Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>In our weekly HK Connect Flow series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the southbound Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine.</p><p>Since the opening of Hong Kong Connect scheme in 2014, southbound Chinese money started to play an increasingly important role in the Hong Kong stock market. In a Hong Kong exchange report released in July 2019, the exchange highlighted that flows from mainland China accounted for 12% of the total trading volume in the market and is ahead of the US investors' 10% and UK investors' 7% share respectively. </p><p>We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: HSCEI component stocks, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.</p><p>In this insight, we will highlight inflows into Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (981 HK), Cosco Shipping Holdings Co., Ltd. (1919 HK), Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. (2269 HK), Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (175 HK), as well as outflows from Tencent Holdings Limited (700 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK).</p>

In our weekly HK Connect Flow series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the southbound Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine.Since the opening of Hong Kong Connect scheme in 2014, southbound Chinese money started to play an increasingly important role in the Hong Kong stock market. In a Hong Kong exchange report released in July 2019, the exchange highlighted that flows from mainland China accounted for 12% of the total trading volume in the market and is ahead of the US investors' 10% and UK investors' 7% share respectively. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: HSCEI component stocks, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight inflows into Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (981 HK), Cosco Shipping Holdings Co., Ltd. (1919 HK), Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. (2269 HK), Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (175 HK), as well as outflows from Tencent Holdings Limited (700 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK).

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Inflows into SMIC & Autos

<p>Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Jul 23. The aggregate short value for equities decreased by $-4,146m (-5.7%) WoW and decreased by $5,411m (-7.3%) over the preceding four weeks.</p><p>Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($5,076m, -2.4% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($2,170m, -5.1% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($2,035m, -3.0% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,766m, -10.7% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,660m, -10.0% WoW).</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/221/376/original/Hong_Kong_Market_Short_Position_Value_%28line%29_and_1W_Changes_%28bar%29_%28%24m%292021-08-01+10_25_50.png?1627785187" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="221376"></figure></section>

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Jul 23. The aggregate short value for equities decreased by $-4,146m (-5.7%) WoW and decreased by $5,411m (-7.3%) over the preceding four weeks.Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($5,076m, -2.4% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($2,170m, -5.1% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($2,035m, -3.0% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,766m, -10.7% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,660m, -10.0% WoW).

HK Short Interest: New Oriental Short Spiked Prior to Tightening Policy

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>. Shorts decreased in the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Real Estate, Materials, Indsutrials and Financials sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp (6753 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pigeon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1" rel="noopener">Pigeon Corp (7956 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Health Care, Financials, Materials and Communication Services sectors while decreasing in the Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oci-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1904:1" rel="noopener">Oci Co Ltd (010060 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quanta-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2754:1" rel="noopener">Quanta Computer (2382 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fitipower-integrated-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8712:1" rel="noopener">Fitipower Integrated Technology (4961 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15350:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement (1102 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elite-semiconductor-memory-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9373:1" rel="noopener">Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (3006 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ta-chen-stainless-pipe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2519:1" rel="noopener">TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) and Great Wall Motor (2333 HK). Shorts decreased in the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Real Estate, Materials, Indsutrials and Financials sectors.In Japan, stocks increased on Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP), Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP), Kirin Holdings (2503 JP), KDDI Corp (9433 JP) and Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) while there was short covering on Sharp Corp (6753 JP), Pigeon Corp (7956 JP), Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP), Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) and Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP). Shorts increased in the Health Care, Financials, Materials and Communication Services sectors while decreasing in the Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors.In Korea, shorts increased on LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS), Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS) and SK Telecom (017670 KS) while shorts were covered on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), LG Electronics (066570 KS), Oci Co Ltd (010060 KS), Naver Corp (035420 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS). In Taiwan, shorts increased on Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), Asustek Computer (2357 TT), Quanta Computer (2382 TT) and Fitipower Integrated Technology (4961 TT) while shorts covered on Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Asia Cement (1102 TT), Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (3006 TT), Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) and TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT).

