Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.</li>
<li>We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  </li>
<li>Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.</li>
</ul>


The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.
We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  
Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.


Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in progress.</li>
<li>There is little to do besides continue to ride the trend higher following our 11/5/24 and 11/19/24 Compass reports which both had "Buy the Pullback" in the title</li>
<li>We also continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in progress.
There is little to do besides continue to ride the trend higher following our 11/5/24 and 11/19/24 Compass reports which both had "Buy the Pullback" in the title
We also continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)


Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

<ul>
<li>The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM</li>
<li>Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.</li>
<li>Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.</li>
</ul>


The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM
Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.
Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.


Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

United States

The Gap, Inc., is an international specialty retailer operating retail and outlet stores.  The Company sells casual apparel, accessories and personal care products for men, women, and children. The Gap operates stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, and Japan.

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Gap Inc/The (GPS US)

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

Short names on our workbench (under research) provide a window into our idea generation process. Today, we are flagging They are: Scotts Miracle...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish $SPX $IWM $QQQ; MSCI EAFE $EFA, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and Europe $HEDJ $FEZ to Join the Party?...

Vermilion Research

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

10/31/23 we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers as key $SPX $QQQ $IWM supports were being tested. 11/7/23 we argued it was MORE than just...

Vermilion Research

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