Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Australian grocery industry continues to evolve and everyday dry groceries are likely to become even more commoditised. Aldi re-established the discount channel in Australia and is forecast to ultimately capture close to 10% market share. On this premise, we have re-examined our assumptions on market share and profitability for the Australian supermarket sector and conclude EBIT margins are expected to tighten further. Price competition has heated up as the two dominating players, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1">Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)</a> and Coles, expand their everyday low price lines to preserve market share. The price cutting has resulted in food price deflation and tightening of operating margins, especially at Woolworths. Coles plans to pass on efficiency gains to consumers by ongoing price cutting, and we expect Woolworths to follow suit, effectively capping operating margins of their supermarket businesses at sustainable levels of 4%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14632:1">Metcash Ltd (MTS AU)</a> network of independent retailers is exposed to the same dynamics, and is continuing with its Price Match programme. However, IGA stores are less able to compete on price than their integrated competition and we expect the network to continue losing a disproportionately high amount of share. On top of the near-term challenges, we identify two conceivable longer-term threats. The potential entry of discounter Lidl or online grocer AmazonFresh, or both, would introduce further pricing tension and increase pressure on margins even more.These key changes lowered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1">Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)</a>' fair value estimate to AUD 22 from AUD 28. We reduced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1104" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1">Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU)</a> fair value estimate to AUD 39.00 per share from AUD 42.00, predominantly due to lower margin estimates. For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14632:1">Metcash Ltd (MTS AU)</a>, we have materially increased our fair value estimate to AUD 1.80 from AUD 1.10 due to a much-improved outlook on IGA's market shareAnalyst: Johannes Faul, CFA

The Australian grocery industry continues to evolve and everyday dry groceries are likely to become even more commoditised. Aldi re-established the discount channel in Australia and is forecast to ultimately capture close to 10% market share. On this premise, we have re-examined our assumptions on market share and profitability for the Australian supermarket sector and conclude EBIT margins are expected to tighten further. Price competition has heated up as the two dominating players, Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) and Coles, expand their everyday low price lines to preserve market share. The price cutting has resulted in food price deflation and tightening of operating margins, especially at Woolworths. Coles plans to pass on efficiency gains to consumers by ongoing price cutting, and we expect Woolworths to follow suit, effectively capping operating margins of their supermarket businesses at sustainable levels of 4%. Metcash Ltd (MTS AU) network of independent retailers is exposed to the same dynamics, and is continuing with its Price Match programme. However, IGA stores are less able to compete on price than their integrated competition and we expect the network to continue losing a disproportionately high amount of share. On top of the near-term challenges, we identify two conceivable longer-term threats. The potential entry of discounter Lidl or online grocer AmazonFresh, or both, would introduce further pricing tension and increase pressure on margins even more.These key changes lowered Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)' fair value estimate to AUD 22 from AUD 28. We reduced Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU) fair value estimate to AUD 39.00 per share from AUD 42.00, predominantly due to lower margin estimates. For Metcash Ltd (MTS AU), we have materially increased our fair value estimate to AUD 1.80 from AUD 1.10 due to a much-improved outlook on IGA's market shareAnalyst: Johannes Faul, CFA 

Aldi's Presence Makes a Return to Duopoly-Like Margins Unlikely

Australia

F.F.I. Holdings Limited produces and sells baking goods including jam fillings, processed apple, stabilized fruit products and other products for the bakery and pastry cooks industries. The Company also manufactures fresh sausages, bacons, small meat products, chocolate and confectionery products.

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F.F.I. Holdings (FFI AU)

Aldi's Presence Makes a Return to Duopoly-Like Margins Unlikely

The Australian grocery industry continues to evolve and everyday dry groceries are likely to become even more commoditised. Aldi re-established the...

Morningstar, Inc.

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