Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The global market sentiments are in agony lately due to the vicious Covid-19 which is yet to loom in many geographies. Moreover, the fact that the Indian indices are burning coupled with lack of a stern banking system simply aids in the macroeconomic woes of the country. Through this insight, we try to figure out reasons some of the Indian heavyweight entities that could be exposed naked to the risk of bankruptcy in the wake of upcoming recession which has more chances of 'mights' than 'might nots'.

The global market sentiments are in agony lately due to the vicious Covid-19 which is yet to loom in many geographies. Moreover, the fact that the Indian indices are burning coupled with lack of a stern banking system simply aids in the macroeconomic woes of the country. Through this insight, we try to figure out reasons some of the Indian heavyweight entities that could be exposed naked to the risk of bankruptcy in the wake of upcoming recession which has more chances of 'mights' than 'might nots'.

High Distress Levels: Indian Companies Caught Off-Guard

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

We wonder if the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16381:1">Jet Airways India (JETIN IN)</a> flight cancellations are some of the most visible signs of liquidity freezing up? There are plenty of companies in India with much more debt, and where the ability to service loans is far worse. The bad loan cycle is well in place. The risk is that this worsens due to lack of liquidity.  The largest 50 debtors in India account for 63% of debt in our corporate sample set. Some 17 of these companies have interest coverage at low levels, averaging 0.7x as at FY18. Where liquidity was their lifeline, for those holding on, the risk is of default rises.

We wonder if the Jet Airways India (JETIN IN) flight cancellations are some of the most visible signs of liquidity freezing up? There are plenty of companies in India with much more debt, and where the ability to service loans is far worse. The bad loan cycle is well in place. The risk is that this worsens due to lack of liquidity.  The largest 50 debtors in India account for 63% of debt in our corporate sample set. Some 17 of these companies have interest coverage at low levels, averaging 0.7x as at FY18. Where liquidity was their lifeline, for those holding on, the risk is of default rises.

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Ruling party BJP has won a landslide victory in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) thereby putting to rest any doubts over the adverse impact of demonetisation on the electoral prospects of the party. Performance in UP is impressive as the opposition had formed an alliance to fight Modi but still lost poorly.  Most political analysts have been caught on the wrong foot as they predicted a hung assembly while the results show that Modi wave seen during the General elections continues. We…

Ruling party BJP has won a landslide victory in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) thereby putting to rest any doubts over the adverse impact of demonetisation on the electoral prospects of the party. Performance in UP is impressive as the opposition had formed an alliance to fight Modi but still lost poorly.  Most political analysts have been caught on the wrong foot as they predicted a hung assembly while the results show that Modi wave seen during the General elections continues. We…

Landslide Win for Modi in UP Elections;Upper House No.s to Cross 100 Mark by 2018, a +ve for Reforms

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

As per the Financial Times ("FT") <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4f88cb60-f8f7-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71" target="_blank">article</a> dated 24th Feb 2017, electric vehicle ("EVs") manufacturers and battery producers have been scrambling to secure supplies of Cobalt. This has been driven by the fact the a handful of hedge funds have purchased and stored Cobalt on expectations that the demand for EVs will pick up. Battery producers such as Panasonic, who supply Lithium Ion ("Li-ion") batteries to the likes of Tesla are hard pressed for supplies. As FT reported, prices have risen by more…

As per the Financial Times ("FT") article dated 24th Feb 2017, electric vehicle ("EVs") manufacturers and battery producers have been scrambling to secure supplies of Cobalt.   This has been driven by the fact the a handful of hedge funds have purchased and stored Cobalt on expectations that the demand for EVs will pick up. Battery producers such as Panasonic, who supply Lithium Ion ("Li-ion") batteries to the likes of Tesla are hard pressed for supplies.  As FT reported, prices have risen by more…

India

Grasim Industries Limited is a diversified operating company and part of the Aditya Birla group. The group manufactures a wide range of products, including Viscose Staple Fiber(VSF), cement, chemicals and textiles.

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Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN)

High Distress Levels: Indian Companies Caught Off-Guard

The global market sentiments are in agony lately due to the vicious Covid-19 which is yet to loom in many geographies. Moreover, the fact that the...

Nitin Mangal

India – Liquidity Freeze

We wonder if the Jet Airways India (JETIN IN) flight cancellations are some of the most visible signs of liquidity freezing up? There are plenty of...

Daniel Tabbush

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

Landslide Win for Modi in UP Elections;Upper House No.s to Cross 100 Mark by 2018, a +ve for Reforms

Ruling party BJP has won a landslide victory in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) thereby putting to rest any doubts over the adverse impact...

Asia Advisors

Future of Cobalt Vis-A-Vis EVs

As per the Financial Times ("FT") article dated 24th Feb 2017, electric vehicle ("EVs") manufacturers and battery producers have been scrambling to...

Ishita Jain

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