS: -52.3
UK: -68.9
JP: -40.8
MY: -87.7




Gearing (%)


36.1


39.1


41.3


38


34.7


42.1




Cost of Debt (%)


3.28


1.9


2.1


3.2


Not Disclosed


2.0




1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)


6.9


4.4


4.7


7.4


9.8 (annualized 1H21)


3.1




Debt Hedged (%)


91


63.3


68.2


82.2


Not Disclosed


77




Target Price


Under Review


N/A


N/A


N/A


N/A


N/A




Rating


Under Review


N/A


N/A


N/A


N/A


N/A





ASEAN Builder's Scoop (30Jul21) - SGREIT Solid Set of Results

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)</h3><table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;"> </td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">MCT</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">Period</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">1Q22</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">Gross Revenue (S$ m)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">124.1 (+23.7% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">NPI (S$ m)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">96.9 (+22.9% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">DPU (S$ c)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">Not Disclosed</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">NAV per Unit (S$)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">1.72 (Based on 2H21 NAV)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">P/B (x)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">1.24 (Based on 2H21 NAV)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">Occupancy (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">Portfolio: 95.4VivoCity: 99.4</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">Reversion (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">Not Disclosed</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">Gearing (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">34.2</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">Cost of Debt (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">2.44</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">4.49</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">Debt Hedged (%)</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">75.7%</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">Target Price</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">N/A</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 141.25pt;">Rating</td><td style="width: 141.2pt;">N/A</td></tr></tbody></table>

SingaporeSREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached) MCTPeriod1Q22Gross Revenue (S$ m)124.1 (+23.7% YoY)NPI (S$ m)96.9 (+22.9% YoY)DPU (S$ c)Not DisclosedNAV per Unit (S$)1.72 (Based on 2H21 NAV)P/B (x)1.24 (Based on 2H21 NAV)Occupancy (%)Portfolio: 95.4VivoCity: 99.4Reversion (%)Not DisclosedGearing (%)34.2Cost of Debt (%)2.441 Yr Fwd Yield (%)4.49Debt Hedged (%)75.7%Target PriceN/ARatingN/A

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (26Jul21) - MCT expects more rebates in 2Q22

Singapore

GuocoLand Limited is a regional property company with operations in Singapore, China, Malaysia and Vietnam. Headquartered in Singapore, the principal business activities of GuocoLand and its subsidiaries (“the Group”) are property development, property investment, hotel operations and property management.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GuocoLand (GUOL SP)

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (28Jan22) - CICT Office Cap Rates Compressed

MAGIC high occupancy a priority; ART RevPAU rebounded strongly; CDREIT underlying operations recovering; FHT QoQ ongoing recovery; MREIT to acquire...

SCCM Asia Research

Singapore Residential Property

Jefferies strategist Chris Wood made an interesting comment in his 4Q21 Asia Maxima report. He expressed a bullish view on Singaporean residential...

Asian Century Stocks

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (04Aug21) - PRIME High Opex Offset Robust Reversions

PRIME high opex offset robust reversions; CERT maiden UK logistics acq; OUE 1H21 earnings reversed from a loss; ALI 1H21 NI +34% YoY on low base,...

SCCM Asia Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (30Jul21) - SGREIT Solid Set of Results

SGREIT solid set of results; CDREIT not out of woods yet; FEHT weak operations continued; OUECT slowing reversions offset by hotel rebound; FIRT...

SCCM Asia Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (26Jul21) - MCT expects more rebates in 2Q22

MCT expects more rebates in 2Q22; Pick suburban malls+industrial SREITs amid Phase 2; GUOL sets GLS record bid; 2Q21 office rents rising, retail...

SCCM Asia Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)