Asia Shorts: Kuaishou, EDU, Fuyao, Galaxy, KDDI, Sharp, HMC, HMM, SK Tel, Naver, Novatek, Yageo

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>It's unprecedented for an OEM which focuses on SUVs, to achieve annual sales of 1mn in the past. In April, GWM (Great Wall Motor) unveiled new exciting plans for its 5 brands to drive sales upside. However, after a deep dive analysis, we conclude that upside potential may not match current high valuation the market gives to the stock. </strong></p><p><strong>Where could GWM gain additional sales from current about100,000 cars of monthly sales volume? Our best guess is: 10,000 cars from ORA new models; 5,000 cars from pick-ups; 5,000-10,000cars from Haval. This indicates 30% increase on sales volume in the next three years. With ASP trends up and margin improvement, earnings increase over the next three years might reach 50-60%.</strong></p><p><strong>Based on Bloomberg consensus, GWM trades at 25x P/E on 2021E, vs. 6-years historical average of 10x P/E and its peers average of 8x (excluding BYD). In our view, valuation re-rating to traditional OEMs are based on brand upgrading and/or breaking into smart EV market. However, whether GWM's brand upgrading (WEY) or smart EV positioning would be successful or not is highly uncertain.</strong></p>

It's unprecedented for an OEM which focuses on SUVs, to achieve annual sales of 1mn in the past. In April, GWM (Great Wall Motor) unveiled new exciting plans for its 5 brands to drive sales upside. However, after a deep dive analysis, we conclude that upside potential may not match current high valuation the market gives to the stock. Where could GWM gain additional sales from current about100,000 cars of monthly sales volume? Our best guess is: 10,000 cars from ORA new models; 5,000 cars from pick-ups; 5,000-10,000cars from Haval. This indicates 30% increase on sales volume in the next three years. With ASP trends up and margin improvement, earnings increase over the next three years might reach 50-60%.Based on Bloomberg consensus, GWM trades at 25x P/E on 2021E, vs. 6-years historical average of 10x P/E and its peers average of 8x (excluding BYD). In our view, valuation re-rating to traditional OEMs are based on brand upgrading and/or breaking into smart EV market. However, whether GWM's brand upgrading (WEY) or smart EV positioning would be successful or not is highly uncertain.

Great Wall Motor: Too Early to Get Excited

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p>Nexteer's share price was plagued by the auto chip shortage that causes its share price to fall from HKD 14to 7, a fall of 50% in the span of 3 months, presenting an excellent opportunity to add or initiate a position in the portfolio due to 1) the ending of the chip shortage is near thus auto-related stocks will benefit from the positive sentiment thus multiples will be higher and 2) the management has confirmed that 2H 2021 will have much bigger revenue <strong>(around 9x)</strong> although the reality could be different, nevertheless, it presents growth potential for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexteer-automotive-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15483:1" rel="noopener">Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK)</a> .</p>

Nexteer's share price was plagued by the auto chip shortage that causes its share price to fall from HKD 14to 7, a fall of 50% in the span of 3 months, presenting an excellent opportunity to add or initiate a position in the portfolio due to 1) the ending of the chip shortage is near thus auto-related stocks will benefit from the positive sentiment thus multiples will be higher and 2) the management has confirmed that 2H 2021 will have much bigger revenue (around 9x) although the reality could be different, nevertheless, it presents growth potential for Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK) .

Nexteer (1316): Positive Sentiment and Exciting 2H 2021

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

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Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Inflows into SMIC & Autos

We will highlight weekly top inflows into SMIC (981 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (175...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest: New Oriental Short Spiked Prior to Tightening Policy

We highlight the latest aggregate short interest report revealed that the short interests on New Oriental spiked significantly prior to the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Shorts: Kuaishou, EDU, Fuyao, Galaxy, KDDI, Sharp, HMC, HMM, SK Tel, Naver, Novatek, Yageo

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Great Wall Motor: Too Early to Get Excited

It's unprecedented for an OEM which focuses on SUVs, to achieve annual sales of 1mn in the past. In April, GWM (Great Wall Motor) unveiled new...

Victoria Li

Nexteer (1316): Positive Sentiment and Exciting 2H 2021

Nexteer's share price was plagued by the auto chip shortage as its share price fell 50% in the span of 3 months, presenting an excellent...

Henry Soediarko

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