Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include a host of energy plays (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lukoil-pjsc-2bfe0130-461e-4ff3-af12-93bec12e6325" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27148:1" rel="noopener">LUKOIL (LKOH RM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a>,  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>) as well as a return for South African banking group <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firstrand-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24971:1" rel="noopener">FirstRand Ltd (FSR SJ)</a>, and a recovery call for Chinese online gaming powerhouse <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 169pt;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 119pt;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 95pt;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc-6a7231a9-d5e4-4da4-bf21-aa1b9d50fbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27578:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM)</a> </td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lukoil-pjsc-2bfe0130-461e-4ff3-af12-93bec12e6325" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27148:1" rel="noopener">LUKOIL (LKOH RM)</a> </td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a> </td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Thailand</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:418:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Land (1109 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Real Estate</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Communication</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firstrand-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24971:1" rel="noopener">FirstRand Ltd (FSR SJ)</a> </td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>South Africa</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">51</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmc-norilsk-nickel-pjsc-dcb09449-eb24-4747-b1c9-77fbf35e8398" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33242:1" rel="noopener">MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC (GMKN RX)</a> </td>
<td>Materials</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left;">Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include a host of energy plays (Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX), LUKOIL (LKOH RM), PTT PCL (PTT TB),  and CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)) as well as a return for South African banking group FirstRand Ltd (FSR SJ), and a recovery call for Chinese online gaming powerhouse NetEase (9999 HK).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1

Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM) 
Energy
Russian Federation
12


2

LUKOIL (LKOH RM) 
Energy
Russian Federation
28


3

PTT PCL (PTT TB) 
Energy
Thailand
30


4

China Resources Land (1109 HK) 
Real Estate
China
5


5

NetEase (9999 HK) 
Communication
China
47


6

FirstRand Ltd (FSR SJ) 
Financials
South Africa
68


7

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) 
Energy
China
25


8

Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) 
Financials
China
51


9

MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC (GMKN RX) 
Materials
Russian Federation
22


10

New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
3

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions. 

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Africa has been described as the "final frontier". Regarding financial services, the adoption of new technologies is progressing fast in young underbanked populations. And the market is huge- almost the size of India or China. It is here that there is greatest potential returns and the greatest risk- from climate change, terrorism etc. Zimbabwe is a case in point: high risk but highly profitable.South Africa is a regional hub, not just for manufacturing but for financial services.  The top banks with broadly similar business models have ample exposure to high-risk high-return markets outside their home base. Just as say, though to a lesser scale, the Colombian banks tap into opportunities in Central America.The South African system has weather the C-19 storm better than many foretold and remains resilient and open to external financing. Impaired Loans hover around 5% which seems a fair reflection of the Asset Quality of the system unlike elsewhere. Liquidity and Capitalisation (helped by dividend restrictions) are on an upward trend though lower interest rates have exerted a negative pull on NIM/Spread and Profitability (despite Cost of Funds reduction) as LLPs have risen fast and top-lines have flatlined. This has affected Efficiency ratios. Writeback of provisions has yet to materialise in contrast to other markets. This means that the PH Score has eroded. The deterioration in value-quality trends though has been more than offset by the commodity tailwind which has underpinned South African bank shares. There are similarities again with Brazil.Despite their exposure to regional markets, South African banks remain mainly a narrative around the Sovereign. They hold a lot of government debt. Credit risk is more pronounced in the Sovereign than the banks. Low growth, high unemployment, C-19 and its impact on tourism and mining, and a dysfunctional energy market remain huge challenges. But the top banks adopt quality risk management policies in the face of potential and real defaults in areas such as car loans, consumer finance, and SMEs.With the top banks, as has been mentioned there are great similarities in business model, though there are nuances and slight differences of identity and focus. Standard Bank Group is partially owned by ICBC and thus has more of a Chinese connection.  Nedbank has a concentration in CRE which has as yet not revealed stresses from C-19. FirstRand has its merchant bank. Absa, Standard, Nedbank, and FirstRand all share a pan-African focus. Capitec is somewhat different structurally though with a mass market proposition, more susceptible to labour statistics, though lower income inhabitants tend to be better clients than many think.South African bank shares have had a good run of late. They have coped better than many thought, including this author. I underestimated the impact of higher commodities and extent of funding expansion (Liquidity injection) on the sector. Valuations are now of course higher. Once we get higher PH Scores, I will be somewhat more confident.  That could be around the corner in some cases with writebacks of provisions at some stage. But the market remains quite highly rated. For a reason: top South African banks (again like Brazil) know their onions.  Regarding recent trading history, momentum is not bad though the reflation story has taken a few knocks of late and shares have run out of steam.

