Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to test the resistance at 1,366/1,374 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA), with the support at 1,350/1,340 points.</li><li>Overall, the index has been moving in the downchannel range of 1,320-1,410 points. In the short term, the index is rebounding after a sharp four-day decline of over 80 points last week.</li><li>A sell signal could emerge if the index fails to break through the resistance at 1,366/1,374 points. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to test the resistance at 1,366/1,374 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA), with the support at 1,350/1,340 points.Overall, the index has been moving in the downchannel range of 1,320-1,410 points. In the short term, the index is rebounding after a sharp four-day decline of over 80 points last week.A sell signal could emerge if the index fails to break through the resistance at 1,366/1,374 points. 

<ul><li>The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.</li><li>During that period, major operators experienced losses due to rising costs and declining prices, exacerbated by an influx of illegal swine supply and further compounded by sluggish consumption.</li><li>In 1H24E, domestic swine supply is projected to stabilize, with excess supply gradually diminishing.</li></ul>

The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.During that period, major operators experienced losses due to rising costs and declining prices, exacerbated by an influx of illegal swine supply and further compounded by sluggish consumption.In 1H24E, domestic swine supply is projected to stabilize, with excess supply gradually diminishing.

Meat Sector – Thai Swine Prices to Recover in 2H24E

<ul><li>In January 2024, Thai export value demonstrated significant growth, surpassing expectations with a YoY increase of 10%.</li><li>This robust performance contrasts with December 2023's growth of 4.7% YoY and the NESDC’s export growth projection for this year at 2.9%.</li><li>The healthy growth can be attributed to stronger-than-anticipated demand from trading partners, both in the primary markets — such as the US, which experienced a YoY increase of 13.7% compared to 0.3% in December — and secondary markets like Hong Kong and Russia. </li></ul>

In January 2024, Thai export value demonstrated significant growth, surpassing expectations with a YoY increase of 10%.This robust performance contrasts with December 2023's growth of 4.7% YoY and the NESDC’s export growth projection for this year at 2.9%.The healthy growth can be attributed to stronger-than-anticipated demand from trading partners, both in the primary markets — such as the US, which experienced a YoY increase of 13.7% compared to 0.3% in December — and secondary markets like Hong Kong and Russia. 

<ul><li>Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,409 points (75-day EMA/1,416 points) and the support at 1,390 points/1,387 points (25-day EMA).</li><li>The index is still moving in an upward direction, having continued to hit higher highs and higher lows for the fourth consecutive day and successfully breaching the 25-day and 50-day short-term moving averages.</li><li>The target is to test the previous resistance at 1,416 /1,438 points, respectively.</li></ul>

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,409 points (75-day EMA/1,416 points) and the support at 1,390 points/1,387 points (25-day EMA).The index is still moving in an upward direction, having continued to hit higher highs and higher lows for the fourth consecutive day and successfully breaching the 25-day and 50-day short-term moving averages.The target is to test the previous resistance at 1,416 /1,438 points, respectively.

Equity Bottom-Up

GFPT Public Company Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KTX has upgraded our rating to Neutral (FV of Bt10.56 based on a required return of 10.1%).</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest a neutral view in terms of the fundamentals and the long-term prospects, as well as tactically, after the share price fall of over 20% since January 27, 2023, when we released a report with an Underperform rating.</li><li>Although the earnings outlook remains gloomy, the firm’s broiler business should be immune to pressure from the sharp falls in swine prices while also benefitting from the peak sales season for broiler exports.</li></ul>

KTX has upgraded our rating to Neutral (FV of Bt10.56 based on a required return of 10.1%).The valuation metrics suggest a neutral view in terms of the fundamentals and the long-term prospects, as well as tactically, after the share price fall of over 20% since January 27, 2023, when we released a report with an Underperform rating.Although the earnings outlook remains gloomy, the firm’s broiler business should be immune to pressure from the sharp falls in swine prices while also benefitting from the peak sales season for broiler exports.

GFPT - Gloomy Outlook; Two-Year Earnings to Mark A -17% CAGR

Thailand

GFPT Public Company Limited produces frozen chicken parts and distributes its products under GFPT, Common Food, and Nichirei Core.  The Company sells its products to domestic and export markets.

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GFPT Public Company Limited (GFPT TB)

KTX Zoom - APRIL 24, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to test the resistance at 1,366/1,374 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA), with the support at 1,350/1,340 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Meat Sector – Thai Swine Prices to Recover in 2H24E

The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update – Exports & Imports

This robust performance contrasts with December 2023's growth of 4.7% YoY and the NESDC’s export growth projection for this year at 2.9%.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - Feb 8, 0224

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,409 points (75-day EMA/1,416 points) and the support at 1,390...

Krungthai XSpring

GFPT - Gloomy Outlook; Two-Year Earnings to Mark A -17% CAGR

The valuation metrics suggest a neutral view in terms of the fundamentals and the long-term prospects, as well as tactically, after the share price...

Krungthai XSpring

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