Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, regulatory and accounting developments, and the macro outlook. We also comment broadly on the H1/20 results of the Indonesian real estate players under our coverage. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, regulatory and accounting developments, and the macro outlook. We also comment broadly on the H1/20 results of the Indonesian real estate players under our coverage.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2020) - Lucror Analytics

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK) </a>exhibits strong bullish underpinnings with 10.50 macro quad lows that form a base line and cleared wedge resistance in an impulsive manner. Buy volumes have been improving since June. Macro upside tied to the bullish MACD coil from the initial June breakout point.Geely met our ideal buy target at 10.50 in early June outlined in our insight from April 2020 and cleared resistance at 13.00 and wedge resistance at 14.50 in an impulsive manner. 19.50 dual top represents the hurdle to clear to make headway.Geely just broke out of wave 4 triangulation with near support at 16.50 with risk to the 16.00 zone that sets up a wave 5 rise.Quad base line support and bullish MACD set up display macro bull potential.

Geely Auto (175 HK) exhibits strong bullish underpinnings with 10.50 macro quad lows that form a base line and cleared wedge resistance in an impulsive manner. Buy volumes have been improving since June. Macro upside tied to the bullish MACD coil from the initial June breakout point.Geely met our ideal buy target at 10.50 in early June outlined in our insight from April 2020 and cleared resistance at 13.00 and wedge resistance at 14.50 in an impulsive manner. 19.50 dual top represents the hurdle to clear to make headway.Geely just broke out of wave 4 triangulation with near support at 16.50 with risk to the 16.00 zone that sets up a wave 5 rise.Quad base line support and bullish MACD set up display macro bull potential.

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Equity Bottom-Up

Geely posted its STAR Board IPO prospectus which has been approved by SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange) on 1st of Sep. According to the prospectus, Geely would launch no more than 1.732bn new shares with proposed Rmb20.42bn proceeds. IPO price is pending.
Refer to Geely's most comparable peer's A-share valuation and STAR Board valuation premium, we estimate Geely's A-share fair value to be Rmb28.6-31.5 per share.  IPO price of Rmb25 per share, which is mentioned in market rumors, would be attractive.

Geely posted its STAR Board IPO prospectus which has been approved by SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange) on 1st of Sep. According to the prospectus, Geely would launch no more than 1.732bn new shares with proposed Rmb20.42bn proceeds. IPO price is pending.
Refer to Geely's most comparable peer's A-share valuation and STAR Board valuation premium, we estimate Geely's A-share fair value to be Rmb28.6-31.5 per share.  IPO price of Rmb25 per share, which is mentioned in market rumors, would be attractive. 

Geely (175.HK): STAR Board IPO on the Road

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - August 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Geely's share performance has been weak since the publication of its 1H2020 results and lowering of its FY2020 sales target. We believe the worst is behind us. Geely's 1H2020 earnings might be weaker than expected, but it's led by Covid-19 lockdown, the impact of which has faded recently. Moreover Geely's lowered FY2020 sales target indicates the company's improved confidence on its car sales in 2H2020.On the other hand, Geely might have its STAR IPO done in September with IPO price above Rmb25 per share, according to market chatter. If that valuation is realized, Geely might be the only OEM who has least cashflow risk in the next two years if another pandemic lockdown happens. Rmb25 of IPO price indicates 33x P/E 2020E, vs Geely H share's current valuation of 18x. A valuation rerating might be triggered on Geely's H share.Buy on weakness.

Geely's share performance has been weak since the publication of its 1H2020 results and lowering of its FY2020 sales target. We believe the worst is behind us. Geely's 1H2020 earnings might be weaker than expected, but it's led by Covid-19 lockdown, the impact of which has faded recently. Moreover Geely's lowered FY2020 sales target indicates the company's improved confidence on its car sales in 2H2020.On the other hand, Geely might have its STAR IPO done in September with IPO price above Rmb25 per share, according to market chatter. If that valuation is realized, Geely might be the only OEM who has least cashflow risk in the next two years if another pandemic lockdown happens. Rmb25 of IPO price indicates 33x P/E 2020E, vs Geely H share's current valuation of 18x. A valuation rerating might be triggered on Geely's H share.Buy on weakness.

Geely (175.HK): Weakness Post Results Overdone, in Light of Imminent STAR Board IPO

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2020) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19...

Lucror Analytics

Geely Macro Bullish off Quad Lows

Geely Auto (175 HK) exhibits strong bullish underpinnings with 10.50 macro quad lows that form a base line and cleared wedge resistance in an...

Thomas Schroeder

Geely (175.HK): STAR Board IPO on the Road

Geely posted its STAR Board IPO prospectus which has been approved by SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange) on 1st of Sep. According to the prospectus,...

Victoria Li

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - August 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for the month of August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas....

Lucror Analytics

Geely (175.HK): Weakness Post Results Overdone, in Light of Imminent STAR Board IPO

Geely's share performance has been weak since the publication of its 1H2020 results and lowering of its FY2020 sales target. We believe the worst...

Victoria Li

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