Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.</li><li>The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .</li><li><p>Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.</p><div></div></li></ul>

I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders is looking to raise around US$600m via selling a 6.9% stake in Mankind Pharma.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>We have looked at the IPO and lock-up release earlier. In this note, we talk about the other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders is looking to raise around US$600m via selling a 6.9% stake in Mankind Pharma.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
We have looked at the IPO and lock-up release earlier. In this note, we talk about the other deal dynamics.


Mankind Pharma Placement - Its Expensive, but at Least It’s High Quality

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)</a> entered into a license agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glaxosmithkline-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21960:1" rel="noopener">GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK LN)</a> for a B7-H4 targeted antibody-drug conjugate candidate, HS-20089, targeted toward gynecological cancers.  </li>
<li>Hansoh will receive an upfront payment of $85M and be eligible to receive milestone payments of up to $1.485B subject to achievement of relevant milestone events with respect to HS-20089.</li>
<li>Currently, HS-20089 is in phase 1 clinical trial in China. GSK plans to begin phase 1 trial of HS-20089 outside of China in 2024.</li>
</ul>



Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) entered into a license agreement with GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK LN) for a B7-H4 targeted antibody-drug conjugate candidate, HS-20089, targeted toward gynecological cancers.  
Hansoh will receive an upfront payment of $85M and be eligible to receive milestone payments of up to $1.485B subject to achievement of relevant milestone events with respect to HS-20089.
Currently, HS-20089 is in phase 1 clinical trial in China. GSK plans to begin phase 1 trial of HS-20089 outside of China in 2024.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): New Licensing Deal Boosts Conviction on Innovative Pipeline Prowess

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics (207940 KS)</a> expects 2023 revenue to grow by more than 20% YoY compared to 15–20% YoY growth expectations earlier, due to better-than-expected utilization of Plant 4.</li>
<li>For the first time in the company’s history, Samsung Biologics has won contracts worth nearly KRW3T during the first half of 2023, with eight contracts worth more than KRW100B each.</li>
<li>Anticipating strong demand, Samsung Biologics is building its fifth manufacturing plant with 180KL capacity, which is expected to be completed by April 2025.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) expects 2023 revenue to grow by more than 20% YoY compared to 15–20% YoY growth expectations earlier, due to better-than-expected utilization of Plant 4.
For the first time in the company’s history, Samsung Biologics has won contracts worth nearly KRW3T during the first half of 2023, with eight contracts worth more than KRW100B each.
Anticipating strong demand, Samsung Biologics is building its fifth manufacturing plant with 180KL capacity, which is expected to be completed by April 2025.


Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Raises 2023 Sales Guidance Second Time This Year; Buy the Dip

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

United Kingdom

GlaxoSmithKline PLC operates as a research-based pharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets vaccines, prescription, and over-the-counter medicines, as well as health-related consumer products. GlaxoSmithKline provides products for infections, depression, skin conditions, asthma, heart and circulatory disease, and cancer.

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GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK LN)

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

Mankind Pharma Placement - Its Expensive, but at Least It’s High Quality

A group of shareholders is looking to raise around US$600m via selling a 6.9% stake in Mankind Pharma. We had looked at the lockup release earlier.

Sumeet Singh

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): New Licensing Deal Boosts Conviction on Innovative Pipeline Prowess

Hansoh Pharma will receive an upfront payment of $85M and potential milestone payments of up to $1.485B. The licensed drug candidate is currently...

Tina Banerjee

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Raises 2023 Sales Guidance Second Time This Year; Buy the Dip

Samsung Bio raised 2023 sales forecast from 15–20% YoY growth to more than 20% YoY increase. Previously, in January, the company expected that this...

Tina Banerjee

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

Mankind Pharma Placement - Its Expensive, but at Least It’s High Quality

A group of shareholders is looking to raise around US$600m via selling a 6.9% stake in Mankind Pharma. We had looked at the lockup release earlier.

Sumeet Singh

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): New Licensing Deal Boosts Conviction on Innovative Pipeline Prowess

​Hansoh Pharma will receive an upfront payment of $85M and potential milestone payments of up to $1.485B. The licensed drug candidate is currently...

Tina Banerjee

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Raises 2023 Sales Guidance Second Time This Year; Buy the Dip

Samsung Bio raised 2023 sales forecast from 15–20% YoY growth to more than 20% YoY increase. Previously, in January, the company expected that this...

Tina Banerjee

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Hansoh Pharma will receive an upfront payment of $85M and potential milestone payments of up to $1.485B. The licensed drug candidate is currently...