Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We mapped the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies and compared it against the current Israel-Hamas war. The trends are uncannily similar </li>
<li>Downside pressure lasts for two weeks, followed by a recovery. This suggests good short-term trading opportunities  </li>
<li>Stocks that exhibits deep value are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/us-global-jets-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32756:1" rel="noopener">US Global Jets ETF (JETS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-aeroportuario-cen-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28565:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-aeroport-del-sureste-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27377:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM), and Aeroportua Del Pacifica (GAPB MM)</a>
</li>
</ul>


We mapped the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies and compared it against the current Israel-Hamas war. The trends are uncannily similar 
Downside pressure lasts for two weeks, followed by a recovery. This suggests good short-term trading opportunities  
Stocks that exhibits deep value are US Global Jets ETF (JETS US), Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US), Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM), and Aeroportua Del Pacifica (GAPB MM)



The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mexican Air transport sector posted positive quarterly results.</li><li>The company’s efforts to contain costs and a better tariff environment compared to 3Q23 resulted in margin expansions.</li><li> VOLAR reported the most robust results at the operating level, beating our estimates, with EBITDAR growing double-digit.</li></ul>

Mexican Air transport sector posted positive quarterly results.The company’s efforts to contain costs and a better tariff environment compared to 3Q23 resulted in margin expansions. VOLAR reported the most robust results at the operating level, beating our estimates, with EBITDAR growing double-digit.

Actinver Research - Air Transport post 3Q24: Positive Results. The Margin Expansion Continues

Grupo Aeroportuario Sur-Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Operating Revenues of P$6.8bn were driven by solid aeronautical growth.</li><li>Total operating sales growth of 14% YoY was driven by a solid 19% YoY gain in aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by higher average tariffs (+22% YoY), which offset the 2% drop in total PAX.</li><li>On the other hand, non-aeronautical revenues (34% of the total) gained 5% YoY, supported by an implicit gain of 7% YoY in the non-aeronautical revenue per PAX.</li></ul>

Operating Revenues of P$6.8bn were driven by solid aeronautical growth.Total operating sales growth of 14% YoY was driven by a solid 19% YoY gain in aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by higher average tariffs (+22% YoY), which offset the 2% drop in total PAX.On the other hand, non-aeronautical revenues (34% of the total) gained 5% YoY, supported by an implicit gain of 7% YoY in the non-aeronautical revenue per PAX.

ASR US - Actinver Research - ASUR 3Q24: Positive Results, In line with our estimates (Quick View)

<ul><li>During the last decades, the airport industry has proven to be resilient, having a traffic recovery from previous local or global crises such as September 11, in the EE.UU., SARS, and the financial crisis.</li><li>The COVID-19 pandemic was not the exception, and now the traffic recovery is within its traffic recovery corridor worldwide, reaching the pre-pandemic levels.</li><li> Although we expect 3Q24 quarterly results to be negatively impacted by total traffic contraction, overall total EBITDA will rise 15% YoY, mainly explained by a positive performance on VOLAR, ASUR, and GAP’s results.</li></ul>

During the last decades, the airport industry has proven to be resilient, having a traffic recovery from previous local or global crises such as September 11, in the EE.UU., SARS, and the financial crisis.The COVID-19 pandemic was not the exception, and now the traffic recovery is within its traffic recovery corridor worldwide, reaching the pre-pandemic levels. Although we expect 3Q24 quarterly results to be negatively impacted by total traffic contraction, overall total EBITDA will rise 15% YoY, mainly explained by a positive performance on VOLAR, ASUR, and GAP’s results.

Actinver Research - Air Transport: Attractive Valuations Supported Solid Potential Returns (Sector Initiation)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Mexico

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S.A.B. de C.V. operates airports in Mexico.  The Company holds 50 year concessions, beginning in 1998, to manage airports in Cancun, Cozumel, Merida, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Huatulco, Tapachula, Minatitlan, and Villahermosa.

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Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM)

The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...

Mohshin Aziz

Actinver Research - Air Transport post 3Q24: Positive Results. The Margin Expansion Continues

Mexican Air transport sector posted positive quarterly results. The company’s efforts to contain costs and a better tariff environment compared to...

Actinver

ASR US - Actinver Research - ASUR 3Q24: Positive Results, In line with our estimates (Quick View)

Operating Revenues of P$6.8bn were driven by solid aeronautical growth. Total operating sales growth of 14% YoY was driven by a solid 19% YoY gain...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Air Transport: Attractive Valuations Supported Solid Potential Returns (Sector Initiation)

During the last decades, the airport industry has proven to be resilient, having a traffic recovery from previous local or global crises such as...

Actinver

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

​Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...

Mohshin Aziz

Actinver Research - Air Transport post 3Q24: Positive Results. The Margin Expansion Continues

Mexican Air transport sector posted positive quarterly results. The company’s efforts to contain costs and a better tariff environment compared to...

Actinver

ASR US - Actinver Research - ASUR 3Q24: Positive Results, In line with our estimates (Quick View)

Operating Revenues of P$6.8bn were driven by solid aeronautical growth. Total operating sales growth of 14% YoY was driven by a solid 19% YoY gain...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Air Transport: Attractive Valuations Supported Solid Potential Returns (Sector Initiation)

During the last decades, the airport industry has proven to be resilient, having a traffic recovery from previous local or global crises such as...

Actinver

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...