Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia are all over the place this week. Despite that, pairwise intracorrelation is.... up? Yup. Average Pairwise Volatility is up even more.</li>
<li>Some of this may be stocks being bullied by large SOUTHBOUND flows in a quieter end-of-year market. </li>
<li>Finance is seeing big net SOUTHBOUND buying but that is not showing up in A/H premia. I expect things stay noisy through year-end.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia are all over the place this week. Despite that, pairwise intracorrelation is.... up? Yup. Average Pairwise Volatility is up even more.
Some of this may be stocks being bullied by large SOUTHBOUND flows in a quieter end-of-year market. 
Finance is seeing big net SOUTHBOUND buying but that is not showing up in A/H premia. I expect things stay noisy through year-end.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 Dec 2024): Pairwise Intracorrelation and Vol Even Higher

<ul>
<li>This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. </li>
<li>We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. </li>
<li>We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. </li>
</ul>


This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. 
We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. 


The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 3Q24 core earnings were in line with our estimates.</li><li>We expect its overseas sales growth to continue in FY25E to support its earnings.</li><li>Seven new models in FY25E could also provide a positive surprise for China market sales.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 3Q24 core earnings were in line with our estimates.We expect its overseas sales growth to continue in FY25E to support its earnings.Seven new models in FY25E could also provide a positive surprise for China market sales.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) - Overseas, New Models to Support FY25 After In-Line 3Q24 Core Earnings

<ul>
<li>A big "week" of 5 trading days from 30 Sep to 14 Oct, inclusive. Average AH premia dropped a lot. Liquid AH premia dropped less. Brokers are big winners.</li>
<li>Average AH volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.</li>
<li>Sharply differing onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.</li>
</ul>


A big "week" of 5 trading days from 30 Sep to 14 Oct, inclusive. Average AH premia dropped a lot. Liquid AH premia dropped less. Brokers are big winners.
Average AH volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
Sharply differing onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.</li><li>The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 Dec 2024): Pairwise Intracorrelation and Vol Even Higher

AH Premia are noisy as the year winds down. Premia rose slightly this week, especially for the narrowest group. Some of this looks like profit...

Travis Lundy

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) - Overseas, New Models to Support FY25 After In-Line 3Q24 Core Earnings

Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 3Q24 core earnings were in line with our estimates. We expect its overseas sales growth to continue in FY25E to support...

CMB International

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

High AH premia contracted much more than narrow premia. Narrow premia actually widened on average. Brokers ballistic and there may be a bit more to...

Travis Lundy

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 Dec 2024): Pairwise Intracorrelation and Vol Even Higher

AH Premia are noisy as the year winds down. Premia rose slightly this week, especially for the narrowest group. Some of this looks like profit...

Travis Lundy

The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

Quiddity's New & Improved And Really Quite Spiffy H/A Discount Monitor. All the H/A Pairs, universe & sector metrics, with interactive tables and...

Travis Lundy

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) - Overseas, New Models to Support FY25 After In-Line 3Q24 Core Earnings

Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 3Q24 core earnings were in line with our estimates. We expect its overseas sales growth to continue in FY25E to support...

CMB International

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

High AH premia contracted much more than narrow premia. Narrow premia actually widened on average. Brokers ballistic and there may be a bit more to...

Travis Lundy

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International