'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Cross Asset Strategy

• TW3 NORTH ASIA 12~18 AUGUST •Smartkarma's North Asian Insight providers produced 20 new Insights this week, evenly split between 'bullish' and 'bearish' but with Korean being the 'loser' in terms of the bull/bear ratio at 2/5 compared to Japan's 8/5. These are far from happy days in Seoul as well-noted on Smarktkarma by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> EVENT - DRIVEN<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> highlights an actionable trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-chemical-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16624:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Chemical Industries (4471 JP)</a> post results and covers the resolution of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unizo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5209:1" rel="noopener">Unizo (3258 JP)</a> search for a white knight which may result in a better deal for Fortress/Softbank than the shareholders and management of Unizo in the long term.</li>
<li>Travis and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> discuss the next steps following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a>'s decision to favour <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi (3088 JP)</a> as its merger partner. Mio thinks there is a good fit and better than the other potential suitors. Travis believes the current ratio is 'overcooked' and would look to short if it trades to 1.80 again.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener">Sanghyun Park</a> looks at Emart's buyback and store sale and leaseback but thinks it is too early to buy the consolidation story especially with Coupang on the prowl (see below).</li>
</ul>IPOS &amp; PLACEMENTS<ul>
<li>Mr Flowers and his firm are finally giving up on Shinsei after two decades and several investments. This sale, some of which will be at a loss, leaves Flowers with 9.75m shares. Shinsei's remaining buyback is only 30% of the ¥61.5b offering. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> does not like the deal, and the timing suggests we are far from a bottom in the banking sector in Japan.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> covers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-leben-real-estate-inv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28262:1" rel="noopener">Takara Leben Real Estate Inv (3492 JP)</a> s ¥14.7b offering which will partly fund six new properties. He suggests participating at around a 10% discount to the last close. </li>
</ul>EQUITY BOTTOM-UP    <ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/lightstream-research" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:909" rel="noopener">LightStream Research</a> provides us with a handy primer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a> s potential M&amp;A candidates. </li>
<li>In Korea, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> thinks the time is right to revisit baker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spc-samlip" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6007:1" rel="noopener">SPC Samlip (005610 KS)</a> of Paris Baguette/Croissant fame, which is immune to most of Korea's current woes. Having fallen 80% in four years, the 10% bounce this week suggests now is the time to BUY. Conversely, he would take profits on his excellent call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCsoft Corp (036570 KS)</a> which have outperformed by 51% in the year since he recommended the stock.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener">Sanghyun Park</a> has changed his mind on Softbank's Coupang, which is capturing mind and wallet-share of Korea's over 50s and creating more headaches for Emart and Lotte.</li>
<li>Finally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> remains sceptical on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baroque-japan-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23639:1" rel="noopener">Baroque Japan (3548 JP)</a> 's plans for growth in China where it has yet to achieve traction despite having 249 stores there currently.</li>
</ul> RESULTS COMMENTARY<ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a> updates us on the quarterly results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">Monotaro Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimadzu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17679:1" rel="noopener">Shimadzu (7701 JP)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> has deeper and bearish takes on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP)</a>.    </li></ul>THEMATIC &amp; STRATEGY/GOVERNANCE &amp; SHENANIGANS<ul><li>A trio of bearish notes from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> round out the week in Korea with Korea's tit-for-tat 'whitelist' exclusion of Japan, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-electric-power-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16:1" rel="noopener">Korea Electric Power (015760 KS) </a>'s decision to set up a university and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duzonbizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Duzonbizon (012510 KS)</a> 's equally troubling decision to buy a large building to bolster the Chairman's ego. It doesn't just rain in Seoul, it pours! 
