Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We mapped the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies and compared it against the current Israel-Hamas war. The trends are uncannily similar </li>
<li>Downside pressure lasts for two weeks, followed by a recovery. This suggests good short-term trading opportunities  </li>
<li>Stocks that exhibits deep value are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/us-global-jets-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32756:1" rel="noopener">US Global Jets ETF (JETS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-aeroportuario-cen-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28565:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-aeroport-del-sureste-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27377:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM), and Aeroportua Del Pacifica (GAPB MM)</a>
</li>
</ul>


We mapped the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies and compared it against the current Israel-Hamas war. The trends are uncannily similar 
Downside pressure lasts for two weeks, followed by a recovery. This suggests good short-term trading opportunities  
Stocks that exhibits deep value are US Global Jets ETF (JETS US), Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US), Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM), and Aeroportua Del Pacifica (GAPB MM)



The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Mexico

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S.A.B. de C.V. operates airports in Mexico.  The Company holds 50 year concessions, beginning in 1998, to manage airports in Cancun, Cozumel, Merida, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Huatulco, Tapachula, Minatitlan, and Villahermosa.

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Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM)

The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...

Mohshin Aziz

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

​Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...

Mohshin Aziz

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...