SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>kopi-C with Far East Orchard’s Group CEO: ‘We’re building an enduring Singapore real estate enterprise’ Nearly a decade after entering the student housing market in the United Kingdom in 2015, Singaporean real estate company Far East Orchard continues to see massive potential for growth.</li><li>Established since 1967, Far East Orchard has a track record in real estate development, investment and management across residential, commercial, hospitality and Purpose-Built Student Accommodation ("PBSA") properties in Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and the United Kingdom ("UK").</li></ul>

kopi-C with Far East Orchard’s Group CEO: ‘We’re building an enduring Singapore real estate enterprise’ Nearly a decade after entering the student housing market in the United Kingdom in 2015, Singaporean real estate company Far East Orchard continues to see massive potential for growth.Established since 1967, Far East Orchard has a track record in real estate development, investment and management across residential, commercial, hospitality and Purpose-Built Student Accommodation ("PBSA") properties in Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and the United Kingdom ("UK").

kopi-C with Far East Orchard’s Group CEO: ‘We’re building an enduring Singapore real estate enterprise’

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<p>ASCOTT Residence Trust Ascott Trust: HMN -0.51% (ART) announced last week that it will acquire a student accommodation property in Texas, in the United States, which will be its third student accommodation asset investment this year.</p>

<p>While ART may be the first Singapore-listed trust to venture into student housing as S-Reits continue to diversify across property sub-segments, there are other Singapore-listed companies such as Singapore Press Holdings SPH: T39 +1.03% , Far East Orchard Far East Orchard: O10 -3.64% , Centurion Corporation Centurion: OU8 0% , Wee Hur Wee Hur: E3B 0% , and Metro Holdings Metro: M01 0% that invest, own, and manage purpose built student accommodation assets (PBSA).</p>

<p>According to Knight Frank, global investments in PBSA reached a record US$16.3 billion in 2018.</p>

<p>Savills considers the PBSA sector to be counter-cyclical and notes in a report that it was one of the few asset classes that showed resilience during the global financial crisis in 2008.</p>

<p>In addition, data collated by Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) has shown that over a third of deals for student housing in 2021 so far have been by private equity firms, as investors continue to seek exposure to alternative real estate sectors.</p>

<p>ART's most recent acquisition is a freehold 1,005-bed student accommodation asset in Lubbock, Texas, for S$93.8 million. Wildwood Lubbock is a cottage-style property that is fully leased for the 2021 academic year and serves over 40,000 students from Texas Tech University.</p>

<p>The trust expects the acquisition to increase its pro forma FY2020 distribution per stapled security by approximately 1.5 per cent.</p>

<p>It also notes the longer average leases of student housing at one year, versus hotel stays.</p>

<p>ART has acquired four longer-stay accommodation assets this year, after expanding its strategy and diversifying its portfolio from traditional hospitality assets, further increasing its resilience and stable income.</p>

<p>Its two other student housing assets are in Atlanta (acquired in February 2021 for S$126.3 million) and South Carolina (acquired in June 2021 for S$73.4 million), both in the US.</p>

<p>In June 2021, ART also acquired three rental housing properties in Sapporo, Japan for S$85.2 million.</p>

<p>Following the acquisitions, ART's rental housing and student accommodation properties will comprise about 11 per cent of its portfolio value, up from 5 per cent in end 2020. It has a medium-term target to expand it to 15 to 20 per cent.</p>

<p>CDL Hospitality Trust CDL HTrust: J85 -0.85% (CDLHT) in July this year has announced that it is revising its principal investment strategy to include rental housing, student accommodation and senior housing assets.</p>

<p>The trust sees the revision of its strategy as a way to bring more diversification to its portfolio, enhance income stability as tenants typically have longer lengths of stay compared to hotels, and expand its range of investment opportunities given its broader mandate.</p>

<p>Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) has a portfolio of 28 PBSA assets in the UK with a total of 7,723 beds under its brands Capitol Students, Student Castle, and Galileo Residenz.</p>

<p>Far East Orchard owns a PBSA portfolio in the UK comprising over 3,500 beds in the cities of Brighton, Bristol, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Sheffield.</p>

<p>Centurion Corporation has a PBSA segment with 19 assets in Australia, South Korea, the UK and US that accounted for 25 per cent of its revenue in H12021.</p>

