Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.</li>
<li>The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.</li>
<li>With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.
The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.
With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>The sector with the biggest A/H premium increase was Information Technology (ΔA/H premium=8.4ppt) while the sector with the biggest A/H premium decrease was Communication Services (ΔA/H premium=-1.2ppt).</li>
<li>We highlight A/H premium changes of stocks: GWM, CCCC, Cansino, China Oilfield, Air China.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.
The sector with the biggest A/H premium increase was Information Technology (ΔA/H premium=8.4ppt) while the sector with the biggest A/H premium decrease was Communication Services (ΔA/H premium=-1.2ppt).
We highlight A/H premium changes of stocks: GWM, CCCC, Cansino, China Oilfield, Air China.


A/H Premium Weekly: Great Wall Motor, CCCC, Cansino, China Oilfield, Air China

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance should see the slow crawl toward 80 index members continue. We should get up to 68-70 members in March. Reaching 80 by June is unlikely.</li>
<li>High probability inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Currently, index turnover due to capping/float changes is low which will allow more stocks to be added to the index. Increase in the turnover will result in fewer changes.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance should see the slow crawl toward 80 index members continue. We should get up to 68-70 members in March. Reaching 80 by June is unlikely.
High probability inclusions are Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Smoore International (6969 HK), Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), JD Health (6618 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK).
Currently, index turnover due to capping/float changes is low which will allow more stocks to be added to the index. Increase in the turnover will result in fewer changes.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): The Slow Crawl Continues

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>Information technology and health care led the increases of A/H premium while consumer staple led the decreases of A/H premium. </li>
<li>We highlight A/H premium increases for Flat Glass, Cansino, and China Eastern Air. </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.
Information technology and health care led the increases of A/H premium while consumer staple led the decreases of A/H premium. 
We highlight A/H premium increases for Flat Glass, Cansino, and China Eastern Air. 


A/H Premium Weekly: Flat Glass, Cansino, China Eastern Air

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine as of record day of December 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Meituan and Tsingtao, as well as outflows from Wuxi Biologics, Xiaomi, and Great Wall Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine as of record day of December 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Meituan and Tsingtao, as well as outflows from Wuxi Biologics, Xiaomi, and Great Wall Motor.


Hong Kong Connect Flows: Chinese Buying Tsingtao Brewery

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

Price Gauge
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Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

We see the HSCEI 2022 div futures trading in line with our estimates while there could be more downside to the 2022/23 div spread. We'd look to get...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Weekly: Great Wall Motor, CCCC, Cansino, China Oilfield, Air China

We highlight week on week A/H premium at 52w high for Great Wall Motor, CCCC, , and week on week changes of Cansino, China Oilfield, Air China.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): The Slow Crawl Continues

We are at 64 index members currently & are unlikely to reach the target of 80 members by the June rebal. We highlight 10 stocks that could be added...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Weekly: Flat Glass, Cansino, China Eastern Air

We highlight information technology and health care led the increases of A/H premium and three stocks: Flat Glass, Cansino, and China Eastern Air.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Chinese Buying Tsingtao Brewery

We highlight Hong Kong Connect inflows into Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK), and outflows from Wuxi Biologics (2269...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)