</li></ul><div class="content-highlight">EVENT DRIVEN: BULLISH</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sanyochem-vs-nipponshokubai-an-even-better-trade-now" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31779" rel="noopener">SanyoChem &amp; Nippon Shokubai: An Even Better Trade Now</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyo-cocokara-merger-quantamental-analysis-shows-matsukiyo-in-fact-is-the-best-fit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31793" rel="noopener">Matsukiyo-Cocokara: Quantamental Analysis Shows Matsukiyo is the Best Fit</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fortress-group-fund-bids-for-unizo-3258-an-interesting-tob" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31798" rel="noopener">Fortress Group Fund Bids for UNIZO (3258):  An Interesting TOB</a> <div style="text-align: center;" class="content-highlight">EVENT DRIVEN: BEARISH</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/emart-crisis-huge-recap-industry-consolidation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31720" rel="noopener">Emart: Buyback &amp; Asset Sale/Leaseback</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-3098-going-with-matsukiyo-3088-but-ratio-overextended" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31733" rel="noopener">Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended</a> <div style="text-align: center;" class="content-highlight">IPOs &amp; PLACEMENTS: BULLISH</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shinsei-bank-placement-a-long-time-coming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31699" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank Placement - A Long Time Coming</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/takara-leben-reit-placement-fully-priced-acquisitions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31774" rel="noopener">Takara Leben REIT Placement: Fully Priced Acquisitions</a> <div style="text-align: center;" class="content-highlight">EQUITY BOTTOM-UP: BULLISH</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/m-as-will-continue-for-nidec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31721" rel="noopener">M&amp;A Will Continue For Nidec</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spc-samlip-bottoming-out-after-four-years-of-decline" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31735" rel="noopener">SPC Samlip: Bottoming Out After Four Years of Decline?</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/recent-data-of-coupang-sobank-vf-ai-initiative-emart-crisis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31801" rel="noopener">Recent Data of Coupang, SoftBank VF AI Initiative &amp; Emart Crisis</a> <div style="text-align: center;" class="content-highlight">EQUITY BOTTOM-UP: BEARISH</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ncsoft-time-to-take-profits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31673" rel="noopener">NCsoft - Time to Take Profits</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baroque-100-billion-in-sales-in-5-years-maybe" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31800" rel="noopener">Baroque: ¥100 Billion in Sales in 5 Years…maybe</a> <div style="text-align: center;" class="content-highlight">RESULTS COMMENTARY:  BULLISH</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monotaro-3064-jp-stuck-in-a-trading-range" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31725" rel="noopener">MonotaRO (3064 JP): Stuck in a Trading Range</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smc-6273-jp-contraction-accelerates-again-in-1q" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31732" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP): Contraction Accelerates Again in 1Q</a> <div style="text-align: center;" class="content-highlight">RESULTS COMMENTARY:  BEARISH</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/harmonic-drive-not-out-of-the-woods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31705" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive: Not Out of the Woods</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fanuc-recovery-strength-or-lack-thereof-is-a-risk-2-6x-pb-for-a-single-digit-roe-is-too" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31768" rel="noopener">Fanuc: Risks in Lack of Recovery &amp; 2.6x PB for a Single Digit ROE</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shimadzu-7701-jp-weak-1q-points-to-downward-revision" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31770" rel="noopener">Shimadzu (7701 JP):  Weak 1Q Points to Downward Revision</a> <div style="text-align: center;" class="content-highlight">THEMATIC &amp; STRATEGY: BEARISH</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/south-korea-excludes-japan-from-its-whitelist-a-list-of-25-japanese-stocks-impacted-by-conflict" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31680" rel="noopener">South Korea Excludes Japan from Its Whitelist</a><div class="content-highlight">GOVERNANCE &amp; SHENANIGANS: BEARISH</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kepco-technology-university-a-strong-case-of-corporate-governance-neglect" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31658" rel="noopener">KEPCO Technology University - A Strong Case of Corporate Governance Neglect?</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/duzonbizon-time-to-take-profits-company-buying-a-big-building-destroying-value" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31709" rel="noopener">Duzonbizon - Time to Take Profits; Company Buying a Big Building Destroying Value</a>