<p>Wee Hur Holdings' PBSA business is undertaken via two of its funds which manage two operational assets, one asset pending operations and the rest at various stages of development.</p>

<p>Metro Holdings' PBSA portfolio consists of two properties in Warwick and Bristol, in the UK, and a 7.3 per cent investment in the Mapletree Global Student Accommodation Private Trust. </p>

<p><strong><em>REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, <a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/ascott-joins-trend-of-hospitality-reits-pivoting-to-student-housing">read</a><a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/10-s-reits-yielding-long-term-annualised-returns"> </a>the original version.</em></strong></p>
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ASCOTT Residence Trust Ascott Trust: HMN -0.51% (ART) announced last week that it will acquire a student accommodation property in Texas, in the United States, which will be its third student accommodation asset investment this year.

While ART may be the first Singapore-listed trust to venture into student housing as S-Reits continue to diversify across property sub-segments, there are other Singapore-listed companies such as Singapore Press Holdings SPH: T39 +1.03% , Far East Orchard Far East Orchard: O10 -3.64% , Centurion Corporation Centurion: OU8 0% , Wee Hur Wee Hur: E3B 0% , and Metro Holdings Metro: M01 0% that invest, own, and manage purpose built student accommodation assets (PBSA).

According to Knight Frank, global investments in PBSA reached a record US$16.3 billion in 2018.

Savills considers the PBSA sector to be counter-cyclical and notes in a report that it was one of the few asset classes that showed resilience during the global financial crisis in 2008.

In addition, data collated by Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) has shown that over a third of deals for student housing in 2021 so far have been by private equity firms, as investors continue to seek exposure to alternative real estate sectors.

ART's most recent acquisition is a freehold 1,005-bed student accommodation asset in Lubbock, Texas, for S$93.8 million. Wildwood Lubbock is a cottage-style property that is fully leased for the 2021 academic year and serves over 40,000 students from Texas Tech University.

The trust expects the acquisition to increase its pro forma FY2020 distribution per stapled security by approximately 1.5 per cent.

It also notes the longer average leases of student housing at one year, versus hotel stays.

ART has acquired four longer-stay accommodation assets this year, after expanding its strategy and diversifying its portfolio from traditional hospitality assets, further increasing its resilience and stable income.

Its two other student housing assets are in Atlanta (acquired in February 2021 for S$126.3 million) and South Carolina (acquired in June 2021 for S$73.4 million), both in the US.

In June 2021, ART also acquired three rental housing properties in Sapporo, Japan for S$85.2 million.

Following the acquisitions, ART's rental housing and student accommodation properties will comprise about 11 per cent of its portfolio value, up from 5 per cent in end 2020. It has a medium-term target to expand it to 15 to 20 per cent.

CDL Hospitality Trust CDL HTrust: J85 -0.85% (CDLHT) in July this year has announced that it is revising its principal investment strategy to include rental housing, student accommodation and senior housing assets.

The trust sees the revision of its strategy as a way to bring more diversification to its portfolio, enhance income stability as tenants typically have longer lengths of stay compared to hotels, and expand its range of investment opportunities given its broader mandate.

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) has a portfolio of 28 PBSA assets in the UK with a total of 7,723 beds under its brands Capitol Students, Student Castle, and Galileo Residenz.

Far East Orchard owns a PBSA portfolio in the UK comprising over 3,500 beds in the cities of Brighton, Bristol, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Sheffield.

Centurion Corporation has a PBSA segment with 19 assets in Australia, South Korea, the UK and US that accounted for 25 per cent of its revenue in H12021.

Wee Hur Holdings' PBSA business is undertaken via two of its funds which manage two operational assets, one asset pending operations and the rest at various stages of development.

Metro Holdings' PBSA portfolio consists of two properties in Warwick and Bristol, in the UK, and a 7.3 per cent investment in the Mapletree Global Student Accommodation Private Trust. 

REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



REIT Watch - Ascott joins trend of hospitality Reits pivoting to student housing

<p>Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.&nbsp;SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.</p>
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<p>Singapore Company Update</p>
<h2>Far East Orchard Limited</h2>
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<h3>Poised to rerate as earnings bottom</h3>
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<h3>Investment Thesis:</h3>
<p><strong>Deep value and compelling reasons to trade higher.</strong> Far East Orchard (FEOR) is currently trading at a TTM P/B multiple of 0.41x, at a deep discount to its hospitality peers (0.82x), PBSA peers (0.66x), and historical average (-0.43 S.D. of its 4-year historical mean). As FEOR pivots away from the lumpy residential business into recurring income-focused businesses (Hospitality and PBSA), we believe that earnings volatility will minimise and the stock should re-rate higher.</p>
<p>Aims to be a significant PBSA player; EBIT from PBSA to grow at a CAGR of 21.6%. FEOR plans to expand the number of PBSA beds from 3,561 to 5,000 in 2025. This asset class has shown resilience against economic downturns and we believe that this segment will be FEOR’s main growth engine in the next few years. We project its EBIT to grow at a CAGR of 21.6% from FY20-25F.</p>
<p><strong>Recovery at its hospitality segment to boost earnings in FY21/22F.</strong><br>We believe that the gradual return of leisure travel in Singapore is imminent with Singapore’s high vaccination rate and its ongoing discussions to establish travel corridors. FEOR aims to add c.8,500 hotel rooms by 2025 and based on our estimates, it could translate to c.S$32m and c.S$7m of additional revenue and EBIT respectively.</p>
<p><strong>Valuation:</strong><br>Maintain BUY and TP of S$1.70. Our TP is based on a blend of its 10-year DCF valuation (5.14% WACC, 2% terminal growth) followed by a 10-year transition using the H-Model, and 0.60x FY21F P/B multiple.</p>
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Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.&nbsp;SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.



Singapore Company Update
Far East Orchard Limited



Poised to rerate as earnings bottom



Investment Thesis:
Deep value and compelling reasons to trade higher. Far East Orchard (FEOR) is currently trading at a TTM P/B multiple of 0.41x, at a deep discount to its hospitality peers (0.82x), PBSA peers (0.66x), and historical average (-0.43 S.D. of its 4-year historical mean). As FEOR pivots away from the lumpy residential business into recurring income-focused businesses (Hospitality and PBSA), we believe that earnings volatility will minimise and the stock should re-rate higher.
Aims to be a significant PBSA player; EBIT from PBSA to grow at a CAGR of 21.6%. FEOR plans to expand the number of PBSA beds from 3,561 to 5,000 in 2025. This asset class has shown resilience against economic downturns and we believe that this segment will be FEOR’s main growth engine in the next few years. We project its EBIT to grow at a CAGR of 21.6% from FY20-25F.
Recovery at its hospitality segment to boost earnings in FY21/22F. We believe that the gradual return of leisure travel in Singapore is imminent with Singapore’s high vaccination rate and its ongoing discussions to establish travel corridors. FEOR aims to add c.8,500 hotel rooms by 2025 and based on our estimates, it could translate to c.S$32m and c.S$7m of additional revenue and EBIT respectively.
Valuation: Maintain BUY and TP of S$1.70. Our TP is based on a blend of its 10-year DCF valuation (5.14% WACC, 2% terminal growth) followed by a 10-year transition using the H-Model, and 0.60x FY21F P/B multiple.










(Non-SGX Report) Far East Orchard Limited: Poised to Rerate as Earnings Bottom

<p><em><strong>Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.&nbsp;</strong>SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.</em></p>
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<p>Singapore Company Focus</p>
<h2>Far East Orchard Limited</h2>
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<h3>Deep value within</h3>
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<li>Deep value and compelling reasons to trade higher&nbsp;</li>
<li>EBIT from PBSA will grow at a CAGR of 19.6%</li>
<li>Nearing a comeback for its hospitality segment</li>
<li>We initiate coverage with BUY and TP of S$1.70</li>
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<p><strong>Deep value and compelling reasons to trade higher.</strong> Far East Orchard (FEO) is currently trading at a TTM P/B multiple of 0.40x, which is at a discount to its hospitality peers (0.81x), PBSA peers (0.64x), and historical average (-0.54sd of its 4-year historical mean). With a pivot away from lumpy residential business into more recurring income focus from its hospitality and PBSA portfolio, we believe that earnings volatility will be greatly minimized. With greater earnings visibility, we expect the group to return to a “REIT-like” payout of 6 scts/share in FY22F, translating to a yield of c.5.5%.</p>
<p><strong>Ambition to be a significant PBSA player; EBIT from PBSA will grow at a CAGR of 19.6%.</strong> FEO aims to grow its number of PBSA beds from 3,561 beds to 5,000 beds in 2025. This asset class has shown resilience against economic downturns and we believe that its PBSA business will be FEO’s main growth engine in the next few years, as we project its EBIT to grow at a CAGR of 19.6% from FY20-25F and in the medium term, contributing to 55% of its EBIT in FY25F.</p>
<p><strong>Nearing a comeback for its hospitality segment to boost earnings in FY21/22F.</strong> We believe that the gradual return of leisure travel in Singapore is imminent with Singapore’s high vaccination rate and its ongoing discussions. FEO aims to add an additional c.8,500 hotel rooms by 2025 and based on our estimates, it could translate to c.S$32m and c.S$7m of additional revenue and EBIT.</p>
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Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.&nbsp;SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.




