Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We are recommending to go long on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gland-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29723:1" rel="noopener">Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN)</a> and short on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/syngene-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26923:1" rel="noopener">Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN)</a>. </li>
<li>Gland Pharma, with its niche focus on generic injectables is expected to be outlier, while Syngene, with substantial exposure to early-stage biotech research will continue to have muted performance.</li>
<li>Over the last six months, Gland Pharma shares rallied 83%, while Syngene International shares declined 5%. We expect the performance gap between the two companies will widen further.</li>
</ul>


We are recommending to go long on Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN) and short on Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN). 
Gland Pharma, with its niche focus on generic injectables is expected to be outlier, while Syngene, with substantial exposure to early-stage biotech research will continue to have muted performance.
Over the last six months, Gland Pharma shares rallied 83%, while Syngene International shares declined 5%. We expect the performance gap between the two companies will widen further.


Indian Contract Manufacturers: A Pair Trade Idea Between Gland Pharma and Syngene International

Equity Capital Markets

Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-jet-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36373:1" rel="noopener">Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd (BJHC IN)</a> is a CDMO focusing on specialty pharmaceutical and healthcare ingredients and intermediates. The company targets to raise $100M from its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>The IPO, which will open for subscription on October 25, consists of OFS of 24.3M shares by two of the promoters. The price range has been fixed at INR329–346/share.</li>
<li>Blue Jet enjoys a competitive advantage in the global contrast media market through established customer relationships with the top contrast media manufacturers. The company is on a capacity expansion spree.</li>
</ul>



Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd (BJHC IN) is a CDMO focusing on specialty pharmaceutical and healthcare ingredients and intermediates. The company targets to raise $100M from its upcoming India IPO.
The IPO, which will open for subscription on October 25, consists of OFS of 24.3M shares by two of the promoters. The price range has been fixed at INR329–346/share.
Blue Jet enjoys a competitive advantage in the global contrast media market through established customer relationships with the top contrast media manufacturers. The company is on a capacity expansion spree.


Blue Jet Healthcare IPO: Niche Offering and Long-Standing Customer Relationship Are Key Positives

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 17 February, NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. There are 5 adds and 5 deletes. </li>
<li>Last evening, NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&amp;O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from 15% earlier).</li>
<li>This changes the flows at the March rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 March.</li>
</ul>


On 17 February, NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). There are 5 adds and 5 deletes. 
Last evening, NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&amp;O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from 15% earlier).
This changes the flows at the March rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 March.


NIFTY NEXT50 /​ NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the U.S. retail generic prescription product portfolio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> for $105M.</li>
<li>The deal will add approximately 85 approved generic products and four pipeline products. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2022, this portfolio generated revenue of $111M.</li>
<li>Considering the revenue potential, the acquisition price seems to be reasonable. Being a high margin and limited competition portfolio, the acquisition will be earnings accretive for Dr. Reddy’s.</li>
</ul>



Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the U.S. retail generic prescription product portfolio of Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) for $105M.
The deal will add approximately 85 approved generic products and four pipeline products. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2022, this portfolio generated revenue of $111M.
Considering the revenue potential, the acquisition price seems to be reasonable. Being a high margin and limited competition portfolio, the acquisition will be earnings accretive for Dr. Reddy’s.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): New Acquisition to Bolster US Generic Product Portfolio

India

Gland Pharma Limited manufactures and markets small volume parenteral solutions.The Company offers injectables, including vials, ampoules, pre-filled syringes, lyophilized vials, dry powders, infusions, and ophthalmic solutions, and other active pharmaceutical ingredients. Gland Pharma conducts its business worldwide.

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Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN)

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

Indian Contract Manufacturers: A Pair Trade Idea Between Gland Pharma and Syngene International

Gland Pharma, with its niche focus on generic injectables is expected to be outlier, while Syngene, with substantial exposure to early-stage...

Tina Banerjee

Blue Jet Healthcare IPO: Niche Offering and Long-Standing Customer Relationship Are Key Positives

Blue Jet Healthcare is looking to raise $100M from its upcoming India IPO. The IPO consists of OFS of 24.3M shares by two of the promoters. The...

Tina Banerjee

NIFTY NEXT50 / NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes

NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from...

Brian Freitas

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): New Acquisition to Bolster US Generic Product Portfolio

Dr. Reddy's is acquiring the US generic prescription product portfolio of Mayne Pharma for upfront cash consideration of up to $90M. The acquired...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

Indian Contract Manufacturers: A Pair Trade Idea Between Gland Pharma and Syngene International

Gland Pharma, with its niche focus on generic injectables is expected to be outlier, while Syngene, with substantial exposure to early-stage...

Tina Banerjee

Blue Jet Healthcare IPO: Niche Offering and Long-Standing Customer Relationship Are Key Positives

Blue Jet Healthcare is looking to raise $100M from its upcoming India IPO. The IPO consists of OFS of 24.3M shares by two of the promoters. The...

Tina Banerjee

NIFTY NEXT50 /​ NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes

NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from...

Brian Freitas

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): New Acquisition to Bolster US Generic Product Portfolio

Dr. Reddy's is acquiring the US generic prescription product portfolio of Mayne Pharma for upfront cash consideration of up to $90M. The acquired...

Tina Banerjee

NIFTY NEXT50 / NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes