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Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5242" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5242">Grameenphone Ltd</a> has reported 4Q15 numbers that show a recovery in service revenues helped by strong growth in data. Ebitda was also ahead of expectations on efficiency savings.Prospects are helped by the in market consolidation underway with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/944" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944">Axiata Group Berhad</a> (Axiata) subsidiary Robi merging with smaller no4 player Bharti (a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/953" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953">Bharti Airtel Ltd</a> ). We expect competition to ease post this deal and the focus to shift to investment and service quality, something required to support the growth of data. We like the Bangladesh market and Grameenphone. This is a market where there is still room for substantial subscriber growth and where data accounts for just 9% of Grameenphone revenue. Voice demand remains strong although pricing is weak.

Grameenphone Ltd has reported 4Q15 numbers that show a recovery in service revenues helped by strong growth in data. Ebitda was also ahead of expectations on efficiency savings.Prospects are helped by the in market consolidation underway with Axiata Group Berhad (Axiata) subsidiary Robi merging with smaller no4 player Bharti (a subsidiary of Bharti Airtel Ltd ). We expect competition to ease post this deal and the focus to shift to investment and service quality, something required to support the growth of data. We like the Bangladesh market and Grameenphone. This is a market where there is still room for substantial subscriber growth and where data accounts for just 9% of Grameenphone revenue. Voice demand remains strong although pricing is weak. 

Grameenphone: 4Q15 Recovery to Continue in 2016 Helped by in Market Consolidation in Bangladesh.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The rise of data usage in Emerging Markets delivers increased benefits of scale to operators. Capex and spectrum holdings become key weapons to gain market share. This tends to play well for large incumbents; large dominant telcos are increasing their dominance. With increased share of profits flowing to a dominant player, returns for the smaller players can fall to unsustainable levels. &nbsp;A number of outcomes are possible.<ol><li>If the government does not own a large stake in the dominant player then asymmetric regulation is likely to benefit the smaller players.&nbsp;</li><li>Where the government owns a stake in the dominant player, asymmetric regulation is less likely and instead a deeper consolidation of smaller players may be allowed.&nbsp;</li><li>In markets where existing players generate high returns we see a risk of new entry to erode returns. Small cell challengers are likely to be part of this picture.&nbsp;</li></ol>&nbsp;

The rise of data usage in Emerging Markets delivers increased benefits of scale to operators. Capex and spectrum holdings become key weapons to gain market share. This tends to play well for large incumbents; large dominant telcos are increasing their dominance. With increased share of profits flowing to a dominant player, returns for the smaller players can fall to unsustainable levels. &nbsp;A number of outcomes are possible.If the government does not own a large stake in the dominant player then asymmetric regulation is likely to benefit the smaller players.&nbsp;Where the government owns a stake in the dominant player, asymmetric regulation is less likely and instead a deeper consolidation of smaller players may be allowed.&nbsp;In markets where existing players generate high returns we see a risk of new entry to erode returns. Small cell challengers are likely to be part of this picture.&nbsp;&nbsp;

The Urge to Merge - EM Telcos Look at Consolidation

Bangladesh

Grameenphone Ltd. offers cellular telephone services to both rural and urban customers in Bangladesh.  The Company also provides Internet access via mobile telephones.

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Grameenphone Ltd (GRAM BD)

Grameenphone: 4Q15 Recovery to Continue in 2016 Helped by in Market Consolidation in Bangladesh.

Grameenphone Ltd has reported 4Q15 numbers that show a recovery in service revenues helped by strong growth in data. Ebitda was also ahead of...

New Street Research

The Urge to Merge - EM Telcos Look at Consolidation

The rise of data usage in Emerging Markets delivers increased benefits of scale to operators. Capex and spectrum holdings become key weapons to...

New Street Research

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