Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p><br/> The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.<br/></p>

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>In <em><a href="https://skr.ma/Bx5Bh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: Evergrande Auto (708 HK) Tapping All &amp; Sundry; ASM Pacific Going Private?</a></em>, I discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-health-industry-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a>'s (also officially known as China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0918/2020091800129.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> of an intention to list on Shanghai's Sci-Tech Board (also known as the "Star Market").</p>
<p>A notice for the EGM has now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0925/2020092501950.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">despatched</a>. The EGM will be held on the 20 October. Pricing has yet to be determined for the listing, but the announcement states:</p>
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<p>The offer price shall not be lower than the closing price of the Hong Kong Shares immediately prior to the date of the Board meeting approving the Proposed Issue of RMB Shares, i.e. HK$25.00 per Share.</p>
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<p>Shares are down ~20% since that Board meeting - after taking into account today's 20% gain.  </p>
<p>Applying the timeline for a handful of precedent RMB issuances,  Evergrande Auto's listing on the STAR board could potentially take place in late Jan/early Feb 2021. </p>
<p>As usual, more below the fold.</p>
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In StubWorld: Evergrande Auto (708 HK) Tapping All &amp; Sundry; ASM Pacific Going Private?, I discussed Evergrande Auto (708 HK)'s (also officially known as China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group) announcement of an intention to list on Shanghai's Sci-Tech Board (also known as the "Star Market").
A notice for the EGM has now been despatched. The EGM will be held on the 20 October. Pricing has yet to be determined for the listing, but the announcement states:

The offer price shall not be lower than the closing price of the Hong Kong Shares immediately prior to the date of the Board meeting approving the Proposed Issue of RMB Shares, i.e. HK$25.00 per Share.

Shares are down ~20% since that Board meeting - after taking into account today's 20% gain.  
Applying the timeline for a handful of precedent RMB issuances,  Evergrande Auto's listing on the STAR board could potentially take place in late Jan/early Feb 2021. 
As usual, more below the fold.


Evergrande Auto (708 HK): EGM Ahead Of Star Market Listing

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Evergrande Auto, Cocokara, Leyou, Mitsu Lease/Hitachi Cap

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>The recent performance of China auto shares has been sluggish. We believe the market is waiting for more data to confirm that the uptrend of auto sales would continue in 4Q2020 or not.</strong></p><p><strong>Latest data from CPCA  says China's auto retail sales growth accelerated to 12% yoy in second week of Sep from 1% yoy in first week of Sep, and forecasted an 18% yoy for third week of Sep. Interestingly,  CPCA has also conservatively forecasted a 8% yoy growth for entire Sep, which looks slightly disappointing. This might be holding investors back.</strong></p><p><strong>We also saw positive comments from local media's (CLS) interviews with auto sector experts on 22 Sep.  OEMs and dealers interviewed confirmed that passenger vehicle sector is further recovering and in restocking cycle. Auto components companies said their orders are getting better than in 2Q2020, which echoes the recovery comments from OEMs and dealers. </strong></p><p><strong>Our positive view on Geely remains intact. Geely's STAR Board IPO is going to be reviewed by NDRC on 28th Sep. Once approved, it's H-share should benefit from positive news flows.</strong></p>

The recent performance of China auto shares has been sluggish. We believe the market is waiting for more data to confirm that the uptrend of auto sales would continue in 4Q2020 or not.Latest data from CPCA  says China's auto retail sales growth accelerated to 12% yoy in second week of Sep from 1% yoy in first week of Sep, and forecasted an 18% yoy for third week of Sep. Interestingly,  CPCA has also conservatively forecasted a 8% yoy growth for entire Sep, which looks slightly disappointing. This might be holding investors back.We also saw positive comments from local media's (CLS) interviews with auto sector experts on 22 Sep.  OEMs and dealers interviewed confirmed that passenger vehicle sector is further recovering and in restocking cycle. Auto components companies said their orders are getting better than in 2Q2020, which echoes the recovery comments from OEMs and dealers. Our positive view on Geely remains intact. Geely's STAR Board IPO is going to be reviewed by NDRC on 28th Sep. Once approved, it's H-share should benefit from positive news flows.

China Auto: September Blues, but Recovery Thesis Intact

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Three days after raising HK$4bn via a top-up placement, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-health-industry-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a> </strong>("EA") also officially known as <strong>China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group</strong> announces an intention to list on Shanghai's Sci-Tech Board (also know as the "STAR Market").</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on <strong>EA</strong> <em>and </em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">Asm Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a>, are at the top of the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Three days after raising HK$4bn via a top-up placement, Evergrande Auto (708 HK) ("EA") also officially known as China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group announces an intention to list on Shanghai's Sci-Tech Board (also know as the "STAR Market").



Preceding my comments on EA and Asm Pacific Technology (522 HK), are at the top of the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.





These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Evergrande Auto (708 HK) Tapping All & Sundry; ASM Pacific Going Private?

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report...

Lucror Analytics

Evergrande Auto (708 HK): EGM Ahead Of Star Market Listing

This week in StubWorld ... Three days after raising HK$4bn via a top-up placement, Evergrande Auto (708 HK) ("EA") also officially known...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Evergrande Auto, Cocokara, Leyou, Mitsu Lease/Hitachi Cap

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

China Auto: September Blues, but Recovery Thesis Intact

We noticed recent market weakeness on

Victoria Li

StubWorld: Evergrande Auto (708 HK) Tapping All & Sundry; ASM Pacific Going Private?

This week in StubWorld ... Shareholders are the big loser as the US, UK and China turn HSBC Holdings (5 HK) into a political...

David Blennerhassett

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