Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Strong Man Strikes Again: Lighting has struck again, not five months since his hiring, Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) Governor Agbal has now been dismissed for raising interest rates. President Erdogan handpicked Sahap Kavcioglu as new CBT Governor. He is the fourth CBT Governor in two years, and a banking professor and newspaper columnist who has argued for lower interest rates, after serving a a lawmaker in Erdogan’s AKP party. We all know what happens when academics are in charge; and*Watch Your Risk: The TRL’s decline is troublesome, and the potential for a TRL gray market would NOT be of surprise at this stage. We continue to worry about counterparty risks should defaults rise. It’s probably not a bad time to start thinking about purchasing CDS protection on single name securities and on the Turkish sovereign.

*Strong Man Strikes Again: Lighting has struck again, not five months since his hiring, Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) Governor Agbal has now been dismissed for raising interest rates. President Erdogan handpicked Sahap Kavcioglu as new CBT Governor. He is the fourth CBT Governor in two years, and a banking professor and newspaper columnist who has argued for lower interest rates, after serving a a lawmaker in Erdogan’s AKP party. We all know what happens when academics are in charge; and*Watch Your Risk: The TRL’s decline is troublesome, and the potential for a TRL gray market would NOT be of surprise at this stage. We continue to worry about counterparty risks should defaults rise. It’s probably not a bad time to start thinking about purchasing CDS protection on single name securities and on the Turkish sovereign.

*NDAA Legislation: The US Congress is set to approve the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) legislation next week with bi-partisan support. Several provisions have targeted Turkey - only adding to its troubles; and *Halkbank Has A Target On It’s Back: There remain significant risks related to Halkbank’s (HALKB.TI) skirting Iran sanctions. Halkbank being removed from USD clearing system would be a very logical sanction, and could do significant damage to the Turkish financial system given how reliant the system is on USD.

*NDAA Legislation: The US Congress is set to approve the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) legislation next week with bi-partisan support. Several provisions have targeted Turkey - only adding to its troubles; and *Halkbank Has A Target On It’s Back: There remain significant risks related to Halkbank’s (HALKB.TI) skirting Iran sanctions. Halkbank being removed from USD clearing system would be a very logical sanction, and could do significant damage to the Turkish financial system given how reliant the system is on USD.  

*Strong Man Strikes Again: Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) Governor Murat Uysal has been released from his duties, and Naci Agbal has been appointed as the new CBT governor. President Erdogan abruptly fired former Governor Uysal after just 16 months, after he indicated that interest rates may increase again in 2020; and*Watch Your Risk: The TRY’s decline of 43% YTD is troublesome, and the potential for a TRY gray market would NOT be of surprise at this stage. We continue to worry about counterparty risks should defaults rise. It’s probably not a bad time to start thinking about purchasing CDS protection on single name securities and on the Turkish sovereign.

*Strong Man Strikes Again: Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) Governor Murat Uysal has been released from his duties, and Naci Agbal has been appointed as the new CBT governor. President Erdogan abruptly fired former Governor Uysal after just 16 months, after he indicated that interest rates may increase again in 2020; and*Watch Your Risk: The TRY’s decline of 43% YTD is troublesome, and the potential for a TRY gray market would NOT be of surprise at this stage. We continue to worry about counterparty risks should defaults rise. It’s probably not a bad time to start thinking about purchasing CDS protection on single name securities and on the Turkish sovereign.

*Train Wreck: The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is keeping interest rates low, and failed to raise interest rates at its latest meeting last week – against consensus of a 200 bp increase. In our view, low rates are likely to result in modest inflation. Despite what feel like punitive capital controls, the Turkish lira (TRY) actually declined 2% on day – nearing 8 TRY/USD achieving another record low and down 35% YTD versus the USD; *Artificially High Turkish Lira: CBT data exhibits that the easing of trading restrictions resulted in foreign investor selling nearly 70% of their previously held Turkish government bonds and equities YTD. Investors are likely to continue to take advantage of President Erdogan's ineptitude of an artificially high TRY by continuing to sell while the getting is still good; and *Continue Reducing Risk: Turkish banks and the Turkish economy should be sold, and if the former Vice President Joe Biden actually wins the White house this could be the end of the TRY.