• TW3 NORTH ASIA 12~18 AUGUST •Smartkarma's North Asian Insight providers produced 20 new Insights this week, evenly split between 'bullish' and 'bearish' but with Korean being the 'loser' in terms of the bull/bear ratio at 2/5 compared to Japan's 8/5. These are far from happy days in Seoul as well-noted on Smarktkarma by Douglas Kim EVENT - DRIVEN

Travis Lundy highlights an actionable trade in Sanyo Chemical Industries (4471 JP) post results and covers the resolution of Unizo (3258 JP) search for a white knight which may result in a better deal for Fortress/Softbank than the shareholders and management of Unizo in the long term.
Travis and Mio Kato discuss the next steps following Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)'s decision to favour Matsumotokiyoshi (3088 JP) as its merger partner. Mio thinks there is a good fit and better than the other potential suitors. Travis believes the current ratio is 'overcooked' and would look to short if it trades to 1.80 again.

Sanghyun Park looks at Emart's buyback and store sale and leaseback but thinks it is too early to buy the consolidation story especially with Coupang on the prowl (see below).
IPOS &amp; PLACEMENTS
Mr Flowers and his firm are finally giving up on Shinsei after two decades and several investments. This sale, some of which will be at a loss, leaves Flowers with 9.75m shares. Shinsei's remaining buyback is only 30% of the ¥61.5b offering. Zhen Zhou, Toh does not like the deal, and the timing suggests we are far from a bottom in the banking sector in Japan.

Arun George covers Takara Leben Real Estate Inv (3492 JP) s ¥14.7b offering which will partly fund six new properties. He suggests participating at around a 10% discount to the last close. 
EQUITY BOTTOM-UP    

LightStream Research provides us with a handy primer on Nidec (6594 JP) s potential M&amp;A candidates. 
In Korea, Douglas Kim thinks the time is right to revisit baker SPC Samlip (005610 KS) of Paris Baguette/Croissant fame, which is immune to most of Korea's current woes. Having fallen 80% in four years, the 10% bounce this week suggests now is the time to BUY. Conversely, he would take profits on his excellent call on NCsoft Corp (036570 KS) which have outperformed by 51% in the year since he recommended the stock.


Sanghyun Park has changed his mind on Softbank's Coupang, which is capturing mind and wallet-share of Korea's over 50s and creating more headaches for Emart and Lotte.
Finally, Michael Causton remains sceptical on Baroque Japan (3548 JP) 's plans for growth in China where it has yet to achieve traction despite having 249 stores there currently.
 RESULTS COMMENTARY
Scott Foster updates us on the quarterly results for Monotaro Co Ltd (3064 JP), SMC (6273 JP), Shimadzu (7701 JP), while Mio Kato has deeper and bearish takes on Fanuc (6954 JP) and Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP).    THEMATIC &amp; STRATEGY/GOVERNANCE &amp; SHENANIGANSA trio of bearish notes from Douglas Kim round out the week in Korea with Korea's tit-for-tat 'whitelist' exclusion of Japan, Korea Electric Power (015760 KS) 's decision to set up a university and Duzonbizon (012510 KS) 's equally troubling decision to buy a large building to bolster the Chairman's ego. It doesn't just rain in Seoul, it pours!  
EVENT DRIVEN: BULLISHSanyoChem &amp; Nippon Shokubai: An Even Better Trade Now Matsukiyo-Cocokara: Quantamental Analysis Shows Matsukiyo is the Best Fit Fortress Group Fund Bids for UNIZO (3258):  An Interesting TOB EVENT DRIVEN: BEARISHEmart: Buyback &amp; Asset Sale/Leaseback Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended IPOs &amp; PLACEMENTS: BULLISHShinsei Bank Placement - A Long Time Coming Takara Leben REIT Placement: Fully Priced Acquisitions EQUITY BOTTOM-UP: BULLISHM&amp;A Will Continue For Nidec SPC Samlip: Bottoming Out After Four Years of Decline? Recent Data of Coupang, SoftBank VF AI Initiative &amp; Emart Crisis EQUITY BOTTOM-UP: BEARISHNCsoft - Time to Take Profits Baroque: ¥100 Billion in Sales in 5 Years…maybe RESULTS COMMENTARY:  BULLISHMonotaRO (3064 JP): Stuck in a Trading Range SMC (6273 JP): Contraction Accelerates Again in 1Q RESULTS COMMENTARY:  BEARISHHarmonic Drive: Not Out of the Woods Fanuc: Risks in Lack of Recovery &amp; 2.6x PB for a Single Digit ROE Shimadzu (7701 JP):  Weak 1Q Points to Downward Revision THEMATIC &amp; STRATEGY: BEARISHSouth Korea Excludes Japan from Its WhitelistGOVERNANCE &amp; SHENANIGANS: BEARISHKEPCO Technology University - A Strong Case of Corporate Governance Neglect? Duzonbizon - Time to Take Profits; Company Buying a Big Building Destroying Value 

