APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.</li>
<li>It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.
It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.


Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share). </li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.4x on our estimated net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2025. </li>
<li>We used a very conservative valuation multiple, mainly due to the extremely high macro risks related to the ongoing tariff dispute between China and the United States.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share). 
Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.4x on our estimated net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2025. 
We used a very conservative valuation multiple, mainly due to the extremely high macro risks related to the ongoing tariff dispute between China and the United States.


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. </li>
<li>Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future</li>
<li>Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. 
Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future
Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.


Mixue Group (2097 HK) - Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>  is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.</li>
<li>It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.


Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chagee-holdings-cha-us-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:181653" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, signs of margin pressure, increasing S&amp;M expenses and weakening forward growth indicators.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
In Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, signs of margin pressure, increasing S&amp;M expenses and weakening forward growth indicators.


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case

China

Gum Holding Ltd is headquartered in China. The Company's line of business includes investing in commodity contracts, tax liens, venture capital companies, and other miscellaneous investing.

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Guming Holdings (1364 HK)

Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

Chagee is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing and how it's valued relative to peers.

Nicholas Tan

Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range...

Douglas Kim

Mixue Group (2097 HK) - Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

We adjusted next 3yr forecast. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

Chagee, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we discuss the company's...

Nicholas Tan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, signs of margin pressure, increasing S&M expenses and weakening forward growth...

Arun George

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