Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Equity Bottom-Up

We walked away from no-moat-rated Great Wall Motors, or GWM’s, investor conference reassured about the company’s growth outlook in 2017 and beyond. In our view, the company’s “best bang for the bucks” product development philosophy will help sustain its current market share leadership despite the intensifying competition in the SUV segment, and the introduction of WEY luxury class SUVs. In-house production of core components (namely dual-clutch transmission) presents additional bottom line upside.We raise our fair value estimate to HKD 12 per share (from HKD 11) after rolling over our model. Our latest fair value implies 7.9 times forward price/earnings, 5.4 times enterprise value/adjusted EBITDA, and dividend yield of 4%. With 35% of implied upside and solid yield level, we consider the current market price undervalued.Analyst: John Hu

We walked away from no-moat-rated Great Wall Motors, or GWM’s, investor conference reassured about the company’s growth outlook in 2017 and beyond. In our view, the company’s “best bang for the bucks” product development philosophy will help sustain its current market share leadership despite the intensifying competition in the SUV segment, and the introduction of WEY luxury class SUVs. In-house production of core components (namely dual-clutch transmission) presents additional bottom line upside.We raise our fair value estimate to HKD 12 per share (from HKD 11) after rolling over our model. Our latest fair value implies 7.9 times forward price/earnings, 5.4 times enterprise value/adjusted EBITDA, and dividend yield of 4%. With 35% of implied upside and solid yield level, we consider the current market price undervalued.Analyst: John Hu

GWM's 2017 Outlook Remains Robust on Redesigned Haval H6 and WEY; FVE Raised to HKD 12

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

The recent news that Greatwall Motors did a price cut earlier this year compared to last year’s, which they did in June, has caused auto manufacturers’ share price to tumble:<ol>
<li>Geely -10.08%</li>
<li>Greatwall Motor -8.87%</li>
<li>BAIC Motor -2.8%</li>
<li>GAC Group -10.44%</li>
</ol>Customers could join a red packet lucky draw and win a maximum RMB4,999 discount on some car models. The red packet promotion campaign will last from March to May, with estimated amount as high as RMB 1 billion. Some brokers mentioned that it is to counter…

The recent news that Greatwall Motors did a price cut earlier this year compared to last year’s, which they did in June, has caused auto manufacturers’ share price to tumble:
Geely -10.08%
Greatwall Motor -8.87%
BAIC Motor -2.8%
GAC Group -10.44%
Customers could join a red packet lucky draw and win a maximum RMB4,999 discount on some car models. The red packet promotion campaign will last from March to May, with estimated amount as high as RMB 1 billion. Some brokers mentioned that it is to counter…

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Kelusa Asia Focus Funds

Great Wall and the auto sector have been rallying in the face of better numbers they guided the street, we have seen massive short squeezes and the market has dismissed fears of a decline in numbers post the withdrawal of the purchase tax rebate as well as increased discounting in the sector. But yesterday, Great Wall announced  ( this post their aggressive price cuts for 2017 on H6 and H2 in their Q3 2016 results, Read: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/great-wall-3q-2016-official-price-cuts-let-the-bad-times-begin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6682">Great Wall 3Q 2016: Official Price Cuts ? Let the Bad Times Begin</a> ), an…

Great Wall and the auto sector have been rallying in the face of better numbers they guided the street, we have seen massive short squeezes and the market has dismissed fears of a decline in numbers post the withdrawal of the purchase tax rebate as well as increased discounting in the sector. But yesterday, Great Wall announced  ( this post their aggressive price cuts for 2017 on H6 and H2 in their Q3 2016 results, Read: Great Wall 3Q 2016: Official Price Cuts ? Let the Bad Times Begin ), an…

Great Wall Motor: Aggressive Discounting Now After Price Cuts in Q3 2016 with Red Packet Promotion

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This week the Macau government proposed to the Second Standing Committee of Macau Legislative Assembly to allow smoking only in smoking lounges in casinos effective on Jan. 1, 2019, one year later than our existing expectation. Our current forecasts across our narrow moat coverage universe already factor in a negative mid-single-digit percentage point impact to VIP play in 2018, and postponing that one year is not expected to have any significant impact to our fair value estimates. Our current fair value estimates per share are HKD 17 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/472" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1">MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282 HK)</a>, HKD 36 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/182" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1">Sands China Ltd (1928 HK)</a>, HKD 14 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/473" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a>, USD 17 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/810" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1">Melco Crown Entertainment ADR (MPEL US)</a>, HKD 36 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/806" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1">Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited (27 HK)</a>, HKD 6.6 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/805" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:805:1">SJM Holdings Ltd (880 HK)</a>, $133 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/606" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:606:1">Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN US)</a>, $56 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/807" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1">Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS US)</a>, and $29.50 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16227" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16227:1">MGM Resorts International (MGM US)</a>. We continue to see Wynn trading at an attractive margin of safety.The revised bill creates a level playing field for casino operators. We have confirmed with a Macau legislative assembly member that the revised bill outlines that all VIP smoking gaming areas will be closed and that all casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges on both VIP and mass gaming floors. Therefore, under the proposed bill newer casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges in VIP gaming areas, while the older casinos will lose the smoking premium mass and VIP smoking area. As a result, Cotai casinos as a whole stand to gain market share at the expense of Macau peninsula casinos.Analyst: Chelsea Tam