*Train Wreck: The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is keeping interest rates low, and failed to raise interest rates at its latest meeting last week – against consensus of a 200 bp increase. In our view, low rates are likely to result in modest inflation. Despite what feel like punitive capital controls, the Turkish lira (TRY) actually declined 2% on day – nearing 8 TRY/USD achieving another record low and down 35% YTD versus the USD; *Artificially High Turkish Lira: CBT data exhibits that the easing of trading restrictions resulted in foreign investor selling nearly 70% of their previously held Turkish government bonds and equities YTD. Investors are likely to continue to take advantage of President Erdogan's ineptitude of an artificially high TRY by continuing to sell while the getting is still good; and *Continue Reducing Risk: Turkish banks and the Turkish economy should be sold, and if the former Vice President Joe Biden actually wins the White house this could be the end of the TRY.

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Turkey is steadily moving toward a balance-of-payments crisis, and with: pharma companies being asked to take up to 60% haircut on their debt in order to be paid; the belated Moody's downgrade; and little too late central bank interest rate hikes are all a worrying sign that Turkey is entering the point of no return. The introduction of a TRL gray market would crystallize this crisis with significant knock-on impact to global markets; and  *Other Worrisome Factors: The EU Parliament threatened sanctions if Turkey did not cooperate in its dispute with Greece/Cyprus on natural gas claims; a US trial is set to begin on March 1, 2021, with DOJ indicating Halkbank used the US financial system for Iranian money laundering; and under the assumption that Democratic candidate Joe BIden win the US election this would translate into negative readacross to Turkey.

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Turkey is steadily moving toward a balance-of-payments crisis, and with: pharma companies being asked to take up to 60% haircut on their debt in order to be paid; the belated Moody's downgrade; and little too late central bank interest rate hikes are all a worrying sign that Turkey is entering the point of no return. The introduction of a TRL gray market would crystallize this crisis with significant knock-on impact to global markets; and  *Other Worrisome Factors: The EU Parliament threatened sanctions if Turkey did not cooperate in its dispute with Greece/Cyprus on natural gas claims; a US trial is set to begin on March 1, 2021, with DOJ indicating Halkbank used the US financial system for Iranian money laundering; and under the assumption that Democratic candidate Joe BIden win the US election this would translate into negative readacross to Turkey. 

Turkey

Finansbank AS offers retail, small business, corporate banking, and credit card services through its branches in Turkey, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Romania, and Russia, and its Internet site.  The Group also offers life, health, traffic and other insurance, portfolio management, and leasing services.  Finansbank holds equity investments in department stores in Turkey.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Finansbank AS/Turkey (FINBN TI)

Turkey - YELP!

TURKEY: Not five months since his hiring, the CBT Governor has been replaced. The TRL’s decline is troublesome, and a TRL gray market would NOT be...

Thomas J. Monaco

Turkey - Add NDAA Sanctions To The List

TURKEY: The US Congress is set to approve the annual NDAA) next week - several provisions target Turkey. There remain significant risks related to...

Thomas J. Monaco

Turkey – Off With His Head…Again

TURKEY: Central Bank of Turkey Has A New Governor As President Erdogan Removes His Previous Hand-picked Successor. Erdogsnomics Are Not Working.

Thomas J. Monaco

Turkey – Choo Choo

TURKEY: A Crisis Is Coming As a Result of Strongman President Erdogan's Inability to See The forest From The Trees. Rates Too High, Artificially...

Thomas J. Monaco

Turkey – Not Looking Very Promising

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Turkey is steadily moving toward a balance-of-payments crisis, and with: pharma companies being asked to take up to...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)