Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Surge in revenue during 1Q24 may have implications for a return to strong profit growth</li>
<li>There is no evidence of structurally weaker core costs, like COGS and SGA and even R&amp;D</li>
<li>ROE is now above 20% and this after it large capital raising in FY22</li>
</ul>


Surge in revenue during 1Q24 may have implications for a return to strong profit growth
There is no evidence of structurally weaker core costs, like COGS and SGA and even R&amp;D
ROE is now above 20% and this after it large capital raising in FY22


Raydium Semiconductor - Acceleration of Revenue in 1Q24 Has Positive Implications

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Qingdao Haier Biomedical  Lt / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearly 85% of the way through the review period, we see 2 changes using a 12-month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6-month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>Given the significantly higher market cap of the inclusions using a 6-month minimum listing history, we expect the index committee will continue to use the shorter listing history requirement.</li>
<li>With 5 changes a side, one-way turnover is estimated at 5.15% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,994m. Impact on some deletions is quite high.</li>
</ul>


Nearly 85% of the way through the review period, we see 2 changes using a 12-month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6-month minimum listing history.
Given the significantly higher market cap of the inclusions using a 6-month minimum listing history, we expect the index committee will continue to use the shorter listing history requirement.
With 5 changes a side, one-way turnover is estimated at 5.15% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,994m. Impact on some deletions is quite high.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Another Five Potential Changes in March

Shanghai United Imaging Health / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The index committee has continued to use a 6-month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>All changes are in line with our forecasts and there appears to be some pre-positioning over the last week as the deletes have sold off hard.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover is estimated at 5.34% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,766m. The estimated impact on the deletes is higher than that on the adds.</li>
</ul>


The index committee has continued to use a 6-month minimum listing history leading to five changes to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in December.
All changes are in line with our forecasts and there appears to be some pre-positioning over the last week as the deletes have sold off hard.
One-Way turnover is estimated at 5.34% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,766m. The estimated impact on the deletes is higher than that on the adds.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes in the Last Week

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, there could be 4 changes using a 12-month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6-month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>The market cap of potential adds using a 6-month minimum listing history is higher and there is a higher probability of a 6-month minimum listing history being used.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the index. Similar to the last few rebalances, we could see the adds outperform post the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, there could be 4 changes using a 12-month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6-month minimum listing history.
The market cap of potential adds using a 6-month minimum listing history is higher and there is a higher probability of a 6-month minimum listing history being used.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the index. Similar to the last few rebalances, we could see the adds outperform post the end of the review period.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Stable Long/Short Performance in a Volatile Market

<ul>
<li>Nearly 90% of the way through the review period, we see 4 changes using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>There are overlaps in the inclusions using 6/12 month minimum listing history, so there is less risk if the index committee switches from 6 to 12 months at the review.</li>
<li>Using a 6 month minimum listing history, one-way turnover is estimated at 5.07% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 2,795m.</li>
</ul>


Nearly 90% of the way through the review period, we see 4 changes using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.
There are overlaps in the inclusions using 6/12 month minimum listing history, so there is less risk if the index committee switches from 6 to 12 months at the review.
Using a 6 month minimum listing history, one-way turnover is estimated at 5.07% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 2,795m.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four or Five Changes in December

China

GalaxyCore Inc. develops, manufactures, and distributes emiconductor and integrated circuits. The Company produces complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) image sensor and display driver chips. GalaxyCore supplies its products in consumer electronics, mobile payment, automotive electronics, and other fields.

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GalaxyCore (688728 CH)

Raydium Semiconductor - Acceleration of Revenue in 1Q24 Has Positive Implications

Acceleration of revenue in 1Q24 is exceptional and this may mark the beginning of far better growth at the bottom line, lacking in the past 1-2 years.

Daniel Tabbush

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Another Five Potential Changes in March

There could be 5 changes using a 6-month minimum listing history. One-way turnover will be 5%+ resulting in a one-way trade of CNY4bn. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Adds Outperform Deletes in the Last Week

There are 5 changes for the STAR50 in Dec. The changes were forecast; the adds have outperformed the deletes in the last week. Historically, a long...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Stable Long/Short Performance in a Volatile Market

We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history. That means 5 changes in December. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four or Five Changes in December

There could be 4/5 changes if a 12/6 month minimum listing history is used. Using a 6 month minimum listing history, one-way turnover is estimated...

Brian Freitas

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