Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Grupo Bimbo’s claim is based on the acquisition of Canada Bread Company from Maple Leaf Foods (MFI CN, not covered).</li>
<li>Bimbo is seeking over CAD$2bn for alleged fraudulent practices, as Canada Bread has been impacted since 2017 due to a price-fixing investigation within the commercial bread industry by the Competition Bureau.</li>
<li>Subsequently, Canada Bread paid a CAD$50mn fine in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Grupo Bimbo’s claim is based on the acquisition of Canada Bread Company from Maple Leaf Foods (MFI CN, not covered).
Bimbo is seeking over CAD$2bn for alleged fraudulent practices, as Canada Bread has been impacted since 2017 due to a price-fixing investigation within the commercial bread industry by the Competition Bureau.
Subsequently, Canada Bread paid a CAD$50mn fine in 2023.


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: Bimbo files statement of claim against Maple Leaf Foods

<ul>
<li>Sales grew 7.4% YoY to P$106.5bn, slightly (0.8%) above our estimates, on the back of better-than-expected sales in EAA and LatAm, as sales in North America and Mexico were in line with our estimates, posting 5-7% YoY sales growth.</li>
<li>Overall sales were supported by positive volume and mix, along with recent acquisitions and FX tailwinds (excluding FX, sales grew 0.8% YoY).</li>
<li>Margins were ahead of our more cautious estimates, supported by strong margin expansion in Mexico and EAA (posting 160bps and 240bps YoY expansion, respectively), while North America posted a margin contraction (140bps YoY) as expected.</li>
</ul>


Sales grew 7.4% YoY to P$106.5bn, slightly (0.8%) above our estimates, on the back of better-than-expected sales in EAA and LatAm, as sales in North America and Mexico were in line with our estimates, posting 5-7% YoY sales growth.
Overall sales were supported by positive volume and mix, along with recent acquisitions and FX tailwinds (excluding FX, sales grew 0.8% YoY).
Margins were ahead of our more cautious estimates, supported by strong margin expansion in Mexico and EAA (posting 160bps and 240bps YoY expansion, respectively), while North America posted a margin contraction (140bps YoY) as expected.


Bimbo 3Q24: North America Prevents Further Margin Expansion

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Having recently launched our Food &amp; Bev coverage (link to report here), we reiterate our Outperform ratings in beverage companies AC (PT down to P$205 from P$210), KOF (P$197 PT), FEMSA (PT up to P$230 from P$222), and Becle (PT down to P$33 from P$36).</li>
<li>We see Coke bottlers as better positioned amid a competitive environment and a picky consumer, while we forecast improving trends in FEMSA and Becle.</li>
<li>We are more cautious on Bimbo (Market Perform) and Gruma (Market Perform), given harsh competition in their main markets and a more limited price/volume growth potential, in our view.</li>
</ul>


Having recently launched our Food &amp; Bev coverage (link to report here), we reiterate our Outperform ratings in beverage companies AC (PT down to P$205 from P$210), KOF (P$197 PT), FEMSA (PT up to P$230 from P$222), and Becle (PT down to P$33 from P$36).
We see Coke bottlers as better positioned amid a competitive environment and a picky consumer, while we forecast improving trends in FEMSA and Becle.
We are more cautious on Bimbo (Market Perform) and Gruma (Market Perform), given harsh competition in their main markets and a more limited price/volume growth potential, in our view.


Actinver Research - Consumer post 3Q24: Sales deceleration while trying to protect margins

<ul>
<li>After years of solid consumption, we expect more normalized trends going forward, as consumers have a higher price sensitivity across the whole food &amp; bev spectrum.</li>
<li>It’s not a price increase race anymore, and shrinkflation has its limits.</li>
<li>Therefore, we expect SKU rationalization and increased focus on cost efficiencies (especially amid higher labor costs), among the different strategies that companies follow to hold (or try to improve) margins amid a deceleration in consumption.</li>
</ul>


After years of solid consumption, we expect more normalized trends going forward, as consumers have a higher price sensitivity across the whole food &amp; bev spectrum.
It’s not a price increase race anymore, and shrinkflation has its limits.
Therefore, we expect SKU rationalization and increased focus on cost efficiencies (especially amid higher labor costs), among the different strategies that companies follow to hold (or try to improve) margins amid a deceleration in consumption.


Actinver Research - Food & Bev: Open the bottles (Coverage Initiation)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

Mexico

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV produces and sells bakery products.  The Company produces breads, cookies, pies, pastries, sweet rolls, tortillas, tostadas, and snacks. The Company also makes appetizers, sweets, chocolates, jams, and other confections.  Grupo Bimbo markets its products throughout the Americas and Europe.

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Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV (BIMBOA MM)

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: Bimbo files statement of claim against Maple Leaf Foods

Bimbo is seeking over CAD$2bn for alleged fraudulent practices, as Canada Bread has been impacted since 2017 due to a price-fixing investigation...

Actinver

Bimbo 3Q24: North America Prevents Further Margin Expansion

Sales grew 7.4% YoY to P$106.5bn, slightly (0.8%) above our estimates, on the back of better-than-expected sales in EAA and LatAm

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer post 3Q24: Sales deceleration while trying to protect margins

Having recently launched our Food & Bev coverage (link to report here), we reiterate our Outperform ratings in beverage companies AC (PT down to...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Food & Bev: Open the bottles (Coverage Initiation)

After years of solid consumption, we expect more normalized trends going forward, as consumers have a higher price sensitivity across the whole...

Actinver

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

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