Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis</li>
<li>It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier</li>
<li>But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales</li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier
But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales


China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

<ul>
<li>Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role</li>
<li>But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary</li>
<li>Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications</li>
</ul>


Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role
But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary
Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications


China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

<ul>
<li>The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend</li>
<li>What lies beneath - a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices</li>
<li>In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday</li>
</ul>


The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend
What lies beneath - a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices
In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday


China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We look at the key annual macro-property data for 2011-2023 and review the past 'group forecasts' for new home sales in China in 2023 and 2022</li>
<li>The views in 2023 proved more in line with the actual than in 2022 but NBS revisions to 2022 new home sales data (Mar-Dec) add some complications</li>
<li>You can <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">join this year's 'draw the line'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th Annual China Property Outlook</li>
</ul>


We look at the key annual macro-property data for 2011-2023 and review the past 'group forecasts' for new home sales in China in 2023 and 2022
The views in 2023 proved more in line with the actual than in 2022 but NBS revisions to 2022 new home sales data (Mar-Dec) add some complications
You can join this year's 'draw the line' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th Annual China Property Outlook


China Property: In Hindsight On 2023 and 2022 Forecasts | "Draw The Line" 2024

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 5-11, 2024

Hong Kong

Gemdale Properties and Investment Corporation Limited, through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, and manages properties. The Company also develops and manages business parks, invests in info-communications and education projects, and provides technology services.

Price Gauge
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Gemdale Properties And Inv Corp (535 HK)

China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

We slice and dice various metrics for China 'macro-property' data with today's NBS release of the new data for September 2023.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

China Property: We point out an important distinction between the Primary and Secondary Housing Markets and the implications; based on the data for...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

In this note, we present the Real Estate Foresight's Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: In Hindsight On 2023 and 2022 Forecasts | "Draw The Line" 2024

Before getting into the forecasts for 2024, reviewing how the past forecasts fared vs the actuals can be quite illuminating, here is the case for...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 5-11, 2024

This note is a weekly (Jan 5-11, 2024) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)