Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA's recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.</li>
<li>Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.</li>
<li>Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies' market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA's recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.
Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.
Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies' market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.


Weekly Market Monitor - Week 21 - Embracing the AI Boom

<ul>
<li>AI-Hyped US Equities are not off the hook. The US Leading Indicator dropped for the 13th consecutive month, taking the index further into recessionary territory.</li>
<li>The rally in Big Tech stocks hides that only just over one-third of NASDAQ stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, the threshold between positive and negative future returns.</li>
<li>Singapore electronics exports were down a whopping 23.3% year-on-year in April, indicating a severe decline in global earnings-per-share numbers.</li>
</ul>


AI-Hyped US Equities are not off the hook. The US Leading Indicator dropped for the 13th consecutive month, taking the index further into recessionary territory.
The rally in Big Tech stocks hides that only just over one-third of NASDAQ stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, the threshold between positive and negative future returns.
Singapore electronics exports were down a whopping 23.3% year-on-year in April, indicating a severe decline in global earnings-per-share numbers.


Weekly Market Monitor - Week 19 Macro Momentum Is Fading, but Market Momentum Is Building.

<ul>
<li>The latest Empire State Manufacturing Index points to an ISM Manufacturing Index of 42.5, a recession, and lower stock markets.</li>
<li>China's reopening is driven by less than half of its economy, consumers. Production, Property, and Financing are lagging.</li>
<li>Germany – Waiting for a recession? It’s already in one.</li>
</ul>


The latest Empire State Manufacturing Index points to an ISM Manufacturing Index of 42.5, a recession, and lower stock markets.
China's reopening is driven by less than half of its economy, consumers. Production, Property, and Financing are lagging.
Germany – Waiting for a recession? It’s already in one.


Spoiler Alert: Global Macro Data Is Tilting the Wrong Way

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>At present, I do not see any movements between the DAX and MDAX indices.</li>
<li>However, there could be two changes between the MDAX and SDAX index and there could be one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
At present, I do not see any movements between the DAX and MDAX indices.
However, there could be two changes between the MDAX and SDAX index and there could be one more ADD/DEL for the SDAX index.


Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: SMA Solar, Hochtief, Adtran, Aroundtown

<ul>
<li>The December 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, and SDAX were announced late last night (5th December 2022).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a>'s addition to the DAX Index is the main talking point. There are more changes for the MDAX and the SDAX indices. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.</li>
</ul>


The December 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, and SDAX were announced late last night (5th December 2022).

Porsche AG (P911 GR)'s addition to the DAX Index is the main talking point. There are more changes for the MDAX and the SDAX indices. 
In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.


DAX, MDAX, SDAX Dec 2022 Rebal: DAX Inclusion for Porsche Is Positive News

Germany

The German Stock Index is a total return index of 40 selected German blue chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The equities use free float shares in the index calculation. The DAX has a base value of 1,000 as of December 31, 1987. As of June 18, 1999 only XETRA equity prices are used to calculate all DAX indices.

German Stock Index (DAX INDEX)

Weekly Market Monitor - Week 21 - Embracing the AI Boom

The AI Boom is real but also poses two big challenges for investors. Also real is the likelihood of another credit event now that bond yields are...

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Market Monitor - Week 19 Macro Momentum Is Fading, but Market Momentum Is Building.

Macro Momentum is fading, but market Momentum is building. Even though the outlook for Equities is challenging, markets couldn't care less currently.

Jeroen Blokland

Spoiler Alert: Global Macro Data Is Tilting the Wrong Way

The latest round of data shows Macro Momentum is fading, something that equity markets and other risky assets are not pricing currently.

Jeroen Blokland

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: SMA Solar, Hochtief, Adtran, Aroundtown

Deutsche Lufthansa AG needs its average share price in the reference period to be around 7% higher than the current price (i.e. average price...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX, MDAX, SDAX Dec 2022 Rebal: DAX Inclusion for Porsche Is Positive News

Porsche AG (P911 GR)'s DAX addition is a positive surprise. I have previously discussed this possibility in my DAX Leaderboard insight. All the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA