Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Equity Bottom-Up

Aluminum Corporation Of China / Equity Bottom-Up

PRICE FORECAST CHANGES - RAISING COAL; CUTTING GOLD:We raise our annual average <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22876" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22876:1">Coal (COAL COMDTY)</a> price forecasts by 10% after strong price gains of 12% in May.  China's anti-pollution campaigns have curbed coal production and resulted in regional shortages. However, looking beyond these recent bottlenecks we remain bearish on the outlook for growth in China's coal consumption and pricing due to Beijing's long-stated aim at reducing air pollution.Additionally, we cut our annual average <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold</a>…

PRICE FORECAST CHANGES - RAISING COAL; CUTTING GOLD:We raise our annual average Coal (COAL COMDTY) price forecasts by 10% after strong price gains of 12% in May.  China's anti-pollution campaigns have curbed coal production and resulted in regional shortages. However, looking beyond these recent bottlenecks we remain bearish on the outlook for growth in China's coal consumption and pricing due to Beijing's long-stated aim at reducing air pollution.Additionally, we cut our annual average Gold…

Energy Drives Commodity Price Gains in May

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW We would sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a> and expect further downside of about $5/share (or US$50/oz of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a>) in the weeks ahead.    RISING REAL YIELDS  The rise in nominal US bond yields since last September has been roughly shared between rising inflation expectations and higher real yields.  However, in the past few weeks rising real yields have moved ahead, and this has increased the opportunity cost of holding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> as an inflation hedge.  As a result…

INVESTMENT VIEW We would sell SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) and expect further downside of about $5/share (or US$50/oz of Gold (GOLD COMDTY)) in the weeks ahead.    RISING REAL YIELDS  The rise in nominal US bond yields since last September has been roughly shared between rising inflation expectations and higher real yields.  However, in the past few weeks rising real yields have moved ahead, and this has increased the opportunity cost of holding Gold (GOLD COMDTY) as an inflation hedge.  As a result…

Gold Price Challenged by Rising Real Yields

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

New Pricing Forecasts:We included this month our new commodity price forecast table, which ranks key commodities based on their price potential to our 2020 forecasts.  In summary, we are relatively more positive on the commodities which have lagged during the past year including Agriculture &amp; Precious Metals, but relatively more cautious on the Energy and Metals &amp; Minerals. Our current stock recommendations include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/select-harvests-ltd-pricing-growth-adding-to-our-list-of-five-year-doubles" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18339">Select Harvests Ltd: Pricing + Growth; Adding to Our List of Five Year Doubles</a> an…

New Pricing Forecasts:We included this month our new commodity price forecast table, which ranks key commodities based on their price potential to our 2020 forecasts.  In summary, we are relatively more positive on the commodities which have lagged during the past year including Agriculture &amp; Precious Metals, but relatively more cautious on the Energy and Metals &amp; Minerals. Our current stock recommendations include Select Harvests Ltd: Pricing + Growth; Adding to Our List of Five Year Doubles an…

Commodity Prices Bounce in April Led Again by Energy & Metals

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

Since the 1970’s, whenever the Ratio has exceeded 80 and then dropped below again, Silver has been the way to play the two on all but a very short-term view.  Only in 1991-1993 did you have to show any real patience with Silver, but since then it has produced some very profitable moves.  Our attention was drawn to this by looking at Silver in Sterling terms, mainly because it is giving bullish indicator signals (not shown), partially reflecting Sterling’s strength.  However,  you will also see…

Since the 1970’s, whenever the Ratio has exceeded 80 and then dropped below again, Silver has been the way to play the two on all but a very short-term view.  Only in 1991-1993 did you have to show any real patience with Silver, but since then it has produced some very profitable moves.  Our attention was drawn to this by looking at Silver in Sterling terms, mainly because it is giving bullish indicator signals (not shown), partially reflecting Sterling’s strength.  However,  you will also see…

If you are a longer-term Gold bull (I am), note that this is more of a shorter-term "mind your eye" warning, particularly if any apparent upward break to around 1,390 lacks momentum.Gold’s rally in 2016 broke upwards out of the Diagonal Triangle C-wave, signalling that its bear market was complete. It hit its initial target range of 1,345-1,434 in Q3 2016. The 21-week momentum indicator produced its best reading since the 2011 high on that rally, confirming the trend change, but has subsequently…

If you are a longer-term Gold bull (I am), note that this is more of a shorter-term "mind your eye" warning, particularly if any apparent upward break to around 1,390 lacks momentum.Gold’s rally in 2016 broke upwards out of the Diagonal Triangle C-wave, signalling that its bear market was complete. It hit its initial target range of 1,345-1,434 in Q3 2016. The 21-week momentum indicator produced its best reading since the 2011 high on that rally, confirming the trend change, but has subsequently…

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Energy Drives Commodity Price Gains in May

PRICE FORECAST CHANGES - RAISING COAL; CUTTING GOLD:We raise our annual average Coal (COAL COMDTY) price forecasts by 10% after strong price gains...

Charles Spencer

Gold Price Challenged by Rising Real Yields

INVESTMENT VIEWWe would sell SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) and expect further downside of about $5/share (or US$50/oz of Gold (GOLD COMDTY)) in the...

Charles Spencer

Commodity Prices Bounce in April Led Again by Energy & Metals

New Pricing Forecasts:We included this month our new commodity price forecast table, which ranks key commodities based on their price potential to...

Charles Spencer

Silver: Ready to Outshine Gold

Since the 1970’s, whenever the Ratio has exceeded 80 and then dropped below again, Silver has been the way to play the two on all but a very...

Peter Beuttell

Gold: A Short-Term "Alert" For the Bulls

If you are a longer-term Gold bull (I am), note that this is more of a shorter-term "mind your eye" warning, particularly if any apparent upward...

Peter Beuttell

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