Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Last evening post market close in Hong Kong, Hang Seng Indexes released an <a href="https://www.hsi.com.hk/static/uploads/contents/en/news/indexChgNotice/20201030T100000.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">index notice</a> announcing a new Fast Entry rule for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.As one can imagine, this is being done solely to ensure the early inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> in the index. Index investors would then look at buying index futures and other derivatives on the HSCEI to play the upside. The early inclusion could also help the HSCEI to catch up with other China focused indices, where it has been a laggard for some time now.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>'s Fast Entry into the index will also mean that one stock needs to be deleted, though from the index rules it is not very clear if that would happen at the regular index review in December 2020 or March 2021.In this Insight, we take a look at the impact of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>'s inclusion in the HSCEI on the stock and what it means for the other stocks in the index.

Last evening post market close in Hong Kong, Hang Seng Indexes released an index notice announcing a new Fast Entry rule for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).As one can imagine, this is being done solely to ensure the early inclusion of Ant Group (6688 HK) in the index. Index investors would then look at buying index futures and other derivatives on the HSCEI to play the upside. The early inclusion could also help the HSCEI to catch up with other China focused indices, where it has been a laggard for some time now.Ant Group (6688 HK)'s Fast Entry into the index will also mean that one stock needs to be deleted, though from the index rules it is not very clear if that would happen at the regular index review in December 2020 or March 2021.In this Insight, we take a look at the impact of Ant Group (6688 HK)'s inclusion in the HSCEI on the stock and what it means for the other stocks in the index. 

Ant Group: Everyone Wants a Piece of The Action - HSCEI Fast Entry

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

Our money is on Taiwan. The pandemic is behind, the economy is rebounding faster than anticipated. Underlying fundamentals of the 2019 business cycle upswing resuming. The damage to corporate profitability has been limited compared with regional peers Korean and Japanese companies and the investment upcycle has not be derailed. We expect Taiwan to among this year’s regional growth outperformers. The only downside risk is rising Taiwan-China tensions. But we suspect change is afoot.

Our money is on Taiwan. The pandemic is behind, the economy is rebounding faster than anticipated. Underlying fundamentals of the 2019 business cycle upswing resuming. The damage to corporate profitability has been limited compared with regional peers Korean and Japanese companies and the investment upcycle has not be derailed. We expect Taiwan to among this year’s regional growth outperformers. The only downside risk is rising Taiwan-China tensions. But we suspect change is afoot.  

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

SPX turned bearish below 3,410 and we used the DJI to short at 27,700 (break below 28k pivot support) given the Dow is underperforming the SPX. NDX below 11,600 is the core risk driver. Lack of stimulus clarity and Covid on the rise weighing on pivot support breaks. Big tech earnings today expected to give NDX a lift (bounce trade up).SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 represent key pivot resistance points for a fresh short phase and the bull/bear line.Asia long levels outlined on weakness.

SPX turned bearish below 3,410 and we used the DJI to short at 27,700 (break below 28k pivot support) given the Dow is underperforming the SPX. NDX below 11,600 is the core risk driver. Lack of stimulus clarity and Covid on the rise weighing on pivot support breaks. Big tech earnings today expected to give NDX a lift (bounce trade up).SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 represent key pivot resistance points for a fresh short phase and the bull/bear line.Asia long levels outlined on weakness.

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.There were 21 changes to the index at the June review, and we expect up to 24 changes in the December review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.06% and there are 4 inclusions and 11 deletions that could have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.With passive tracking products holding around US$28bn of AUM, plus another US$35bn in open interest on the listed futures, there could be significant moves in the inclusion/exclusion names ahead of the rebalance announcement. There will only be 9-10 trading days between the announcement of the changes and the implementation, so having a pre-position should pay off.

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.There were 21 changes to the index at the June review, and we expect up to 24 changes in the December review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.06% and there are 4 inclusions and 11 deletions that could have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.With passive tracking products holding around US$28bn of AUM, plus another US$35bn in open interest on the listed futures, there could be significant moves in the inclusion/exclusion names ahead of the rebalance announcement. There will only be 9-10 trading days between the announcement of the changes and the implementation, so having a pre-position should pay off.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 21 Changes in June, Could Be 24 in December

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Odd Finance Minister Commentary: A report on Bloomberg, suggests that Finance Minister Albayrak has ruled out capital controls in Turkey. This is strange, as capital controls have already been in place for well over a year given the longer settlement dates, higher taxes, limited liquidity, threats of prison, et al. These reported comments suggest a full blown crisis is a fait accompli;  *Low Rates Destroying TRY: Turkey is a slow moving train wreck thanks largely to the policies of President Erdogan. The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is keeping interest rates low, and failed to raise interest rates at its latest meeting – against consensus of a 200 bp increase. Despite what were punitive capital controls (in contravention to the Finance Minister’s comments), the Turkish lira (TRY) actually declined 2% on the day the CBT failed to raise rates at its last meeting – now nearing 8.2 TRY/USD and achieving another record low down 40% YTD versus the USD when most other currencies are strengthening versus the USD;  and*Risk Is High For Europe, and an EM Domino Effect Is Real: BBVA (BBVA.SM), BNP Paribas (BNPP.FP), and Unicredit (UCG.IM), and HSBC Holding (5.HK) are most exposed. With Turkish corporates/banking system F/X debt in the USD hundreds of billions, worries over counterparty risks are arising. Investors are likely to continue to take advantage an artificially high TRY by continuing to sell while the getting is still good. Geopolitical risk only adds to our concern.

*Odd Finance Minister Commentary: A report on Bloomberg, suggests that Finance Minister Albayrak has ruled out capital controls in Turkey. This is strange, as capital controls have already been in place for well over a year given the longer settlement dates, higher taxes, limited liquidity, threats of prison, et al. These reported comments suggest a full blown crisis is a fait accompli;  *Low Rates Destroying TRY: Turkey is a slow moving train wreck thanks largely to the policies of President Erdogan. The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is keeping interest rates low, and failed to raise interest rates at its latest meeting – against consensus of a 200 bp increase. Despite what were punitive capital controls (in contravention to the Finance Minister’s comments), the Turkish lira (TRY) actually declined 2% on the day the CBT failed to raise rates at its last meeting – now nearing 8.2 TRY/USD and achieving another record low down 40% YTD versus the USD when most other currencies are strengthening versus the USD;  and*Risk Is High For Europe, and an EM Domino Effect Is Real: BBVA (BBVA.SM), BNP Paribas (BNPP.FP), and Unicredit (UCG.IM), and HSBC Holding (5.HK) are most exposed. With Turkish corporates/banking system F/X debt in the USD hundreds of billions, worries over counterparty risks are arising. Investors are likely to continue to take advantage an artificially high TRY by continuing to sell while the getting is still good. Geopolitical risk only adds to our concern.

Turkey – Start Worrying About Counterparties

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

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