Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we've discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone."</li>
<li>The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.</li>
<li>As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.</li>
</ul>


The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we've discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone."
The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.
As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.


Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Treasury Yields and DXY Climbing; Stay Defensive With $SPX Below 5783

<ul>
<li>The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs</li>
<li>All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.</li>
</ul>


The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs
All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.
Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.


New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends.</li>
<li>In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Manufacturing,  Services, and Utilities: MA-14 Fertilizer, MF-15 Railroad Equipment &amp; Products, SV-13 Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, UT-04 Electric, Mid-Atlantic</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in. 
The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends.
In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Manufacturing,  Services, and Utilities: MA-14 Fertilizer, MF-15 Railroad Equipment &amp; Products, SV-13 Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, UT-04 Electric, Mid-Atlantic


United States

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. supplies transportation equipment and services to the railroad and related industries.  The Company's manufacturing segment produces railcars and marine vessels.  Greenbrier also provides repair and refurbishment for intermodal and conventional railcars.  In addition, the Company provides complementary leasing and services activities.

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Greenbrier Companies (GBX US)

Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Treasury Yields and DXY Climbing; Stay Defensive With $SPX Below 5783

Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Only Confirmed on a Break Below SPX 5670; Treasury Yields, bond volatility (MOVE index), and DXY Climbing, all risk-off...

Vermilion Research

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook $SPX $QQQ $DJI; Risk-On Signals Abound. Three SPX upside gaps in May signals bulls firmly in...

Vermilion Research

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Downgrading Technology to underweight. Attractive and actionable stocks highlighted: Fertilizer, Railroad Equipment & Products, Construction &...

Vermilion Research

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