Singapore Company Focus
Far East Orchard Limited




Deep value within





Deep value and compelling reasons to trade higher&nbsp;
EBIT from PBSA will grow at a CAGR of 19.6%
Nearing a comeback for its hospitality segment
We initiate coverage with BUY and TP of S$1.70





Deep value and compelling reasons to trade higher. Far East Orchard (FEO) is currently trading at a TTM P/B multiple of 0.40x, which is at a discount to its hospitality peers (0.81x), PBSA peers (0.64x), and historical average (-0.54sd of its 4-year historical mean). With a pivot away from lumpy residential business into more recurring income focus from its hospitality and PBSA portfolio, we believe that earnings volatility will be greatly minimized. With greater earnings visibility, we expect the group to return to a “REIT-like” payout of 6 scts/share in FY22F, translating to a yield of c.5.5%.
Ambition to be a significant PBSA player; EBIT from PBSA will grow at a CAGR of 19.6%. FEO aims to grow its number of PBSA beds from 3,561 beds to 5,000 beds in 2025. This asset class has shown resilience against economic downturns and we believe that its PBSA business will be FEO’s main growth engine in the next few years, as we project its EBIT to grow at a CAGR of 19.6% from FY20-25F and in the medium term, contributing to 55% of its EBIT in FY25F.
Nearing a comeback for its hospitality segment to boost earnings in FY21/22F. We believe that the gradual return of leisure travel in Singapore is imminent with Singapore’s high vaccination rate and its ongoing discussions. FEO aims to add an additional c.8,500 hotel rooms by 2025 and based on our estimates, it could translate to c.S$32m and c.S$7m of additional revenue and EBIT.

















(Non-SGX Report) Far East Orchard Limited: Deep Value Within

<div><em><strong>Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.</strong>&nbsp;SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.</em></div>
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<p>Company Update</p>
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<h2>Far East Orchard Limited</h2>
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<p><strong>COMPANY DESCRIPTION</strong><br>Far East Orchard Limited (FEO or the Company) is a property developer, hospitality owner and operator with a diversified property investment portfolio comprising purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) and medical suites.</p>
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<p><strong>SUMMARY</strong><br>For the financial year ended 31 December 2020 (FY2020), the Group, comprising FEO and its subsidiaries, reported a 28.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in revenue to S$112.2 million, mainly due to the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on its hospitality business. However, higher revenue from the Group’s property business, largely owing to resilient performance by its UK PBSA business, had helped to offset the weaker hospitality business performance. During the period, the Group implemented cost containment measures which contributed to an 8.4% y-o-y decline in total expenses. Meanwhile, the Group recorded a share of loss from joint ventures of S$7.6 million on weaker performance from its hospitality joint ventures in Australia and Europe. This was partially offset by profit recognition of S$12.4 million from the Group’s joint venture Woods Square project in Singapore. Consequently, profit attributable to equity holders amounted to S$1.5 million as compared to S$26.0 million a year ago. Earnings per share (EPS) amounted to 0.35 cents for the period. Meanwhile, a final dividend of 3.0 cents per share for FY2020 would be paid on or around 5 July 2021.</p>
<p><strong>RECOMMENDATION</strong><br>Since our last company update issued on 25 September 2020, we note that FEO’s share price has fluctuated though it has broadly increased and reached S$1.180 recently. As of late, the share price has traded between S$1.110 and S$1.180. In terms of valuation, we note from our peer comparison analysis that FEO is currently trading at a P/B multiple of 0.43x, lower than the peer average P/B of 0.63x. We believe this could suggest FEO may be undervalued. Adopting a relative valuation approach, we estimate a target price of S$1.714 if FEO’s P/B were to adjust to the peer average of 0.63x. This current target price implies a 46.5% upside to the current share price of S$1.170. Meanwhile, we note that the outlook for the Group’s hospitality business remains challenged in the near term against a weak international travel backdrop. Nonetheless, the hospitality sectors in Singapore and Australia are gradually recovering, and we are positive on the outlook of these markets in the longer term. Further, strong demand for higher education in the UK is expected to support the PBSA market, and we believe the Group’s focus on expanding its PBSA business would underpin future earnings. Given the above, we will maintain a buy recommendation on FEO.</p>
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Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.&nbsp;SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.






