Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Miserable economic data, minimal other data. It was a VERY quiet week in terms of gross volumes as per the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-connect-southbound-flows-to-16-aug-2024-big-net-buying-on-tiny-overall-volume-etfs-big" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainland-connect-northbound-flows-to-16-aug-2024-banks-bought-industry-materials-sold" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NORTHBOUND</a> monitors.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND net buyer for 28th week in a row. ETFs and Tencent strong (14 of 15 days net bought). NORTHBOUND outflows small. Record foreign capital flight extends.</li>
<li>As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 2wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.</li>
</ul>


Miserable economic data, minimal other data. It was a VERY quiet week in terms of gross volumes as per the SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND monitors.
SOUTHBOUND net buyer for 28th week in a row. ETFs and Tencent strong (14 of 15 days net bought). NORTHBOUND outflows small. Record foreign capital flight extends.
As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 2wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes WAAAAAY Down; AH Premia Down Small

<ul>
<li><em>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</em></li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND inflow continues, albeit smaller. SOE Banks/Energy/Telecoms remain a big net buy. Percentage of volume is large. NORTHBOUND saw finance buying. Possible short-covering ahead of new short-selling restrictions/access.</li>
<li>AH Premia were up small on average, down small on the liquid pairs. But HSI/HSCEI vs CSI300/500 performance spreads were higher. Third Plenum this week may drive "sentiment."</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND inflow continues, albeit smaller. SOE Banks/Energy/Telecoms remain a big net buy. Percentage of volume is large. NORTHBOUND saw finance buying. Possible short-covering ahead of new short-selling restrictions/access.
AH Premia were up small on average, down small on the liquid pairs. But HSI/HSCEI vs CSI300/500 performance spreads were higher. Third Plenum this week may drive "sentiment."


A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jul 2024): Roughly Flat Week Ahead of 3rd Plenum, Possible A Short-Covers

<ul>
<li>The <em>Somewhat</em>-Brand-Spanking New (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.</li>
<li>The last 10wks (since the start of the new Tracker and Portfolio 11 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%, -68%.</li>
</ul>


The Somewhat-Brand-Spanking New (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.
The last 10wks (since the start of the new Tracker and Portfolio 11 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%, -68%.


Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND's buy streak continued this past week; every day was net positive. NORTHBOUND was net positive too. It is not clear how much is National Team buying. Much may be.</li>
<li>AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng and other HK indices fell sharply and A-shares did not fall as much. </li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND's buy streak continued this past week; every day was net positive. NORTHBOUND was net positive too. It is not clear how much is National Team buying. Much may be.
AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng and other HK indices fell sharply and A-shares did not fall as much. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024):  HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND's consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. NORTHBOUND has been selling recently (this week and last buying semi tech, selling renewables)</li>
<li>Hs fell sharply vs As. AH Premia very wide. Alpha on portfolio vs straight H vs A but a bad week as liquid Hs underperformed liquid As by 2.5+%.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND's consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. NORTHBOUND has been selling recently (this week and last buying semi tech, selling renewables)
Hs fell sharply vs As. AH Premia very wide. Alpha on portfolio vs straight H vs A but a bad week as liquid Hs underperformed liquid As by 2.5+%.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Apr 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Even Higher; Lots Of "Carry" In The Market

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

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Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes WAAAAAY Down; AH Premia Down Small

SB and NB flows were minimal. But SB continued to buy, NB continued to sell. AH Premia narrowed by about 50bp. Narrow premia narrowing more than...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Jul 2024): Roughly Flat Week Ahead of 3rd Plenum, Possible A Short-Covers

AH Premia among dual-listed H/A-share pairs were slightly up on average, slightly down for liquid pairs. Some results may have been driven by short...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²

The Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker. Tables, Charts, Flows, Positions (both SB and NB). This week was AGAIN messy. Pairwise volatility is up. universe...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024): HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In

HK stocks fell sharply as A-shares did not fall as much. AH Premia bounced off multi-year lows (as an average) with banks/financials bearing the...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Apr 2024): Liquid AH Premia Even Higher; Lots Of "Carry" In The Market

Significant weakness in H vs A suggests arb/relval unwinding as As are up on the week, HK indices down, and H discounts to A widen sharply.

Travis Lundy

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