Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, and SDAX were announced late last night (5th December 2022).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a>'s addition to the DAX Index is the main talking point. There are more changes for the MDAX and the SDAX indices. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.</li>
</ul>


The December 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, and SDAX were announced late last night (5th December 2022).

Porsche AG (P911 GR)'s addition to the DAX Index is the main talking point. There are more changes for the MDAX and the SDAX indices. 
In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.


DAX, MDAX, SDAX Dec 2022 Rebal: DAX Inclusion for Porsche Is Positive News

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>TTF Dutch gas futures are set to rally off of trendline and price support that will ripple into oil and our DAX short theme.</li>
<li>Oil saw a lift off the 86 support base on the back of TTF Gas popping higher and prospects of a hard European winter.  </li>
<li>DAX pressure building to break the 12,400/500 pivot support that would in turn crack noted MACD support. Short theme working. New low target remains at 11,500.</li>
</ul>


TTF Dutch gas futures are set to rally off of trendline and price support that will ripple into oil and our DAX short theme.
Oil saw a lift off the 86 support base on the back of TTF Gas popping higher and prospects of a hard European winter.  
DAX pressure building to break the 12,400/500 pivot support that would in turn crack noted MACD support. Short theme working. New low target remains at 11,500.


Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In addition to shorting NDX at 13,000+, we saw key reversals in Japan and Taiwan after hitting short entry levels. Germany short is in focus as Europe tops.</li>
<li>Japan and Taiwan registered key reversals with NKY 27k and Taiwan 14,600 pivots to break.</li>
<li>Early August peak in the risk cycle ahead of a more brutal September period.</li>
</ul>


In addition to shorting NDX at 13,000+, we saw key reversals in Japan and Taiwan after hitting short entry levels. Germany short is in focus as Europe tops.
Japan and Taiwan registered key reversals with NKY 27k and Taiwan 14,600 pivots to break.
Early August peak in the risk cycle ahead of a more brutal September period.


Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window

Germany

The German Stock Index is a total return index of 40 selected German blue chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The equities use free float shares in the index calculation. The DAX has a base value of 1,000 as of December 31, 1987. As of June 18, 1999 only XETRA equity prices are used to calculate all DAX indices.

German Stock Index (DAX INDEX)

DAX, MDAX, SDAX Dec 2022 Rebal: DAX Inclusion for Porsche Is Positive News

Porsche AG (P911 GR)'s DAX addition is a positive surprise. I have previously discussed this possibility in my DAX Leaderboard insight. All the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

Dutch TTF Gas and Impact on WTI and DAX

TTF Dutch gas futures are set to rally off of trendline and price support that will ripple into oil and our DAX short theme. DAX set to crack key...

Thomas Schroeder

Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window

In addition to shorting NDX at 13,000+, we saw key reversals in Japan and Taiwan after hitting short entry levels. Germany short is in focus as...

Thomas Schroeder