Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Dr Ing hc F Porsche  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Porsche is EV of 83.6 billion EUR, implied market cap of 88.9 billion EUR, and target base case price target of 98 EUR per share. </li>
<li>This represents 23% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range. Given the relative solid upside, we have a Positive View of the Porsche IPO. </li>
<li>The market related risk is clearly the biggest risk for the Porsche IPO right now in our view. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Porsche is EV of 83.6 billion EUR, implied market cap of 88.9 billion EUR, and target base case price target of 98 EUR per share. 
This represents 23% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range. Given the relative solid upside, we have a Positive View of the Porsche IPO. 
The market related risk is clearly the biggest risk for the Porsche IPO right now in our view. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.</li>
<li>As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we spoke about the company’s past performance and its PHIP updates. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>


Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.
In our previous notes, we spoke about the company’s past performance and its PHIP updates. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


Leapmotor Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - One of the Leaders in 2Q Volumes but Lags on Margins

WM Motor Technology Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wm-motor-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29225:1" rel="noopener">WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH)</a> (WMM) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>WM Motor is a smart EV player in China. As of the latest practicable date, it had a total of four main EV models. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH) (WMM) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
WM Motor is a smart EV player in China. As of the latest practicable date, it had a total of four main EV models. 
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


WM Motor Holding IPO - The Negatives - Has Ample Issues to Contend With

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.</li>
<li>As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.</li>
<li>Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure</li>
</ul>


Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.
As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.
Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure


Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shimano's stock price has declined by 25% year to date on expectations that bike sales will soon start going downhill</li>
<li>We model a GFC-style recession and find that Shimano's valuation has already reflected the worst case scenario</li>
<li>If we are heading for a collapse, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrari-n-v" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21010:1" rel="noopener">Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)</a> should be acting more like Shimano. The valuation discount between the two is as wide as ever</li>
</ul>


Shimano's stock price has declined by 25% year to date on expectations that bike sales will soon start going downhill
We model a GFC-style recession and find that Shimano's valuation has already reflected the worst case scenario
If we are heading for a collapse, then Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) should be acting more like Shimano. The valuation discount between the two is as wide as ever


Italy

Ferrari NV designs and manufactures sports cars. The Company offers new and used vehicles, warranty programs, financial supports, and maintenance, as well as watches, apparels, earphones, caps, and other accessories. Ferrari markets its products worldwide.

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Ferrari NV (RACE IM)

Porsche IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Porsche is EV of 83.6 billion EUR, implied market cap of 88.9 billion EUR, and target base case price target of 98 EUR...

Douglas Kim

Leapmotor Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - One of the Leaders in 2Q Volumes but Lags on Margins

Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

WM Motor Holding IPO - The Negatives - Has Ample Issues to Contend With

WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive...

Sumeet Singh

Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Bullish reversals begun last week in $ACWI, $SPX, and $STOXX Europe 50, with each reversing topside their 4-month downtrends. Now, bullish...

Vermilion Research

Shimano (7309) | Join the Race

We remain bullish on Shimano. The market is assuming that sales and profits collapse next year. We think that valuations already reflect a worst...

Mark Chadwick

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