Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years</li>
<li>This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown</li>
<li>We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets</li>
</ul>


Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years
This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown
We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets


Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

<ul>
<li>In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets</li>
<li>We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements</li>
<li>The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view <a href="https://vimeo.com/911098574/5874dfd757?share=copy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this 3-minute version</a> with a few highlights.</li>
</ul>


In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets
We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements
The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view this 3-minute version with a few highlights.


Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

<ul>
<li>China's new home ('commercial residential') sales dropped from the peak of 1.57 billion sqm (GFA) in 2021 to 0.95 billion sqm in 2023</li>
<li>Major 9 cities  fared better, but an important shift took place there, with the secondary markets taking over the new home sales for the first time in 2023</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the dynamics of this shift, drawing on data on primary and secondary sales and house prices, as well as the local anecdotal evidence </li>
</ul>


China's new home ('commercial residential') sales dropped from the peak of 1.57 billion sqm (GFA) in 2021 to 0.95 billion sqm in 2023
Major 9 cities  fared better, but an important shift took place there, with the secondary markets taking over the new home sales for the first time in 2023
In this note, we look at the dynamics of this shift, drawing on data on primary and secondary sales and house prices, as well as the local anecdotal evidence 


China Property - A Shift To Secondary Markets?

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p><br/> The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.<br/></p>

  The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days. 

Chinese Property Weekly - 11 March 2022 - Lucror Analytics

<ul>
<li>Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected</li>
<li>In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the 'wisdom of crowds' working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline</li>
<li>The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS</li>
</ul>


Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected
In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the 'wisdom of crowds' working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline
The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS


China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals - Mid-Year 2024 Check And... Some History

China

Fantasia Holdings Group Company Ltd. is a property developer and provider of real estate agency and property management services in the Peoples Republic of China. The Company develops urban commercial complexes and residential properties in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone, the Pearl River Delta region, the Yangtze River Delta region and the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan region.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fantasia Holdings Group Co (1777 HK)

Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

China Property - Take a tour of these four data visualizations/animations of the city-level house price changes to get a finer perspective on...

Robert Ciemniak

Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

China: As the Two Meetings kick off this week, our China Property Outlook 2024 webinar from February dives deeper into the China housing market,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - A Shift To Secondary Markets?

China Property / Housing Markets: Real Estate Foresight's take on the 2024 outlook for new home sales, new starts, and the major themes for the...

Robert Ciemniak

Chinese Property Weekly - 11 March 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments,...

Lucror Analytics

China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals - Mid-Year 2024 Check And... Some History

Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)