External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 3Q24 core earnings were in line with our estimates.</li><li>We expect its overseas sales growth to continue in FY25E to support its earnings.</li><li>Seven new models in FY25E could also provide a positive surprise for China market sales.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 3Q24 core earnings were in line with our estimates.We expect its overseas sales growth to continue in FY25E to support its earnings.Seven new models in FY25E could also provide a positive surprise for China market sales.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) - Overseas, New Models to Support FY25 After In-Line 3Q24 Core Earnings

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A big "week" of 5 trading days from 30 Sep to 14 Oct, inclusive. Average AH premia dropped a lot. Liquid AH premia dropped less. Brokers are big winners.</li>
<li>Average AH volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.</li>
<li>Sharply differing onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.</li>
</ul>


A big "week" of 5 trading days from 30 Sep to 14 Oct, inclusive. Average AH premia dropped a lot. Liquid AH premia dropped less. Brokers are big winners.
Average AH volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
Sharply differing onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

<ul>
<li>Repeat of last week: Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. But SOUTHBOUND gross volumes way up.</li>
<li>AH Premia rose slightly as HK-listed shares outperformed mainland share indices. The HK/mainland spread is consistently better than H/A performance. It's not clear why. This week no exception.</li>
<li>This week will see limited H/A action because of the long Mid-Autumn Festival. Hopes are high for non-durables purchases this month. Maybe even homes. But I am skeptical...</li>
</ul>


Repeat of last week: Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. But SOUTHBOUND gross volumes way up.
AH Premia rose slightly as HK-listed shares outperformed mainland share indices. The HK/mainland spread is consistently better than H/A performance. It's not clear why. This week no exception.
This week will see limited H/A action because of the long Mid-Autumn Festival. Hopes are high for non-durables purchases this month. Maybe even homes. But I am skeptical...


A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 Sep 2024): SB Buying of H Underperformance

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>ETF flows showed subdued activity during the week although the Southbound Connect platform had a minor outflow.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> both had positive news sentiment helping their share prices rally on better earnings announcements.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> announced a major asset impairment write-down sending its stock to historic lows.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)</a> disappointed on 2Q24 sales and profits.
</li>
</ul>


ETF flows showed subdued activity during the week although the Southbound Connect platform had a minor outflow.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and China Feihe (6186 HK) both had positive news sentiment helping their share prices rally on better earnings announcements.


New World Development (17 HK) announced a major asset impairment write-down sending its stock to historic lows.  China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) disappointed on 2Q24 sales and profits.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. We believe strong 1H24 earnings could extend into 2H24 and FY25, as the Tank brand’s competitive edge and Great Wall’s overseas sales growth could last at least for another year, especially as Great Wall is to start local production in Brazil.</li><li>On the other hand, we believe it needs a new “H6” in the NEV era no later than 2025, by leveraging its current strong earnings.</li><li>Strong 2Q24 earnings aided by overseas and Tank. Great Wall’s 1H24 net profit of RMB7.1bn was in line with its preliminary announcement in Jul (within RMB6.5-7.3bn).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. We believe strong 1H24 earnings could extend into 2H24 and FY25, as the Tank brand’s competitive edge and Great Wall’s overseas sales growth could last at least for another year, especially as Great Wall is to start local production in Brazil.On the other hand, we believe it needs a new “H6” in the NEV era no later than 2025, by leveraging its current strong earnings.Strong 2Q24 earnings aided by overseas and Tank. Great Wall’s 1H24 net profit of RMB7.1bn was in line with its preliminary announcement in Jul (within RMB6.5-7.3bn).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) - Strong Earnings to Continue with a New H6 Needed

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

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Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) - Overseas, New Models to Support FY25 After In-Line 3Q24 Core Earnings

Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 3Q24 core earnings were in line with our estimates. We expect its overseas sales growth to continue in FY25E to support...

CMB International

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

High AH premia contracted much more than narrow premia. Narrow premia actually widened on average. Brokers ballistic and there may be a bit more to...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 Sep 2024): SB Buying of H Underperformance

H/A saw outperformance of Hs vs As, but it was small, and weirdly, MUCH smaller than the HK/China major indices spreads. This week will be slow...

Travis Lundy

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 7)

China Feihe beat estmates for 2Q with higher profits and GW Motor substantially increased international sales of EV's. NWD will take a large asset...

David Mudd

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) - Strong Earnings to Continue with a New H6 Needed

We believe strong 1H24 earnings could extend into 2H24 and FY25, as the Tank brand’s competitive edge and Great Wall’s overseas sales growth could...

CMB International

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