Company Update




Far East Orchard Limited














COMPANY DESCRIPTION Far East Orchard Limited (FEO or the Company) is a property developer, hospitality owner and operator with a diversified property investment portfolio comprising purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) and medical suites.




SUMMARY For the financial year ended 31 December 2020 (FY2020), the Group, comprising FEO and its subsidiaries, reported a 28.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in revenue to S$112.2 million, mainly due to the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on its hospitality business. However, higher revenue from the Group’s property business, largely owing to resilient performance by its UK PBSA business, had helped to offset the weaker hospitality business performance. During the period, the Group implemented cost containment measures which contributed to an 8.4% y-o-y decline in total expenses. Meanwhile, the Group recorded a share of loss from joint ventures of S$7.6 million on weaker performance from its hospitality joint ventures in Australia and Europe. This was partially offset by profit recognition of S$12.4 million from the Group’s joint venture Woods Square project in Singapore. Consequently, profit attributable to equity holders amounted to S$1.5 million as compared to S$26.0 million a year ago. Earnings per share (EPS) amounted to 0.35 cents for the period. Meanwhile, a final dividend of 3.0 cents per share for FY2020 would be paid on or around 5 July 2021.
RECOMMENDATION Since our last company update issued on 25 September 2020, we note that FEO’s share price has fluctuated though it has broadly increased and reached S$1.180 recently. As of late, the share price has traded between S$1.110 and S$1.180. In terms of valuation, we note from our peer comparison analysis that FEO is currently trading at a P/B multiple of 0.43x, lower than the peer average P/B of 0.63x. We believe this could suggest FEO may be undervalued. Adopting a relative valuation approach, we estimate a target price of S$1.714 if FEO’s P/B were to adjust to the peer average of 0.63x. This current target price implies a 46.5% upside to the current share price of S$1.170. Meanwhile, we note that the outlook for the Group’s hospitality business remains challenged in the near term against a weak international travel backdrop. Nonetheless, the hospitality sectors in Singapore and Australia are gradually recovering, and we are positive on the outlook of these markets in the longer term. Further, strong demand for higher education in the UK is expected to support the PBSA market, and we believe the Group’s focus on expanding its PBSA business would underpin future earnings. Given the above, we will maintain a buy recommendation on FEO.










(Non-SGX Report) Company Update: Far East Orchard Limited

Singapore

Far East Orchard Limited operates a diversified portfolio focusing on property development, hospitality real estate development and management and healthcare real estate. The Company operates a hospitality portfolio spanning Australia, China, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Singapore and owns purpose-built medical suites in Singapore.

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Far East Orchard (FEOR SP)

kopi-C with Far East Orchard’s Group CEO: ‘We’re building an enduring Singapore real estate enterprise’

kopi-C with Far East Orchard’s Group CEO: ‘We’re building an enduring Singapore real estate enterprise’ Nearly a decade after entering the student...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

REIT Watch - Ascott joins trend of hospitality Reits pivoting to student housing

ASCOTT Residence Trust Ascott Trust: HMN -0.51% (ART) announced last week that it will acquire a student accommodation property...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

(Non-SGX Report) Far East Orchard Limited: Poised to Rerate as Earnings Bottom

Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX. SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

(Non-SGX Report) Far East Orchard Limited: Deep Value Within

Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX. SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

(Non-SGX Report) Company Update: Far East Orchard Limited

Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX. SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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