Africa has been described as the "final frontier". Regarding financial services, the adoption of new technologies is progressing fast in young underbanked populations. And the market is huge- almost the size of India or China. It is here that there is greatest potential returns and the greatest risk- from climate change, terrorism etc. Zimbabwe is a case in point: high risk but highly profitable.South Africa is a regional hub, not just for manufacturing but for financial services.  The top banks with broadly similar business models have ample exposure to high-risk high-return markets outside their home base. Just as say, though to a lesser scale, the Colombian banks tap into opportunities in Central America.The South African system has weather the C-19 storm better than many foretold and remains resilient and open to external financing. Impaired Loans hover around 5% which seems a fair reflection of the Asset Quality of the system unlike elsewhere. Liquidity and Capitalisation (helped by dividend restrictions) are on an upward trend though lower interest rates have exerted a negative pull on NIM/Spread and Profitability (despite Cost of Funds reduction) as LLPs have risen fast and top-lines have flatlined. This has affected Efficiency ratios. Writeback of provisions has yet to materialise in contrast to other markets. This means that the PH Score has eroded. The deterioration in value-quality trends though has been more than offset by the commodity tailwind which has underpinned South African bank shares. There are similarities again with Brazil.Despite their exposure to regional markets, South African banks remain mainly a narrative around the Sovereign. They hold a lot of government debt. Credit risk is more pronounced in the Sovereign than the banks. Low growth, high unemployment, C-19 and its impact on tourism and mining, and a dysfunctional energy market remain huge challenges. But the top banks adopt quality risk management policies in the face of potential and real defaults in areas such as car loans, consumer finance, and SMEs.With the top banks, as has been mentioned there are great similarities in business model, though there are nuances and slight differences of identity and focus. Standard Bank Group is partially owned by ICBC and thus has more of a Chinese connection.  Nedbank has a concentration in CRE which has as yet not revealed stresses from C-19. FirstRand has its merchant bank. Absa, Standard, Nedbank, and FirstRand all share a pan-African focus. Capitec is somewhat different structurally though with a mass market proposition, more susceptible to labour statistics, though lower income inhabitants tend to be better clients than many think.South African bank shares have had a good run of late. They have coped better than many thought, including this author. I underestimated the impact of higher commodities and extent of funding expansion (Liquidity injection) on the sector. Valuations are now of course higher. Once we get higher PH Scores, I will be somewhat more confident.  That could be around the corner in some cases with writebacks of provisions at some stage. But the market remains quite highly rated. For a reason: top South African banks (again like Brazil) know their onions.  Regarding recent trading history, momentum is not bad though the reflation story has taken a few knocks of late and shares have run out of steam.

South African Banks: Opportunities and Risks

This insight provides the output, and an overview of, our proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approached to finding the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for 12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sberbank-of-russia-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24142:1" rel="noopener">Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI)</a>.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 169pt;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 119pt;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 95pt;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td>CNOOC LTD</td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td>GAZPROM</td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">89</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td>CHINA RESOURCES LAND LTD</td>
<td>Real Estate</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td>PTT NON-VOTING DR PCL</td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Thailand</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td>MEDIATEK INC</td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
<td>PAO NOVATEK GDR</td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td>GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LTD</td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
<td>SBERBANK ROSSII</td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
<td>SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS LTD</td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td>FIRSTRAND LTD</td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>South Africa</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">30</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left;">Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

This insight provides the output, and an overview of, our proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approached to finding the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for 12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1
CNOOC LTD
Energy
China
25


