Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari Retains the Lead; US$1.26bn Potential Inflow

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari RACEs into the Lead; US$1.2bn Potential Inflow

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1 CY23 watch and jewelry sales for HK were up 88% YoY. HK sales for Oriental Watch (30% of revenues but less volatile) will benefit from the recovery in HK.</li>
<li>We estimate China sales will continue to remain resilient as cross-border travel is yet to pick up in a big way. </li>
<li>Trading at 7.5x FY23e and a 14.2% dividend yield, with more than 50% of the market capitalization in cash, the company can pay solid future dividends despite weaker earnings.</li>
</ul>


Q1 CY23 watch and jewelry sales for HK were up 88% YoY. HK sales for Oriental Watch (30% of revenues but less volatile) will benefit from the recovery in HK.
We estimate China sales will continue to remain resilient as cross-border travel is yet to pick up in a big way. 
Trading at 7.5x FY23e and a 14.2% dividend yield, with more than 50% of the market capitalization in cash, the company can pay solid future dividends despite weaker earnings.


Oriental Watch: HK Sales Recovery Continues for Q1 2023,14% Dividend Yield, >50% of Mkt Cap in Cash

<ul>
<li>The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>Historically, these Rebalance events have had <em>significant</em> volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Vonovia Deletion Seems Likely; US$1.2bn Flow for Wolters Kluwer

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Italy

Ferrari NV designs and manufactures sports cars. The Company offers new and used vehicles, warranty programs, financial supports, and maintenance, as well as watches, apparels, earphones, caps, and other accessories. Ferrari markets its products worldwide.

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Ferrari NV (RACE IM)

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari Retains the Lead; US$1.26bn Potential Inflow

If Ferrari's share price does not fall by more than 10% vs other potential ADDs, Ferrari could become an ADD and experience an index inflow of...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari RACEs into the Lead; US$1.2bn Potential Inflow

Vonovia seems like a high-conviction DEL and Ferrari could replace Vonovia in the ES50 index. There could be 16.1 days to sell in Vonovia and 11.6...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Oriental Watch: HK Sales Recovery Continues for Q1 2023,14% Dividend Yield, >50% of Mkt Cap in Cash

Oriental Watch trades at 7.5x PE, with over 50% of the market capitalization as cash and a 14.2% dividend yield. The recovery in HK sales which...

Sameer Taneja

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Vonovia Deletion Seems Likely; US$1.2bn Flow for Wolters Kluwer

There are 17.6 and 16.2 days to trade for the Expected ADD Wolters Kluwer and Expected DEL Vonovia respectively. This is roughly 11%-12% of the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

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