Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class="ul1"><li class="li2">Trends in Consumer Sentiment across three key groups of countries is very concerning and clearly illustrate the risk that a Brexit or other blows to consumer sentiment in Europe pose to the global economy.</li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li2">In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we highlight the delicate balance of the global economy going into the June 23rd (Brexit) referendum and outline our recommended asset allocation going into and coming out of the UK's decision. </li></ul>

Trends in Consumer Sentiment across three key groups of countries is very concerning and clearly illustrate the risk that a Brexit or other blows to consumer sentiment in Europe pose to the global economy.In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we highlight the delicate balance of the global economy going into the June 23rd (Brexit) referendum and outline our recommended asset allocation going into and coming out of the UK's decision. 

The Future of the Global Economy Lies in the Hands of a Small Group of Countries

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The Federal Reserve can be expected to stay on course to normalize interest rate policy through the year as the unemployment rate continues to decline, hourly earnings remain on an upward trend and other economic indicators such as retail sales, house prices and consumer sentiment continue to improve on a trend basis.We expect the pace of rate increases to be very gradual, and see the Federal Funds rate around 1.0% by the end of 2016. The pace of increase will depend on the strength of the US…

The Federal Reserve can be expected to stay on course to normalize interest rate policy through the year as the unemployment rate continues to decline, hourly earnings remain on an upward trend and other economic indicators such as retail sales, house prices and consumer sentiment continue to improve on a trend basis.We expect the pace of rate increases to be very gradual, and see the Federal Funds rate around 1.0% by the end of 2016. The pace of increase will depend on the strength of the US…

US: Federal Reserve to Stay on Course to Normalize Rates

Recently global equity markets have come under stress due to the high degree of uncertainty stemming from US Fed’s recent FOMC meeting, political risk in the US around Trump’s candidacy and the upcoming vote for a Brexit set to take place on June 23rd.  Inaction among four major central banks this week has highlighted the fact that major policy makers are very uncertain about the impact that a potential Brexit may have on the global economy. While the risk of Brexit seems to have faded today the markets may not have fully appreciated the risk to the global economy of a Brexit.The UK economy and consumer sentiment is tightly tied to a number of other European countries which have high consumer sentiment that has been buoying overall consumer sentiment.  Any risk to this group of exuberant countries puts global consumer sentiment at real risk of a sharp drop.

 Recently global equity markets have come under stress due to the high degree of uncertainty stemming from US Fed’s recent FOMC meeting, political risk in the US around Trump’s candidacy and the upcoming vote for a Brexit set to take place on June 23rd.  Inaction among four major central banks this week has highlighted the fact that major policy makers are very uncertain about the impact that a potential Brexit may have on the global economy. While the risk of Brexit seems to have faded today the markets may not have fully appreciated the risk to the global economy of a Brexit.The UK economy and consumer sentiment is tightly tied to a number of other European countries which have high consumer sentiment that has been buoying overall consumer sentiment.  Any risk to this group of exuberant countries puts global consumer sentiment at real risk of a sharp drop.

Global Economy Dodges a Bullet - Brexit Could Cause Global Recession

Asymmetric Payoffs, Thracian Capital Management

Asymmetric Payoffs

Thracian Capital Management

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates.

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates. 

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Tesla's brand clearly has cachet; it appeals to both environmentalists and tech early adopters and could one day help earn the firm an economic moat. On the other hand, we still see massive uncertainty and risks around the company's future and the adoption of pure electric vehicles, which we refer to as EVs or battery electric vehicles (BEVs).GM does not get enough credit for its electrification work such as the Chevrolet Volt, Chevrolet Spark, and the all-new Chevrolet Bolt due out late this year. Tesla has overshadowed GM's efforts and perhaps caused some would-be auto investors to ignore what we believe is a very cheap stock that is unfairly ignored. GM's vehicles are the best they've been in years, in our view, the company is buying back plenty of its own stock while it is undervalued, and the turnaround story is still not done—the company has cost-cutting programs still in progress as well as more scale to extract from its roughly 10 million unit annual sales volume.We see GM's stock having attractive upside with far less risk than Tesla.Analyst: David Whiston

Tesla's brand clearly has cachet; it appeals to both environmentalists and tech early adopters and could one day help earn the firm an economic moat. On the other hand, we still see massive uncertainty and risks around the company's future and the adoption of pure electric vehicles, which we refer to as EVs or battery electric vehicles (BEVs).GM does not get enough credit for its electrification work such as the Chevrolet Volt, Chevrolet Spark, and the all-new Chevrolet Bolt due out late this year. Tesla has overshadowed GM's efforts and perhaps caused some would-be auto investors to ignore what we believe is a very cheap stock that is unfairly ignored. GM's vehicles are the best they've been in years, in our view, the company is buying back plenty of its own stock while it is undervalued, and the turnaround story is still not done—the company has cost-cutting programs still in progress as well as more scale to extract from its roughly 10 million unit annual sales volume.We see GM's stock having attractive upside with far less risk than Tesla.Analyst: David Whiston

Rise of the Electric Car or Still a Long Road Ahead? We Prefer GM Over Tesla as an Investment

United States

General Motors Co. manufactures and markets new cars and trucks. The Company offers features for special needs drivers, OnStar vehicle protection, service, parts, accessories, maintenance, XM satellite radio, features for commercial owners, and more. General Motors offers its vehicles and services worldwide.

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General Motors (GM US)

The Future of the Global Economy Lies in the Hands of a Small Group of Countries

Trends in Consumer Sentiment across three key groups of countries is very concerning and clearly illustrate the risk that a Brexit or other blows...

David Riedel

US: Federal Reserve to Stay on Course to Normalize Rates

The Federal Reserve can be expected to stay on course to normalize interest rate policy through the year as the unemployment rate continues to...

Rajan Govil

Global Economy Dodges a Bullet - Brexit Could Cause Global Recession

Recently global equity markets have come under stress due to the high degree of uncertainty stemming from US Fed’s recent FOMC meeting, political...

David Riedel

Market Commentary (June 2016)

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility,...

Asymmetric Payoffs

Rise of the Electric Car or Still a Long Road Ahead? We Prefer GM Over Tesla as an Investment

Tesla's brand clearly has cachet; it appeals to both environmentalists and tech early adopters and could one day help earn the firm an economic...

Morningstar, Inc.

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