Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

2020 marked our second full year of operations as an Independent Research Company, and our fifth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM). While the year started off on a precarious note for ECM, it ended with very strong momentum. Even as IPOs have hogged the limelight in 2020, we actually ended up covering more than twice the number of placements as IPOs. We ended 2020 with an accuracy rate of 72.7% across 88 IPOs that we covered and 70.1% across 174 placements. While our placements hit rate improved, our IPO hit rate took a dip from 2019.For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific (ex-Korea), including China ADRs.

2020 marked our second full year of operations as an Independent Research Company, and our fifth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM). While the year started off on a precarious note for ECM, it ended with very strong momentum. Even as IPOs have hogged the limelight in 2020, we actually ended up covering more than twice the number of placements as IPOs. We ended 2020 with an accuracy rate of 72.7% across 88 IPOs that we covered and 70.1% across 174 placements. While our placements hit rate improved, our IPO hit rate took a dip from 2019.For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific (ex-Korea), including China ADRs.

Aequitas 2020 IPOs and Placements Performance - IPOs in the Limelight but Placements Stole the Show

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9838:1" rel="noopener">Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ)</a> aims to raise up to US$185m (NZ$301 m) in its fully underwritten institutional placement. The shares are trading nearly 62% below their 52-week highs, as the company was suffering even before COVID-19. This placement will provide the company with some relief on its covenants. At 95 days of ADV and 25% dilution the deal won't be easy to digest.

Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ) aims to raise up to US$185m (NZ$301 m) in its fully underwritten institutional placement. The shares are trading nearly 62% below their 52-week highs, as the company was suffering even before COVID-19. This placement will provide the company with some relief on its covenants. At 95 days of ADV and 25% dilution the deal won't be easy to digest.

Z Energy Placement - Closer to a Do or Die Situation

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Flight Centre Travel / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flight-centre-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7537:1" rel="noopener">Flight Centre Travel (FLT AU)</a> is looking to raise A$701m through a fully underwritten institutional and entitlement offering.Overall, the deal scores poorly on momentum. While the equity raise could help with tiding the company through this tough period, uncertainty still looms. Furthermore, its poor performance prior to the virus outbreak adds on to doubts on whether FLT will ever return to its past glory even if virus outbreak is eventually resolved.

Flight Centre Travel (FLT AU) is looking to raise A$701m through a fully underwritten institutional and entitlement offering.Overall, the deal scores poorly on momentum. While the equity raise could help with tiding the company through this tough period, uncertainty still looms. Furthermore, its poor performance prior to the virus outbreak adds on to doubts on whether FLT will ever return to its past glory even if virus outbreak is eventually resolved.

Flight Centre Equity Raise - Cost Cutting Measures in Place but Doubts Will Probably Linger On

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

Australia

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd operates as a retail travel agency in Australia.  The Company operates close to 1200 outlets throughout Australia and internationally including New Zealand, Hong Kong, South Africa, Canada and the United Kingdom. The Company's agencies and brands include Flight Centre, Travel Associates and Student Flights.

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Flight Centre Travel (FLT AU)

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

Aequitas 2020 IPOs and Placements Performance - IPOs in the Limelight but Placements Stole the Show

2020 marked our second year of operations as an Independent Research Company, and our fifth year covering ECM. In 2020 we had an accuracy rate of...

Sumeet Singh

Z Energy Placement - Closer to a Do or Die Situation

Z Energy Ltd (ZEL NZ) aims to raise up to US$185m (NZ$301 m) in its fully underwritten institutional placement. The shares are trading nearly 62%...

Sumeet Singh

Flight Centre Equity Raise - Cost Cutting Measures in Place but Doubts Will Probably Linger On

Flight Centre Travel (FLT AU) is looking to raise A$701m through a fully underwritten institutional and entitlement offering.Overall, the deal...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels,...

Vermilion Research

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