Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>Summary points</strong></h2><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>The best the <em>market</em> can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight">
<strong>Financialisation of commodities is a big</strong>…</div></li>
</ul>

Summary points
1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.
Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.
Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.
The best the market can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.

Financialisation of commodities is a big…


EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of 47 convicts including Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.</p><p>While some claim this is the latest manifestation of a historic Sunni-Shia hatred, digging deeper shows other, more important factors at work that could determine the fallout for the region.</p>

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of 47 convicts including Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.While some claim this is the latest manifestation of a historic Sunni-Shia hatred, digging deeper shows other, more important factors at work that could determine the fallout for the region.

China

GI Technologies (Beijing) Company Limited develops, manufactures, sells petroleum logging equipment, provides on-site technical and logging engineering services. The Company's main products are imaging logging systems, which include downhole instruments, and terrestrial systems.

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Gi Technologies (Beijing) (300309 CH)

Oil After 50%: Where Now for Stocks?

Summary points 1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion. Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves...

Mark Artherton

The Sunni-Shia Canard

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of...

Emad Mostaque

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52-week Range

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