2
GAZPROM
Energy
Russian Federation
89


3
CHINA RESOURCES LAND LTD
Real Estate
China
45


4
PTT NON-VOTING DR PCL
Energy
Thailand
39


5
MEDIATEK INC
Information Technology
Taiwan
81


6
PAO NOVATEK GDR
Energy
Russian Federation
48


7
GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LTD
Consumer Discretionary
China
2


8
SBERBANK ROSSII
Financials
Russian Federation
59


9
SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS LTD
Information Technology
Korea (South)
41


10
FIRSTRAND LTD
Financials
South Africa
30

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firstrand-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24971:1" rel="noopener">FirstRand Ltd (FSR SJ)</a> For all of FSR’s “resilience”, a key buzzword along with “normalising” at the bank in its IR material, we fear the situation is more stressed than meets the eye (narrative of “limited vulnerabilities”) given headwinds such as endowment impact, asset quality deterioration, and macro-vaccine uncertainty and that management is putting an understandably brave face on erosion in its main markets. Maybe the glass is “half full”. Management sees better business conditions since June. EM, commodity, and FX tailwinds may be supportive. However, given the current valuation, distorted to some extent by C-19, we have a more cautious standpoint.The Group is composed of FNB, RMB, Wesbank, and UK operations. FNB has mature subsidiaries in Botswana, Eswatini, and Namibia and more challenging emerging operations in Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, Ghana and Lesotho. We note that some 35% (and rising) of credit emanates from outside South Africa (mainly Europe as it has extensive UK interests in Aldermore and MotoNovo)- this is a diversifier but hardly an endorsement of the core home market or pan-African proposition. FSR has a reasonably balanced loan portfolio, split by consumer and corporate credit, backed by source of funding from a robust CASA deposit franchise. Digital operations are progressing at a fair clip.FQ221/ FQ220 LTM results show negative fundamental momentum and trends with deterioration in Profitability, in NIM, in Efficiency, in headline Asset Quality and in Capital Adequacy though Liquidity and Provisioning exhibited some enhancement. Growth in “Core Income” was flat, in line with credit growth. Much higher Loan Loss Provisions exerted a downward pull on the bottom-line.<div class="content-highlight">A FV of &gt;20%, a PBV of 2.16x, an Earnings Yield of 4.75%, and a Total Return Ratio of 0.22x are not appealing. The bank commands both a low PH Score™ (3.8) and a bottom quartile VFM ranking given a high valuation and elevated RSI.</div>

FirstRand Ltd (FSR SJ) For all of FSR’s “resilience”, a key buzzword along with “normalising” at the bank in its IR material, we fear the situation is more stressed than meets the eye (narrative of “limited vulnerabilities”) given headwinds such as endowment impact, asset quality deterioration, and macro-vaccine uncertainty and that management is putting an understandably brave face on erosion in its main markets. Maybe the glass is “half full”. Management sees better business conditions since June. EM, commodity, and FX tailwinds may be supportive. However, given the current valuation, distorted to some extent by C-19, we have a more cautious standpoint.The Group is composed of FNB, RMB, Wesbank, and UK operations. FNB has mature subsidiaries in Botswana, Eswatini, and Namibia and more challenging emerging operations in Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, Ghana and Lesotho. We note that some 35% (and rising) of credit emanates from outside South Africa (mainly Europe as it has extensive UK interests in Aldermore and MotoNovo)- this is a diversifier but hardly an endorsement of the core home market or pan-African proposition. FSR has a reasonably balanced loan portfolio, split by consumer and corporate credit, backed by source of funding from a robust CASA deposit franchise. Digital operations are progressing at a fair clip.FQ221/ FQ220 LTM results show negative fundamental momentum and trends with deterioration in Profitability, in NIM, in Efficiency, in headline Asset Quality and in Capital Adequacy though Liquidity and Provisioning exhibited some enhancement. Growth in “Core Income” was flat, in line with credit growth. Much higher Loan Loss Provisions exerted a downward pull on the bottom-line.A FV of &gt;20%, a PBV of 2.16x, an Earnings Yield of 4.75%, and a Total Return Ratio of 0.22x are not appealing. The bank commands both a low PH Score™ (3.8) and a bottom quartile VFM ranking given a high valuation and elevated RSI.

FSR: Provisioning & Liquidity Are Bright Spots in a Challenging Narrative

South Africa

FirstRand Limited is a portfolio of separately branded, integrated financial services businesses offering a universal set of transactional, lending, investment and insurance products and services in South Africa, certain markets in sub-Saharan Africa and the UK.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

FirstRand (FSR SJ)

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Screening for GEMs: September 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

South African Banks: Opportunities and Risks

South African bank shares have performed well of late, underpinned by commodities narrative. They remain quite highly rated though long-term the...

Paul Hollingworth

Screening for GEMs: May 2021

This insight provides an overview of our proprietary GEM screening model which is based on a multifactor screening model, a Deep Neural Network...

Wium Malan, CFA

FSR: Provisioning & Liquidity Are Bright Spots in a Challenging Narrative

FirstRand can benefit from commodity, FX, and EM tailwinds. We are though more cautious at these levels which price in a lot of benign news.

Paul Hollingworth

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)