This week the Macau government proposed to the Second Standing Committee of Macau Legislative Assembly to allow smoking only in smoking lounges in casinos effective on Jan. 1, 2019, one year later than our existing expectation. Our current forecasts across our narrow moat coverage universe already factor in a negative mid-single-digit percentage point impact to VIP play in 2018, and postponing that one year is not expected to have any significant impact to our fair value estimates. Our current fair value estimates per share are HKD 17 for MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282 HK), HKD 36 for Sands China Ltd (1928 HK), HKD 14 for Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK), USD 17 for Melco Crown Entertainment ADR (MPEL US), HKD 36 for Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited (27 HK), HKD 6.6 for SJM Holdings Ltd (880 HK), $133 for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN US), $56 for Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS US), and $29.50 for MGM Resorts International (MGM US). We continue to see Wynn trading at an attractive margin of safety.The revised bill creates a level playing field for casino operators. We have confirmed with a Macau legislative assembly member that the revised bill outlines that all VIP smoking gaming areas will be closed and that all casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges on both VIP and mass gaming floors. Therefore, under the proposed bill newer casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges in VIP gaming areas, while the older casinos will lose the smoking premium mass and VIP smoking area. As a result, Cotai casinos as a whole stand to gain market share at the expense of Macau peninsula casinos.Analyst: Chelsea Tam

Expected Macau Smoking Ban Creates a Level Playing Field for Operators

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies., Asia Frontier Capital

Scott Osheroff

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies.

Asia Frontier Capital

Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. is a pioneering fund management company based in Hong Kong that specializes in investing in high growth Asian frontier economies by managing the AFC Asia Frontier Fund , AFC Iraq Fund and the AFC Vietnam Fund.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in public equities of Asian frontier countries that are seeing increasing consumption due to favorable demographic trends, rising incomes and high GDP growth. The fund invests in listed equities of companies that have their principal business activities in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund is positioned to take advantage of the continuing economic shifts in these countries and offers high returns combined with significant diversification opportunities. This fund is directed by the founder and CEO of Asia Frontier Capital, Thomas Hugger, who has been investing in frontier markets across Asia and Africa for more than 20 years.

The AFC Iraq Fund was launched on the 26th June 2015 and aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation for investors by capturing value and growth potential in the post conflict high-growth & resource rich Iraq market. The fund emphasises long term investment horizon to truly capture the opportunity in Iraq. The fund's investable universe consists of locally listed companies that have their principal business activities in Iraq as well as foreign listed companies that have the majority of the business in Iraq as a whole including the prosperous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The AFC Iraq Fund offers access to investments in post conflict recovery potential of Iraq, including the KRI, and/or stability in its territory. The AFC Iraq Fund is managed by Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Limited, Cayman Islands under the executive leadership team of Thomas Hugger (CEO & Fund Manager) and Ahmed Tabaqchali (CIO) who have more than 47 years of investment experience as well as an extensive background covering global, emerging, frontier and MENA markets.

The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of 70-90 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk.  This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 50 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.

For more information about the fund, management team and investment strategy please contact us at info@asiafrontiercapital.com.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, traveled to Laos to visit portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, traveled to Laos to visit portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

Asia Frontier Capital Travel Report: Laos

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

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Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

GWM's 2017 Outlook Remains Robust on Redesigned Haval H6 and WEY; FVE Raised to HKD 12

We walked away from no-moat-rated Great Wall Motors, or GWM’s, investor conference reassured about the company’s growth outlook in 2017 and beyond....

Morningstar, Inc.

SUV Price Cut

The recent news that Greatwall Motors did a price cut earlier this year compared to last year’s, which they did in June, has caused auto...

Henry Soediarko

Great Wall Motor: Aggressive Discounting Now After Price Cuts in Q3 2016 with Red Packet Promotion

Great Wall and the auto sector have been rallying in the face of better numbers they guided the street, we have seen massive short squeezes and the...

Sameer Taneja

Expected Macau Smoking Ban Creates a Level Playing Field for Operators

This week the Macau government proposed to the Second Standing Committee of Macau Legislative Assembly to allow smoking only in smoking lounges in...

Morningstar, Inc.

Asia Frontier Capital Travel Report: Laos

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, traveled to Laos...

Asia Frontier Capital

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