IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Elon Musk tweeted Tuesday afternoon that “Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”. The news sent Tesla’s shares soaring up 11%. Six of Tesla's directors subsequently said they knew about Mr. Musk’s surprise proposal before he tweeted about it and have met several times in the past week to discuss it. However, the debate continues to rage over how Musk could pull off what could be the largest take-private deals in history. Elon Musk’s apparent confidence in taking Tesla…

Elon Musk tweeted Tuesday afternoon that “Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”. The news sent Tesla’s shares soaring up 11%. Six of Tesla's directors subsequently said they knew about Mr. Musk’s surprise proposal before he tweeted about it and have met several times in the past week to discuss it. However, the debate continues to rage over how Musk could pull off what could be the largest take-private deals in history. Elon Musk’s apparent confidence in taking Tesla…

Tesla (TSLA US): The Math for the Take Private Is on Shaky Ground

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Kelusa Asia Focus Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

At the Q3 2016 result the scorecard for Ferrari read as follows ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ferrari-q3-2016-8-beat-on-the-net-profit-upgrades" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6922">Ferrari Q3 2016: 8% Beat On the Net Profit = Upgrades</a> ). 2016 Guidance at the end of Q3 2016<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/020/142/original/Ferrari.png?1486105458" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="20142"></figure>source: company presentation Q3 2016 ( the previous outlook was at the end of Q2 2016 ) Q4 2016 What the company delivered, and what it is promising for 2017<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/020/143/original/Ferrari1.png?1486105796" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="20143"></figure>source: company presentation Q4 2016From the presentation you can see for the full year Ferrari beat estimates on the EBITDA by 4% for the full year and if we do the math by around…

At the Q3 2016 result the scorecard for Ferrari read as follows ( Ferrari Q3 2016: 8% Beat On the Net Profit = Upgrades ). 2016 Guidance at the end of Q3 2016source: company presentation Q3 2016 ( the previous outlook was at the end of Q2 2016 ) Q4 2016 What the company delivered, and what it is promising for 2017source: company presentation Q4 2016From the presentation you can see for the full year Ferrari beat estimates on the EBITDA by 4% for the full year and if we do the math by around…

Ferrari Q4 2016: Convincing Beat, Earnings Upgrade Cycle Continues

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

All Hail Caesar (Trump)! I still remember the time when Obama was elected President. Everyone was celebrating. Japan mentioned they had one city named Obama, and Indonesia was touting how he spent his childhood years there. Of course, Trump is anything but conventional, and neither was his inauguration. Jen here was watching the TV, and mentioned that there were protests in Mexico and Germany about his rise to power...hardly the way to welcome the world's most powerful man. At least, the people…

All Hail Caesar (Trump)! I still remember the time when Obama was elected President. Everyone was celebrating. Japan mentioned they had one city named Obama, and Indonesia was touting how he spent his childhood years there. Of course, Trump is anything but conventional, and neither was his inauguration. Jen here was watching the TV, and mentioned that there were protests in Mexico and Germany about his rise to power...hardly the way to welcome the world's most powerful man. At least, the people…

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David Riedel

Founder

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<ul>
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Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.</li>
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Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.</li>
<li>
China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.</li>
</ul>The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…



Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.

Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.

China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.
The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

The Ferrari Q3 2016 can be summarized in one slide with an upward revision in adj EBITDA of 6% from Q2 2016.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/984/original/Ferrari.png?1478533364" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15984"></figure>source : company presentation10Q filings with the details on the quality of earnings are not out yet. But going through the presentation and the EBIT walk on page 7 of the attached presentation helped me piece together what the P&amp;L could look like when the filings are released. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/985/original/RACE3.png?1478533902" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15985"></figure>source : filings, assumptions based on the presentation of Q3 2016 for data pertaining to the quarter Jump in…

The Ferrari Q3 2016 can be summarized in one slide with an upward revision in adj EBITDA of 6% from Q2 2016.source : company presentation10Q filings with the details on the quality of earnings are not out yet. But going through the presentation and the EBIT walk on page 7 of the attached presentation helped me piece together what the P&amp;L could look like when the filings are released. source : filings, assumptions based on the presentation of Q3 2016 for data pertaining to the quarter Jump in…

Ferrari Q3 2016: 8% Beat On the Net Profit = Upgrades

Italy

Ferrari NV designs and manufactures sports cars. The Company offers new and used vehicles, warranty programs, financial supports, and maintenance, as well as watches, apparels, earphones, caps, and other accessories. Ferrari markets its products worldwide.

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Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)

Tesla (TSLA US): The Math for the Take Private Is on Shaky Ground

Elon Musk tweeted Tuesday afternoon that “Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”. The news sent Tesla’s shares soaring up...

Arun George

Ferrari Q4 2016: Convincing Beat, Earnings Upgrade Cycle Continues

At the Q3 2016 result the scorecard for Ferrari read as follows ( Ferrari Q3 2016: 8% Beat On the Net Profit = Upgrades ). 2016 Guidance at the end...

Sameer Taneja

Geopolitics, Trump, & Thailand

All Hail Caesar (Trump)! I still remember the time when Obama was elected President. Everyone was celebrating. Japan mentioned they had one city...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia. Mexico: Fitch downgrades...

David Riedel

Ferrari Q3 2016: 8% Beat On the Net Profit = Upgrades

The Ferrari Q3 2016 can be summarized in one slide with an upward revision in adj EBITDA of 6% from Q2 2016.source : company presentation10Q...

Sameer Taneja

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