Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bank sector trends to August continue to be robust, but potential challenges lie ahead for returns; tightening credit spreads and a potential worsening of credit quality</li>
<li>Credit spreads are being crimped by fast rising funding costs, and there is emerging evidence of worsening consumer credit quality through consumer cost of risk and delinquency</li>
<li>BBVA Mexico generates the highest ROE versus its peers due to strong revenue returns, Banorte has the lowest NPL ratio and BanBajio has high capital ratios and returns</li>
</ul>


Bank sector trends to August continue to be robust, but potential challenges lie ahead for returns; tightening credit spreads and a potential worsening of credit quality
Credit spreads are being crimped by fast rising funding costs, and there is emerging evidence of worsening consumer credit quality through consumer cost of risk and delinquency
BBVA Mexico generates the highest ROE versus its peers due to strong revenue returns, Banorte has the lowest NPL ratio and BanBajio has high capital ratios and returns


Mexican Banks’ August Data and Trends – as Good as It Gets?

Event-Driven

Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Santander’s USD6bn offer for Banamex was rejected by Citi as too low, according to press reports; the estimated valuation range for Banamex is now from USD7bn to USD8bn</li>
<li>This leaves Inbursa, the Mifel-Grupo Mexico consortium and Banorte as contenders, with Banorte still a leading contender</li>
<li>We continue to be cautious on Banorte, as its potential M&amp;A success would mean big challenges in terms of capital requirements, along with portfolio de-risking and unpopular cost-cutting</li>
</ul>


Santander’s USD6bn offer for Banamex was rejected by Citi as too low, according to press reports; the estimated valuation range for Banamex is now from USD7bn to USD8bn
This leaves Inbursa, the Mifel-Grupo Mexico consortium and Banorte as contenders, with Banorte still a leading contender
We continue to be cautious on Banorte, as its potential M&amp;A success would mean big challenges in terms of capital requirements, along with portfolio de-risking and unpopular cost-cutting


Banamex – Now There Are Three Potential Bidders, Still Including Banorte

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that Banorte is one of the main potential acquirers of Banamex; CitiBanamex’s opex and credit quality metrics worsened to May, making the acquisition more challenging</li>
<li>Banorte’s 2Q22 results include a reduced core capital ratio post dividend payments which, in the event of a Banamex acquisition, increases the risk of an approximately USD1bn capital raise</li>
<li>Furthermore, AMLO’s latest pronouncements on the Banamex sale – which include that there should be no mass lay-offs – threaten to limit the acquiring bank’s scope to extract merger synergies </li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that Banorte is one of the main potential acquirers of Banamex; CitiBanamex’s opex and credit quality metrics worsened to May, making the acquisition more challenging
Banorte’s 2Q22 results include a reduced core capital ratio post dividend payments which, in the event of a Banamex acquisition, increases the risk of an approximately USD1bn capital raise
Furthermore, AMLO’s latest pronouncements on the Banamex sale – which include that there should be no mass lay-offs – threaten to limit the acquiring bank’s scope to extract merger synergies 


Banorte – Shareholders Would Be Better off Without Banamex

<ul>
<li>Banorte and Santander have both hired M&amp;A advisors for a potential Citibanamex bid, according to Reuters; Banco Azteca is not participating in the bidding, whilst Inbursa is potentially still interested</li>
<li>In the event of a bid, we do not expect Santander to be aggressive on price; Banorte could be more aggressive, which would increase its chances of a winning bid</li>
<li>Were Banorte to acquire Citibanamex, we continue to believe that its prospective dividend could be at risk; in essence, the risks of M&amp;A still outweigh the potential opportunities</li>
</ul>


Banorte and Santander have both hired M&amp;A advisors for a potential Citibanamex bid, according to Reuters; Banco Azteca is not participating in the bidding, whilst Inbursa is potentially still interested
In the event of a bid, we do not expect Santander to be aggressive on price; Banorte could be more aggressive, which would increase its chances of a winning bid
Were Banorte to acquire Citibanamex, we continue to believe that its prospective dividend could be at risk; in essence, the risks of M&amp;A still outweigh the potential opportunities


CitiBanamex – Potential Bidders Get Serious, We Stay Cautious on Banorte

<ul>
<li>Citibanamex legacy operations represent a series of challenges for the acquirer, which include its high cost base, bloated branch network and higher credit risk exposure to consumers and SMEs</li>
<li>The opportunity for an acquirer is access to a rich and stable deposit base with a relatively low loan-to-deposit ratio and Banamex’s fee generating AFORE pension administrator</li>
<li>Banamex is attracting much interest, which puts pressure on bidders to pay up, especially Banorte; we revisit our potential capital absorption calculations, but still see risk to Banorte’s dividend prospects</li>
</ul>


Citibanamex legacy operations represent a series of challenges for the acquirer, which include its high cost base, bloated branch network and higher credit risk exposure to consumers and SMEs
The opportunity for an acquirer is access to a rich and stable deposit base with a relatively low loan-to-deposit ratio and Banamex’s fee generating AFORE pension administrator
Banamex is attracting much interest, which puts pressure on bidders to pay up, especially Banorte; we revisit our potential capital absorption calculations, but still see risk to Banorte’s dividend prospects


CitiBanamex Legacy Operations – Revisiting Banorte’s Potential M&A Challenge and Opportunity

Mexico

Grupo Financiero Banorte S.A.B. de C.V. is a financial institution in Mexico. The Company offers banking services, premium banking, wholesale banking, leasing and factoring, warehousing, insurance, pensions and retirement savings.

Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d (GFNORTEO MF)

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Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d (GFNORTEO MF)

Mexican Banks’ August Data and Trends – as Good as It Gets?

Bank sector trends to August continue to be robust, but potential challenges lie ahead; tightening credit spreads and a potential NPL worsening; we...

Victor Galliano

Banamex – Now There Are Three Potential Bidders, Still Including Banorte

Banorte is expected to bid for Banamex and the risks are skewed against its shareholders; Banorte could need to raise capital and could find it...

Victor Galliano

Banorte – Shareholders Would Be Better off Without Banamex

We believe three factors increase the hurdles for a potential Banamex acquirer, especially Banorte; AMLO’s pronouncements, Banorte’s reduced 2Q22...

Victor Galliano

CitiBanamex – Potential Bidders Get Serious, We Stay Cautious on Banorte

Banorte and Santander hire M&A advisors for their Banamex bids, Inbursa is a likely candidate; Banorte remains the favourite, we believe, and so we...

Victor Galliano

CitiBanamex Legacy Operations – Revisiting Banorte’s Potential M&A Challenge and Opportunity

Banorte to buy Banamex? We think it likely, and that competition is pushing up the price for a bank in need of opex cuts and better credit quality;...

Victor Galliano

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Market Cap (USDm)

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