External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 43% YoY in Jan 2023, in line with our prior forecast of 44% YoY decline.</li><li>Wholesale volume fell 33% YoY last month, 30% stronger than our prior projection, largely due to much weaker than-expected inventory destocking and higher export volume.</li><li>PV exports only fell 9% MoM to about 250,000 units in Jan 2023. Automakers only cut about 26,000 units of inventories in their dealers’ showrooms in Jan 2023 based on our calculations, despite early Chinese New Year, which has led to more than two months of inventories based on our projected retail sales volume for Feb and Mar 2023. I</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 43% YoY in Jan 2023, in line with our prior forecast of 44% YoY decline.Wholesale volume fell 33% YoY last month, 30% stronger than our prior projection, largely due to much weaker than-expected inventory destocking and higher export volume.PV exports only fell 9% MoM to about 250,000 units in Jan 2023. Automakers only cut about 26,000 units of inventories in their dealers’ showrooms in Jan 2023 based on our calculations, despite early Chinese New Year, which has led to more than two months of inventories based on our projected retail sales volume for Feb and Mar 2023. IContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Inventory risk could lead to a bumpy recovery

Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

<ul><li>European Parliament has approved the law to effectively ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans in EU from 2035, aiming to speed up the switch to EV and combat climate change.</li><li>The law has been drafted and agreed by EU countries last October and finally legislated on 14 Feb 2022.</li><li>EU targets to reduce 100% CO2 emission produced by new cars and vans in 2035 with an intermediate goal of 55% for cars and 50% for vans in 2030.</li></ul>

European Parliament has approved the law to effectively ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans in EU from 2035, aiming to speed up the switch to EV and combat climate change.The law has been drafted and agreed by EU countries last October and finally legislated on 14 Feb 2022.EU targets to reduce 100% CO2 emission produced by new cars and vans in 2035 with an intermediate goal of 55% for cars and 50% for vans in 2030.

<ul><li>Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on 1 Feb 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 22% YoY (ranged from -86% to +449%) and dropped 42% MoM (ranged from -87% to -23%)</li><li>Li Auto beat, NIO and Xpeng miss. Li Auto delivered over 15,000 units in Jan 2023, exceeding some investors’ expectation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on 1 Feb 2023.Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 22% YoY (ranged from -86% to +449%) and dropped 42% MoM (ranged from -87% to -23%)Li Auto beat, NIO and Xpeng miss. Li Auto delivered over 15,000 units in Jan 2023, exceeding some investors’ expectation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jan NEV likely in line or slightly miss; Li Auto beat

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. We project Geely’s net profit in 2H22E to rise 95% HoH to RMB 3.0bn.</li><li>We estimate Geely’s FY23E net profit to rise 21% YoY to RMB 5.5bn under our assumption of 1.53mn units (vs. the company’s target of 1.65mn units).</li><li>We also forecast Geely’s new-energy vehicle’s (NEV) sales volume to surge 74% YoY in FY23E, which could be a positive catalyst for its share price.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. We project Geely’s net profit in 2H22E to rise 95% HoH to RMB 3.0bn.We estimate Geely’s FY23E net profit to rise 21% YoY to RMB 5.5bn under our assumption of 1.53mn units (vs. the company’s target of 1.65mn units).We also forecast Geely’s new-energy vehicle’s (NEV) sales volume to surge 74% YoY in FY23E, which could be a positive catalyst for its share price.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Geely Automobile (175 HK) – 2H22E net profit to almost double HoH

<ul><li>Upgrade to BUY. We upgrade Geely Automobile to BUY from Hold as we see progressive improvement at Zeekr and more PHEV model rollouts next year, which could boost its NEV sales to about 40% of total sales volume in FY23, on our estimates.</li><li>We value Zeekr slightly higher than Xpeng’s current market cap and Geely’s other businesses at 15x our FY23E P/E.</li><li>Zeekr is likely to end the year of 2022 with its sales target of 70,000 units achieved, which exceeds many investors’ initial expectation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Upgrade to BUY. We upgrade Geely Automobile to BUY from Hold as we see progressive improvement at Zeekr and more PHEV model rollouts next year, which could boost its NEV sales to about 40% of total sales volume in FY23, on our estimates.We value Zeekr slightly higher than Xpeng’s current market cap and Geely’s other businesses at 15x our FY23E P/E.Zeekr is likely to end the year of 2022 with its sales target of 70,000 units achieved, which exceeds many investors’ initial expectation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Geely Automobile (175 HK) – PHEV could be a positive surprise in FY23

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

China Auto Sector – Inventory risk could lead to a bumpy recovery

Wholesale volume fell 33% YoY last month, 30% stronger than our prior projection, largely due to much weaker than-expected inventory destocking and...

CMB International

Tactical Trade Idea – Auto Sector

EU zero-emission target by 2035 may place Chinese carmakers on the fast track. The law has been drafted and agreed by EU countries last October and...

Quam Securities

China Auto Sector – Jan NEV likely in line or slightly miss; Li Auto beat

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their Jan 2023 sales volumes on...

CMB International

Geely Automobile (175 HK) – 2H22E net profit to almost double HoH

We estimate Geely’s FY23E net profit to rise 21% YoY to RMB 5.5bn under our assumption of 1.53mn units (vs. the company’s target of 1.65mn units).

CMB International

Geely Automobile (175 HK) – PHEV could be a positive surprise in FY23

Upgrade to BUY. We upgrade Geely Automobile to BUY from Hold as we see progressive improvement at Zeekr and more PHEV model rollouts next year...

CMB International

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