🇰🇷🇯🇵 That Was The Week That Was • North Asia 12th ~18th August 2019 @Smartkarma

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

We previously mentioned that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> is on the lookout for further acquisitions and that the company expects inorganic growth to be an important driver for achieving its JPY 2trn revenue target. Its recent acquisition was the compressor business of Whirlpool, while Omron is the latest deal (still in process) to drive the automotive parts business segment of Nidec.  As we mentioned in our previous insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/our-first-look-at-nidec-too-good-to-short" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30478" rel="noopener">Our First Look at Nidec: Too Good To Short</a>, early last year the Nikkei reported that Nidec is considering two to three small or medium-size acquisitions, worth up to JPY10bn each, aiming to expand its product line in the robotics and press machinery areas. As planned, the company did acquire two private companies in these areas of business since mid-2018:  Systeme + Steuerungen GMBH in Germany (Pressing machines) and CIMA S.p.A., in Italy (commercial and industrial motors) alongside around five acquisitions in the precision and gearbox motors product areas since then. However, Nidec did not specifically release any further details on the number of acquisitions it plans to make to reach its JPY 1trn revenue target in the Automotive segment, or how much funding it hopes to set aside for its M&amp;A deals in this area.
Nidec’s acquisitions include a decent number of private companies.  Looking into Nidec’s M&amp;A trend during the recent past, we have put forward a list of some large public companies and a few small companies based on certain key factors Nidec might consider when acquiring. However, it should be noted that the company may also acquire private companies who might prove to be key growth drivers for its business.  Moreover, we also looked into the product mix (making sure the companies selected had a presence in the automotive and industrial markets) and geographical coverage. We also carried out an analysis on the financial benefits that may possibly accrue to Nidec.  When combined, certain acquisitions may bring down Nidec’s profitability, as these companies’ have lower margins.  However, we believe that Nidec can still improve these companies’ performance post-acquisition, as it has done in the past.
We go through the details below.

We previously mentioned that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) is on the lookout for further acquisitions and that the company expects inorganic growth to be an important driver for achieving its JPY 2trn revenue target. Its recent acquisition was the compressor business of Whirlpool, while Omron is the latest deal (still in process) to drive the automotive parts business segment of Nidec.  As we mentioned in our previous insight, Our First Look at Nidec: Too Good To Short, early last year the Nikkei reported that Nidec is considering two to three small or medium-size acquisitions, worth up to JPY10bn each, aiming to expand its product line in the robotics and press machinery areas. As planned, the company did acquire two private companies in these areas of business since mid-2018:  Systeme + Steuerungen GMBH in Germany (Pressing machines) and CIMA S.p.A., in Italy (commercial and industrial motors) alongside around five acquisitions in the precision and gearbox motors product areas since then. However, Nidec did not specifically release any further details on the number of acquisitions it plans to make to reach its JPY 1trn revenue target in the Automotive segment, or how much funding it hopes to set aside for its M&amp;A deals in this area.
Nidec’s acquisitions include a decent number of private companies.  Looking into Nidec’s M&amp;A trend during the recent past, we have put forward a list of some large public companies and a few small companies based on certain key factors Nidec might consider when acquiring. However, it should be noted that the company may also acquire private companies who might prove to be key growth drivers for its business.  Moreover, we also looked into the product mix (making sure the companies selected had a presence in the automotive and industrial markets) and geographical coverage. We also carried out an analysis on the financial benefits that may possibly accrue to Nidec.  When combined, certain acquisitions may bring down Nidec’s profitability, as these companies’ have lower margins.  However, we believe that Nidec can still improve these companies’ performance post-acquisition, as it has done in the past.
We go through the details below.

Taiwan

Forcecon Tech Co Ltd's designs, develops and manufactures thermal modules and fans for computers.

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Forcecon Tech (3483 TT)

🇰🇷🇯🇵 That Was The Week That Was • North Asia 12th ~18th August 2019 @Smartkarma

• TW3 NORTH ASIA 12~18 AUGUST •Smartkarma's North Asian Insight providers produced 20 new Insights this week, evenly split between 'bullish' and...

Campbell Gunn

M&As Will Continue For Nidec

We previously mentioned that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) is on the lookout for further acquisitions and that the company expects inorganic growth to be an...

Aqila Ali

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