Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Recent monetary policy and fiscal policy announcements have not been encouraging, but in fact confusing. RBI, as we shall see below, now has two monetary policy frameworks – inflation targeting and “monetary targeting’’ – that it wants to follow – and these could be contradictory creating confusion about monetary policy intent. The RBI’s policy quandary has to an extent been driven by the poor quality of the fiscal adjustment that the government has undertaken. The Indian government’s fiscal consolidation efforts thus far have been an accounting mirage. The political and the monetary authorities will need to work together to frame appropriate and coordinated policies to ward off the emerging risks to the economy.

Recent monetary policy and fiscal policy announcements have not been encouraging, but in fact confusing. RBI, as we shall see below, now has two monetary policy frameworks – inflation targeting and “monetary targeting’’ – that it wants to follow – and these could be contradictory creating confusion about monetary policy intent. The RBI’s policy quandary has to an extent been driven by the poor quality of the fiscal adjustment that the government has undertaken. The Indian government’s fiscal consolidation efforts thus far have been an accounting mirage. The political and the monetary authorities will need to work together to frame appropriate and coordinated policies to ward off the emerging risks to the economy.

Global Economic Woes Mask India's Policy Confusion

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew 1.3% y-o-y in June 2016 but the trend remains weak having declined 2% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in May 2016 compared to a fall of 4.2% y-o-y in May 2016. Imports fell by 7.3% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a decline of 13.2% y-o-y in May 2016. On a 3mma basis, imports fell 14.9% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a 20.5 % decline in…

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew 1.3% y-o-y in June 2016 but the trend remains weak having declined 2% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in May 2016 compared to a fall of 4.2% y-o-y in May 2016. Imports fell by 7.3% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a decline of 13.2% y-o-y in May 2016. On a 3mma basis, imports fell 14.9% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a 20.5 % decline in…

INDIA: Downside Risk to Rupee as Trade Data Remain Weak

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

HDFC has become the first Indian issuer to a masala bond after it raised Rs30bn (US$450m) by selling a 3-year one-month maturity rupee denominated offshore bond (Rupee denominated bonds issued offshore are popularly called masala bonds, just as offshore Yuan denominated bonds are referred to as dim sum bonds; the word masala in Hindi language means spice). HDFC issued the paper at a semi-annual coupon of 7.875% for a tenure of 37 months. Prior to this only IFC had issued Rs110bn worth of…

HDFC has become the first Indian issuer to a masala bond after it raised Rs30bn (US$450m) by selling a 3-year one-month maturity rupee denominated offshore bond (Rupee denominated bonds issued offshore are popularly called masala bonds, just as offshore Yuan denominated bonds are referred to as dim sum bonds; the word masala in Hindi language means spice). HDFC issued the paper at a semi-annual coupon of 7.875% for a tenure of 37 months. Prior to this only IFC had issued Rs110bn worth of…

Masala Bond Market: HDFC Makes a Start; Ride Unlikely to Be Smooth; INR Outlook to Guide This Market

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose by an anemic 1.2% y-o-y in May 2016 after having declined by 1.3% y-o-y in April 2016. However, on a 3 month moving average basis (3mma), production remains stagnant with a growth rate of only 0.1% y-o-y in May 2016 compared to a 0.3% y-o-y rise in April 2016. IIP growth remained weak across sectors.Manufacturing output grew marginally by 0.7% y-o-y in May 2016 compared to a decline of 3.7% y-o-y in April 2016. On a 3mma basis, manufacturing output…

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose by an anemic 1.2% y-o-y in May 2016 after having declined by 1.3% y-o-y in April 2016. However, on a 3 month moving average basis (3mma), production remains stagnant with a growth rate of only 0.1% y-o-y in May 2016 compared to a 0.3% y-o-y rise in April 2016. IIP growth remained weak across sectors.Manufacturing output grew marginally by 0.7% y-o-y in May 2016 compared to a decline of 3.7% y-o-y in April 2016. On a 3mma basis, manufacturing output…

INDIA: IIP Anemic Growth of 1.2% Inconsistent with GDP Growth of over 7%

As the global financial markets grapple with the decision taken by the UK to exit the EU, it is clear that the question of future referendums in other member countries and potential exits will likely dominate the headlines in the coming months. The Indian economy has seen its total exports decline for 18 straight months, hurt by an overvalued exchange rate as well as a weak global economy. The uncertainty that will likely unfold in the major EU countries and especially the Eurozone (EZ) will add…

As the global financial markets grapple with the decision taken by the UK to exit the EU, it is clear that the question of future referendums in other member countries and potential exits will likely dominate the headlines in the coming months. The Indian economy has seen its total exports decline for 18 straight months, hurt by an overvalued exchange rate as well as a weak global economy. The uncertainty that will likely unfold in the major EU countries and especially the Eurozone (EZ) will add…

Headwinds for India – Brexit and Its Impact Via Other Countries

India

GMR Infrastructure is an infrastructure company with interests in airports, power and roads. The Company is developing a greenfield international airport at Hyderabad, and is also operating, managing and developing the Delhi airport. Additionally, it is involved in development and operation of power plants and road projects in India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GMR Airports Infrastructure (GMRI IN)

Global Economic Woes Mask India's Policy Confusion

Recent monetary policy and fiscal policy announcements have not been encouraging, but in fact confusing. RBI, as we shall see below, now has two...

Rajan Govil

INDIA: Downside Risk to Rupee as Trade Data Remain Weak

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew...

Rajan Govil

Masala Bond Market: HDFC Makes a Start; Ride Unlikely to Be Smooth; INR Outlook to Guide This Market

HDFC has become the first Indian issuer to a masala bond after it raised Rs30bn (US$450m) by selling a 3-year one-month maturity rupee denominated...

Asia Advisors

INDIA: IIP Anemic Growth of 1.2% Inconsistent with GDP Growth of over 7%

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose by an anemic 1.2% y-o-y in May 2016 after having declined by 1.3% y-o-y in April 2016. However, on a...

Rajan Govil

Headwinds for India – Brexit and Its Impact Via Other Countries

As the global financial markets grapple with the decision taken by the UK to exit the EU, it is clear that the question of future referendums in...

Rajan Govil

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)