External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

GreenTown Management Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Greentown Mgmt’s stock price plunged 32% post-1H24 earnings, partly due to the uncertainty on strategy execution among investors following the resignation of former CEO Mr. Li Jun.</li><li>More importantly, the pullback was due to revenue/net profit deceleration (8%/6% YoY vs. guidance of 20%/30%), constrained by declining client payment capacity and heightened competition.</li><li>A 19% YoY drop in new contract value reflects 1) reduced land supply, 2) slow sales recovery which dampened clients’ confidence in development, and 3) insufficient funds to start projects. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Greentown Mgmt’s stock price plunged 32% post-1H24 earnings, partly due to the uncertainty on strategy execution among investors following the resignation of former CEO Mr. Li Jun.More importantly, the pullback was due to revenue/net profit deceleration (8%/6% YoY vs. guidance of 20%/30%), constrained by declining client payment capacity and heightened competition.A 19% YoY drop in new contract value reflects 1) reduced land supply, 2) slow sales recovery which dampened clients’ confidence in development, and 3) insufficient funds to start projects. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Greentown Management (9979 HK) - Weakening Demand + Intensifying Competition, What Is Next?

<ul><li>Greentown Management delivered +31% YoY growth in net profit in FY23 and offered a special dividend for the second time that maintained the pay-out ratio at 100%, representing 8% div. yield.</li><li>We think company’s capability of timely business restructuring supported its consistent delivery of strong performance among sluggish property market, which deserves a valuation premium.</li><li>Maintain BUY with TP at HK$ 9.37, reflecting 13x 2024E PE.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Greentown Management delivered +31% YoY growth in net profit in FY23 and offered a special dividend for the second time that maintained the pay-out ratio at 100%, representing 8% div. yield.We think company’s capability of timely business restructuring supported its consistent delivery of strong performance among sluggish property market, which deserves a valuation premium.Maintain BUY with TP at HK$ 9.37, reflecting 13x 2024E PE.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Greentown Management (9979 HK) - FY23 Results In-Line: >30% NP and 100% Pay-Out

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s destocking scheme showed encouraging progress, with Guangzhou announcing to purchase developers’ unsold inventory at cost prices, which could serve as an example for other cities. We think the scheme currently may only benefit SOEs/semi-SOEs as LGFVs may need to divest their financing function at first.</li><li>A number of regions actively implemented mortgage rate related policies after 17 May, and we think there is still room for further adjustment in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.</li><li>Noticeable recovery on property sales was shown with the daily transaction volume post-517 policy for new/second hand home increasing by 23%/21% compared to pre-517 policy. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s destocking scheme showed encouraging progress, with Guangzhou announcing to purchase developers’ unsold inventory at cost prices, which could serve as an example for other cities. We think the scheme currently may only benefit SOEs/semi-SOEs as LGFVs may need to divest their financing function at first.A number of regions actively implemented mortgage rate related policies after 17 May, and we think there is still room for further adjustment in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.Noticeable recovery on property sales was shown with the daily transaction volume post-517 policy for new/second hand home increasing by 23%/21% compared to pre-517 policy. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Encouraging Signs on Both Policy Implementation and Property Sales, Reiterate Buy

<ul><li>Guangzhou's latest policy eases home purchasing restrictions for foreigners, aiming to invigorate the market.</li><li>Post price cap removal, higher-tier cities are experiencing fervent bidding, while lower-tier cities have lagged behind, underscoring the market bidding mechanism’s role in fostering supply-demand equilibrium.</li><li>High-frequency data reveals that new home sales volume has dipped from June’s peak, yet the secondary market holds firm. Daily avg. transactions for new home sales in 30 major cities have seen a 21% decline, vs. an 11% increase for secondary sales in 17 cities. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Guangzhou's latest policy eases home purchasing restrictions for foreigners, aiming to invigorate the market.Post price cap removal, higher-tier cities are experiencing fervent bidding, while lower-tier cities have lagged behind, underscoring the market bidding mechanism’s role in fostering supply-demand equilibrium.High-frequency data reveals that new home sales volume has dipped from June’s peak, yet the secondary market holds firm. Daily avg. transactions for new home sales in 30 major cities have seen a 21% decline, vs. an 11% increase for secondary sales in 17 cities. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Downside Pressure in Jul-Aug

<ul><li>NBS data in 5M24 weakened as market expected.</li><li>The REI decline widened to -10.1% from -9.8% in 4M24 given stagnant land purchases and new starts.</li><li>The GFA completion decline narrowed on a low base but the scale was still the lowest since Jun-22 given less funding support for “home delivery”. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS data in 5M24 weakened as market expected.The REI decline widened to -10.1% from -9.8% in 4M24 given stagnant land purchases and new starts.The GFA completion decline narrowed on a low base but the scale was still the lowest since Jun-22 given less funding support for “home delivery”. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - NBS 5M24: REI continued weakening, sales structure remained skewed to higher-tier cities

China

GTMH is a project management company in China with presence in 84 cities across 25 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. It was the largest project management company in China in terms of accumulated contracted GFA between 2016 to 2018.


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GreenTown Management Holdings (9979 HK)

Greentown Management (9979 HK) - Weakening Demand + Intensifying Competition, What Is Next?

Greentown Mgmt’s stock price plunged 32% post-1H24 earnings, partly due to the uncertainty on strategy execution among investors following the...

CMB International

Greentown Management (9979 HK) - FY23 Results In-Line: >30% NP and 100% Pay-Out

Greentown Management delivered +31% YoY growth in net profit in FY23 and offered a special dividend for the second time that maintained the pay-out...

CMB International

Property - Encouraging Signs on Both Policy Implementation and Property Sales, Reiterate Buy

For stocks, we prefer PM companies like CR MixC, Poly Services, Binjiang Services and Onewo, property agents BEKE, and PJM company Greentown Mgmt.

CMB International

Property - Weekly Highlight: Downside Pressure in Jul-Aug

For stocks, we recommend asset-light companies benefiting from the existing market such as CR MixC, Poly Services, Binjiang Services, Onewo, BEKE...

CMB International

Property - NBS 5M24: REI continued weakening, sales structure remained skewed to higher-tier cities

NBS data in 5M24 weakened as market expected. The REI decline widened to -10.1% from -9.8% in 4M24 given stagnant land purchases and new starts.

CMB International

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